Causal Discovery in the Era of Agents

Recent attempts to combine large language models (LLMs) with causal discovery ask models to infer pairwise directions, propose graph structures, or inject language-model outputs as priors and constraints. These approaches promise faster analysis, but they also obscure whether a causal evidence is supported by data and assumptions or by textual associations, prompt artifacts and hallucinated mechanisms. We argue for a different role for agents in causal discovery. Agents should inspect data, retrieve context, explain method assumptions and clarify graph outputs, but they should not supply edges, orientations, priors, constraints or causal conclusions. We propose the principle that agents assist the workflow, while causal claims remain grounded in data, explicit assumptions, formal algorithms, diagnostics and user or domain-expert decisions. We instantiate this principle in causal-learn+, an online platform that coordinates data analysis, preprocessing, method recommendation, expert-knowledge incorporation, formal discovery and interpretation around the algorithmic ecosystem of causal-learn. A case study on Big Five personality data illustrates agent-assisted pipeline of causal discovery without turning language-model unreliability into causal evidence. The platform is available at causallearn.com.

Causal Modeling of Selection in Evolution

Understanding potential selection in data is crucial for causal discovery; we argue that "selection" in common narratives takes two forms, which we term static and evolutionary selection, respectively. Static selection refers to a one-shot filtering process where observed data consist of a subset of the population of interest, as in survey volunteer bias. Evolutionary selection, in contrast, operates through repeated rounds of differential fitness in reproduction, where observed data constitute the latest generation shaped by a historical trajectory, as in immune adaptation, antibiotic resistance, and social norm emergence. Existing methods largely conflate these two forms and rely on an identical graphical model of selection. We show that this model is valid for static settings but fails to characterize data under evolution, yielding false discovery results. To address this, we introduce a new model that specifically characterizes evolutionary selection, and develop a sound and complete procedure for identifying such models from data across one or multiple environments or generations. Experimental results validate the method's ability to uncover the relevant mechanisms underlying evolution from data.

Score-Based Causal Discovery of Latent Variable Causal Models

Identifying latent variables and the causal structure involving them is essential across various scientific fields. While many existing works fall under the category of constraint-based methods (with e.g. conditional independence or rank deficiency tests), they may face empirical challenges such as testing-order dependency, error propagation, and choosing an appropriate significance level. These issues can potentially be mitigated by properly designed score-based methods, such as Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) (Chickering, 2002) in the specific setting without latent variables. Yet, formulating score-based methods with latent variables is highly challenging. In this work, we develop score-based methods that are capable of identifying causal structures containing causally-related latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we show that a properly formulated scoring function can achieve score equivalence and consistency for structure learning of latent variable causal models. We further provide a characterization of the degrees of freedom for the marginal over the observed variables under multiple structural assumptions considered in the literature, and accordingly develop both exact and continuous score-based methods. This offers a unified view of several existing constraint-based methods with different structural assumptions. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

VLAA-GUI: Knowing When to Stop, Recover, and Search, A Modular Framework for GUI Automation

Autonomous GUI agents face two fundamental challenges: early stopping, where agents prematurely declare success without verifiable evidence, and repetitive loops, where agents cycle through the same failing actions without recovery. We present VLAA-GUI, a modular GUI agentic framework built around three integrated components that guide the system on when to Stop, Recover, and Search. First, a mandatory Completeness Verifier enforces UI-observable success criteria and verification at every finish step -- with an agent-level verifier that cross-examines completion claims with decision rules, rejecting those lacking direct visual evidence. Second, a mandatory Loop Breaker provides multi-tier filtering: switching interaction mode after repeated failures, forcing strategy changes after persistent screen-state recurrence, and binding reflection signals to strategy shifts. Third, an on-demand Search Agent searches online for unfamiliar workflows by directly querying a capable LLM with search ability, returning results as plain text. We additionally integrate a Coding Agent for code-intensive actions and a Grounding Agent for precise action grounding, both invoked on demand when required. We evaluate VLAA-GUI across five top-tier backbones, including Opus 4.5, 4.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, on two benchmarks with Linux and Windows tasks, achieving top performance on both (77.5% on OSWorld and 61.0% on WindowsAgentArena). Notably, three of the five backbones surpass human performance (72.4%) on OSWorld in a single pass. Ablation studies show that all three proposed components consistently improve a strong backbone, while a weaker backbone benefits more from these tools when the step budget is sufficient. Further analysis also shows that the Loop Breaker nearly halves wasted steps for loop-prone models.

Distributional Equivalence in Linear Non-Gaussian Latent-Variable Cyclic Causal Models: Characterization and Learning

Causal discovery with latent variables is a fundamental task. Yet most existing methods rely on strong structural assumptions, such as enforcing specific indicator patterns for latents or restricting how they can interact with others. We argue that a core obstacle to a general, structural-assumption-free approach is the lack of an equivalence characterization: without knowing what can be identified, one generally cannot design methods for how to identify it. In this work, we aim to close this gap for linear non-Gaussian models. We establish the graphical criterion for when two graphs with arbitrary latent structure and cycles are distributionally equivalent, that is, they induce the same observed distribution set. Key to our approach is a new tool, edge rank constraints, which fills a missing piece in the toolbox for latent-variable causal discovery in even broader settings. We further provide a procedure to traverse the whole equivalence class and develop an algorithm to recover models from data up to such equivalence. To our knowledge, this is the first equivalence characterization with latent variables in any parametric setting without structural assumptions, and hence the first structural-assumption-free discovery method. Code and an interactive demo are available at https://equiv.cc.

Latent Variable Causal Discovery under Selection Bias

Addressing selection bias in latent variable causal discovery is important yet underexplored, largely due to a lack of suitable statistical tools: While various tools beyond basic conditional independencies have been developed to handle latent variables, none have been adapted for selection bias. We make an attempt by studying rank constraints, which, as a generalization to conditional independence constraints, exploits the ranks of covariance submatrices in linear Gaussian models. We show that although selection can significantly complicate the joint distribution, interestingly, the ranks in the biased covariance matrices still preserve meaningful information about both causal structures and selection mechanisms. We provide a graph-theoretic characterization of such rank constraints. Using this tool, we demonstrate that the one-factor model, a classical latent variable model, can be identified under selection bias. Simulations and real-world experiments confirm the effectiveness of using our rank constraints.

Identification of Causal Direction under an Arbitrary Number of Latent Confounders

Recovering causal structure in the presence of latent variables is an important but challenging task. While many methods have been proposed to handle it, most of them require strict and/or untestable assumptions on the causal structure. In real-world scenarios, observed variables may be affected by multiple latent variables simultaneously, which, generally speaking, cannot be handled by these methods. In this paper, we consider the linear, non-Gaussian case, and make use of the joint higher-order cumulant matrix of the observed variables constructed in a specific way. We show that, surprisingly, causal asymmetry between two observed variables can be directly seen from the rank deficiency properties of such higher-order cumulant matrices, even in the presence of an arbitrary number of latent confounders. Identifiability results are established, and the corresponding identification methods do not even involve iterative procedures. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and asymptotic correctness of our proposed method.

Score-based Greedy Search for Structure Identification of Partially Observed Linear Causal Models

Identifying the structure of a partially observed causal system is essential to various scientific fields. Recent advances have focused on constraint-based causal discovery to solve this problem, and yet in practice these methods often face challenges related to multiple testing and error propagation. These issues could be mitigated by a score-based method and thus it has raised great attention whether there exists a score-based greedy search method that can handle the partially observed scenario. In this work, we propose the first score-based greedy search method for the identification of structure involving latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we propose Generalized N Factor Model and establish the global consistency: the true structure including latent variables can be identified up to the Markov equivalence class by using score. We then design Latent variable Greedy Equivalence Search (LGES), a greedy search algorithm for this class of model with well-defined operators, which search very efficiently over the graph space to find the optimal structure. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-life data validate the effectiveness of our method (code will be publicly available).

Type Information-Assisted Self-Supervised Knowledge Graph Denoising

Knowledge graphs serve as critical resources supporting intelligent systems, but they can be noisy due to imperfect automatic generation processes. Existing approaches to noise detection often rely on external facts, logical rule constraints, or structural embeddings. These methods are often challenged by imperfect entity alignment, flexible knowledge graph construction, and overfitting on structures. In this paper, we propose to exploit the consistency between entity and relation type information for noise detection, resulting a novel self-supervised knowledge graph denoising method that avoids those problems. We formalize type inconsistency noise as triples that deviate from the majority with respect to type-dependent reasoning along the topological structure. Specifically, we first extract a compact representation of a given knowledge graph via an encoder that models the type dependencies of triples. Then, the decoder reconstructs the original input knowledge graph based on the compact representation. It is worth noting that, our proposal has the potential to address the problems of knowledge graph compression and completion, although this is not our focus. For the specific task of noise detection, the discrepancy between the reconstruction results and the input knowledge graph provides an opportunity for denoising, which is facilitated by the type consistency embedded in our method. Experimental validation demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach in detecting potential noise in real-world data.

When Selection Meets Intervention: Additional Complexities in Causal Discovery

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B tests on mobile applications target existing users only, and gene perturbation studies typically focus on specific cell types, such as cancer cells. Ignoring this bias leads to incorrect causal discovery results. Even when recognized, the existing paradigm for interventional causal discovery still fails to address it. This is because subtle differences in when and where interventions happen can lead to significantly different statistical patterns. We capture this dynamic by introducing a graphical model that explicitly accounts for both the observed world (where interventions are applied) and the counterfactual world (where selection occurs while interventions have not been applied). We characterize the Markov property of the model, and propose a provably sound algorithm to identify causal relations as well as selection mechanisms up to the equivalence class, from data with soft interventions and unknown targets. Through synthetic and real-world experiments, we demonstrate that our algorithm effectively identifies true causal relations despite the presence of selection bias.