Collaborative-Enhanced Prediction of Spending on Newly Downloaded Mobile Games under Consumption Uncertainty

With the surge in mobile gaming, accurately predicting user spending on newly downloaded games has become paramount for maximizing revenue. However, the inherently unpredictable nature of user behavior poses significant challenges in this endeavor. To address this, we propose a robust model training and evaluation framework aimed at standardizing spending data to mitigate label variance and extremes, ensuring stability in the modeling process. Within this framework, we introduce a collaborative-enhanced model designed to predict user game spending without relying on user IDs, thus ensuring user privacy and enabling seamless online training. Our model adopts a unique approach by separately representing user preferences and game features before merging them as input to the spending prediction module. Through rigorous experimentation, our approach demonstrates notable improvements over production models, achieving a remarkable \textbf{17.11}\% enhancement on offline data and an impressive \textbf{50.65}\% boost in an online A/B test. In summary, our contributions underscore the importance of stable model training frameworks and the efficacy of collaborative-enhanced models in predicting user spending behavior in mobile gaming.

Fusion of Active and Passive Measurements for Robust and Scalable Positioning

This paper addresses the challenge of achieving reliable and robust positioning of a mobile agent, such as a radio device carried by a person, in scenarios where direct line-of-sight (LOS) links are obstructed or unavailable. The human body is considered as an extended object that scatters, attenuates and blocks the radio signals. We propose a novel particle-based sum-product algorithm (SPA) that fuses active measurements between the agent and anchors with passive measurements from pairs of anchors reflected off the body. We first formulate radio signal models for both active and passive measurements. Then, a joint tracking algorithm that utilizes both active and passive measurements is developed for the extended object. The algorithm exploits the probabilistic data association (PDA) for multiple object-related measurements. The results demonstrate superior accuracy during and after the obstructed line-of-sight (OLOS) situation, outperforming conventional methods that solely rely on active measurements. The proposed joint estimation approach significantly enhances the localization robustness via radio sensing.

Confidence-Aware Multi-Field Model Calibration

Accurately predicting the probabilities of user feedback, such as clicks and conversions, is critical for ad ranking and bidding. However, there often exist unwanted mismatches between predicted probabilities and true likelihoods due to the shift of data distributions and intrinsic model biases. Calibration aims to address this issue by post-processing model predictions, and field-aware calibration can adjust model output on different feature field values to satisfy fine-grained advertising demands. Unfortunately, the observed samples corresponding to certain field values can be too limited to make confident calibrations, which may yield bias amplification and online disturbance. In this paper, we propose a confidence-aware multi-field calibration method, which adaptively adjusts the calibration intensity based on the confidence levels derived from sample statistics. It also utilizes multiple feature fields for joint model calibration with awareness of their importance to mitigate the data sparsity effect of a single field. Extensive offline and online experiments show the superiority of our method in boosting advertising performance and reducing prediction deviations.

User-Centric Evaluation of ChatGPT Capability of Generating R Program Code

This paper reports an evaluation of ChatGPT's capability of generating R programming language code from natural language input. A dataset specially designed for generating R program code was constructed with metadata to support scenario-based testing and evaluation of code generation capabilities in various usage scenarios of different levels of difficulty and different types of programs. The evaluation takes a multiple attempt process in which the tester tries to complete the code generation task through a number of attempts until a satisfactory solution is obtained or gives up after a fixed number of maximal attempts. In each attempt the tester formulates a natural language input to ChatGPT based on the previous results and the task to be completed. In addition to the metrics of average numbers of attempts and average amount of time taken to complete the tasks, the final generated solutions are then assessed on a number of quality attributes, including accuracy, completeness, conciseness, readability, well structuredness, logic clarity, depth of ex-planation, and coverage of parameters. Our experiments demonstrated that ChatGPT is in general highly capable of generating high quality R program code as well as textual explanations although it may fail on hard programming tasks. The experiment data also shows that human developers can hardly learn from experiences naturally to improve the skill of using ChatGPT to generate code.

CoCoFormer: A controllable feature-rich polyphonic music generation method

This paper explores the modeling method of polyphonic music sequence. Due to the great potential of Transformer models in music generation, controllable music generation is receiving more attention. In the task of polyphonic music, current controllable generation research focuses on controlling the generation of chords, but lacks precise adjustment for the controllable generation of choral music textures. This paper proposed Condition Choir Transformer (CoCoFormer) which controls the output of the model by controlling the chord and rhythm inputs at a fine-grained level. In this paper, the self-supervised method improves the loss function and performs joint training through conditional control input and unconditional input training. In order to alleviate the lack of diversity on generated samples caused by the teacher forcing training, this paper added an adversarial training method. CoCoFormer enhances model performance with explicit and implicit inputs to chords and rhythms. In this paper, the experiments proves that CoCoFormer has reached the current better level than current models. On the premise of specifying the polyphonic music texture, the same melody can also be generated in a variety of ways.

Robust Long-Tailed Learning via Label-Aware Bounded CVaR

Data in the real-world classification problems are always imbalanced or long-tailed, wherein the majority classes have the most of the samples that dominate the model training. In such setting, the naive model tends to have poor performance on the minority classes. Previously, a variety of loss modifications have been proposed to address the long-tailed leaning problem, while these methods either treat the samples in the same class indiscriminatingly or lack a theoretical guarantee. In this paper, we propose two novel approaches based on CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) to improve the performance of long-tailed learning with a solid theoretical ground. Specifically, we firstly introduce a Label-Aware Bounded CVaR (LAB-CVaR) loss to overcome the pessimistic result of the original CVaR, and further design the optimal weight bounds for LAB-CVaR theoretically. Based on LAB-CVaR, we additionally propose a LAB-CVaR with logit adjustment (LAB-CVaR-logit) loss to stabilize the optimization process, where we also offer the theoretical support. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with long-tailed label distributions verify the superiority of our proposed methods.

Choir Transformer: Generating Polyphonic Music with Relative Attention on Transformer

Polyphonic music generation is still a challenge direction due to its correct between generating melody and harmony. Most of the previous studies used RNN-based models. However, the RNN-based models are hard to establish the relationship between long-distance notes. In this paper, we propose a polyphonic music generation neural network named Choir Transformer[ https://github.com/Zjy0401/choir-transformer], with relative positional attention to better model the structure of music. We also proposed a music representation suitable for polyphonic music generation. The performance of Choir Transformer surpasses the previous state-of-the-art accuracy of 4.06%. We also measures the harmony metrics of polyphonic music. Experiments show that the harmony metrics are close to the music of Bach. In practical application, the generated melody and rhythm can be adjusted according to the specified input, with different styles of music like folk music or pop music and so on.

A Scenario-Based Functional Testing Approach to Improving DNN Performance

This paper proposes a scenario-based functional testing approach for enhancing the performance of machine learning (ML) applications. The proposed method is an iterative process that starts with testing the ML model on various scenarios to identify areas of weakness. It follows by a further testing on the suspected weak scenarios and statistically evaluate the model's performance on the scenarios to confirm the diagnosis. Once the diagnosis of weak scenarios is confirmed by test results, the treatment of the model is performed by retraining the model using a transfer learning technique with the original model as the base and applying a set of training data specifically targeting the treated scenarios plus a subset of training data selected at random from the original train dataset to prevent the so-call catastrophic forgetting effect. Finally, after the treatment, the model is assessed and evaluated again by testing on the treated scenarios as well as other scenarios to check if the treatment is effective and no side effect caused. The paper reports a case study with a real ML deep neural network (DNN) model, which is the perception system of an autonomous racing car. It is demonstrated that the method is effective in the sense that DNN model's performance can be improved. It provides an efficient method of enhancing ML model's performance with much less human and compute resource than retrain from scratch.

Differential Privacy May Have a Potential Optimization Effect on Some Swarm Intelligence Algorithms besides Privacy-preserving

Differential privacy (DP), as a promising privacy-preserving model, has attracted great interest from researchers in recent years. Currently, the study on combination of machine learning and DP is vibrant. In contrast, another widely used artificial intelligence technique, the swarm intelligence (SI) algorithm, has received little attention in the context of DP even though it also triggers privacy concerns. For this reason, this paper attempts to combine DP and SI for the first time, and proposes a general differentially private swarm intelligence algorithm framework (DPSIAF). Based on the exponential mechanism, this framework can easily develop existing SI algorithms into the private versions. As examples, we apply the proposed DPSIAF to four popular SI algorithms, and corresponding analyses demonstrate its effectiveness. More interestingly, the experimental results show that, for our private algorithms, their performance is not strictly affected by the privacy budget, and one of the private algorithms even owns better performance than its non-private version in some cases. These findings are different from the conventional cognition, which indicates the uniqueness of SI with DP. Our study may provide a new perspective on DP, and promote the synergy between metaheuristic optimization community and privacy computing community.

Contrastive Multi-view Framework for Customer Lifetime Value Prediction

Accurate customer lifetime value (LTV) prediction can help service providers optimize their marketing policies in customer-centric applications. However, the heavy sparsity of consumption events and the interference of data variance and noise obstruct LTV estimation. Many existing LTV prediction methods directly train a single-view LTV predictor on consumption samples, which may yield inaccurate and even biased knowledge extraction. In this paper, we propose a contrastive multi-view framework for LTV prediction, which is a plug-and-play solution compatible with various backbone models. It synthesizes multiple heterogeneous LTV regressors with complementary knowledge to improve model robustness and captures sample relatedness via contrastive learning to mitigate the dependency on data abundance. Concretely, we use a decomposed scheme that converts the LTV prediction problem into a combination of estimating consumption probability and payment amount. To alleviate the impact of noisy data on model learning, we propose a multi-view framework that jointly optimizes multiple types of regressors with diverse characteristics and advantages to encode and fuse comprehensive knowledge. To fully exploit the potential of limited training samples, we propose a hybrid contrastive learning method to help capture the relatedness between samples in both classification and regression tasks. We conduct extensive experiments on a real-world game LTV prediction dataset and the results validate the effectiveness of our method. We have deployed our solution online in Huawei's mobile game center and achieved 32.26% of total payment amount gains.