Temporal Sampling Frequency Matters: A Capacity-Aware Study of End-to-End Driving Trajectory Prediction

End to end (E2E) autonomous driving trajectory prediction is often trained with camera frames sampled at the highest available temporal frequency, assuming that denser sampling improves performance. We question this assumption by treating temporal sampling frequency as an explicit training set design variable. Starting from high frequency E2E driving datasets, we construct frequency sweep training sets by temporally subsampling camera frames along each trajectory. For each model dataset pair, we train and evaluate the same model under a fixed protocol, so the frequency response reflects how prediction performance changes with sampling frequency. We analyze this response from a capacity aware perspective. Sparse sampling may miss driving relevant cues, while dense sampling may add redundant visual content and off manifold noise. For finite capacity models, this can create a driving irrelevant capacity burden. We evaluate three smaller E2E models and a larger VLA style AutoVLA model on Waymo, nuScenes, and PAVE. Results show model and dataset dependent frequency responses. Smaller E2E models often show non monotonic or near plateau trends and achieve their best 3 second ADE at lower or intermediate frequencies. In contrast, AutoVLA achieves its best 3 second ADE and FDE at the highest evaluated frequency on all three datasets. Iteration matched controls suggest that the advantage of lower or intermediate frequencies for smaller models is not explained only by unequal training update counts. These findings show that temporal sampling frequency should be reported and tuned, rather than fixed to the highest available value.

SleepWalk: A Three-Tier Benchmark for Stress-Testing Instruction-Guided Vision-Language Navigation

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have advanced rapidly in multimodal perception and language understanding, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably ground language into spatially coherent, plausibly executable actions in 3D digital environments. We introduce SleepWalk, a benchmark for evaluating instruction-grounded trajectory prediction in single-scene 3D worlds generated from textual scene descriptions and filtered for navigability. Unlike prior navigation benchmarks centered on long-range exploration across rooms, SleepWalk targets localized, interaction-centric embodied reasoning: given rendered visual observations and a natural-language instruction, a model must predict a trajectory that respects scene geometry, avoids collisions, and terminates at an action-compatible location. The benchmark covers diverse indoor and outdoor environments and organizes tasks into three tiers of spatial and temporal difficulty, enabling fine-grained analysis of grounding under increasing compositional complexity. Using a standardized pointwise judge-based evaluation protocol, we evaluate three frontier VLMs on 2,472 curated 3D environments with nine instructions per scene. Results reveal systematic failures in grounded spatial reasoning, especially under occlusion, interaction constraints, and multi-step instructions: performance drops as the difficulty level of the tasks increase. In general, current VLMs can somewhat produce trajectories that are simultaneously spatially coherent, plausibly executable, and aligned with intended actions. By exposing failures in a controlled yet scalable setting, SleepWalk provides a critical benchmark for advancing grounded multimodal reasoning, embodied planning, vision-language navigation, and action-capable agents in 3D environments.

Hierarchical Causal Abduction: A Foundation Framework for Explainable Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is widely used to operate safety-critical infrastructure by predicting future trajectories and optimizing control actions. However, nonlinear dynamics, hard safety constraints, and numerical optimization often render individual control moves opaque to human operators, undermining trust and hindering deployment. This paper presents Hierarchical Causal Abduction (HCA), which combines (i) physics-informed reasoning via domain knowledge graphs, (ii) optimization evidence from Karush--Kuhn--Tucker (KKT) multipliers, and (iii) temporal causal discovery via the PCMCI algorithm to generate faithful, human-interpretable explanations for control actions computed by nonlinear MPC. Across three diverse control applications (greenhouse climate, building HVAC, chemical process engineering) with expert validation, HCA improves explanation accuracy by 53\% over LIME (0.478 vs. 0.311) using a single set of cross-domain parameters without per-domain tuning; domain-specific KKT-threshold calibration over 2--3 days further increases accuracy to 0.88. Ablation studies confirm that each evidence source is essential, with 32--37\% accuracy degradation when any component is removed, and HCA's ranking-and-validation methodology generalizes beyond MPC to other prediction-based decision systems, including learning-based control and trajectory planning.

Clin-JEPA: A Multi-Phase Co-Training Framework for Joint-Embedding Predictive Pretraining on EHR Patient Trajectories

We present Clin-JEPA, a multi-phase co-training framework for joint-embedding predictive (JEPA) pretraining on EHR patient trajectories. JEPA architectures have enabled latent-space planning in robotics and high-quality representation learning in vision, but extending the paradigm to EHR data -- to obtain a single backbone that simultaneously forecasts patient trajectories and serves diverse downstream risk-prediction tasks without per-task fine-tuning -- remains an open challenge. Existing JEPA frameworks either discard the predictor after pretraining (I-JEPA, V-JEPA) or train it on a frozen pretrained encoder (V-JEPA 2-AC), leaving the encoder unaware of the rollout signal that the retained predictor must use at inference; co-training the encoder and predictor under a shared JEPA prediction objective would supply this grounding, but naïve co-training is unstable, with representation collapse and online/target drift causing autoregressive rollout to diverge. Clin-JEPA's five-phase pretraining curriculum -- predictor warmup, joint refinement, EMA target alignment, hard sync, and predictor finalization -- addresses each failure mode by phase, stably co-training a Qwen3-8B-based encoder and a 92M-parameter latent trajectory predictor. On MIMIC-IV ICU data, three independent evaluations support the framework: (1) latent $\ell_1$ rollout drift uniquely converges ($-$15.7%) over 48-hour horizons while baselines and ablations diverge (+3% to +4951%); (2) the encoder learns a clinically discriminative latent geometry (deteriorating-patient cohorts displace 4.83$\times$ further than stable patients in latent space, vs $\leq$2.62$\times$ for baseline encoders); (3) a single backbone outperforms strong tabular and sequence baselines on multi-task downstream evaluation. Clin-JEPA achieves mean AUROC 0.851 on ICareFM EEP and 0.883 on 8 binary risk tasks (+0.038 and +0.041 vs baseline average).

CausalGS: Learning Physical Causality of 3D Dynamic Scenes with Gaussian Representations

Learning a physical model from video data that can comprehend physical laws and predict the future trajectories of objects is a formidable challenge in artificial intelligence. Prior approaches either leverage various Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) as soft constraints in the form of PINN losses, or integrate physics simulators into neural networks; however, they often rely on strong priors or high-quality geometry reconstruction. In this paper, we propose CausalGS, a framework that learns the causal dynamics of complex dynamic 3D scenes solely from multi-view videos, while dispensing with the reliance on explicit priors. At its core is an inverse physics inference module that decouples the complex dynamics problem from the video into the joint inference of two factors: the initial velocity field representing the scene's kinematics, and the intrinsic material properties governing its dynamics. This inferred physical information is then utilized within a differentiable physics simulator to guide the learning process in a physics-regularized manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalGS surpasses the state-of-the-art on the highly challenging task of long-term future frame extrapolation, while also exhibiting advanced performance in novel view interpolation. Crucially, our work shows that, without any human annotation, the model is able to learn the complex interactions between multiple physical properties and understand the causal relationships driving the scene's dynamic evolution, solely from visual observations.

From Single-Step Edit Response to Multi-Step Molecular Optimization

Conditional molecular optimization aims to edit a molecule to realize a specified property shift. In practice, structurally similar molecule data is scarce, while decisions are inherently action-level: at each step, the system must select one local structural edit from a candidate set that is strictly filtered by chemical feasibility rules. This level mismatch between supervision and decision makes oracle-in-the-loop search unstable in molecular optimization. Regressing on property differences between molecule pairs improves data efficiency but relies on oracle-in-the-loop search, entangling transformation effects with global context and providing limited guidance for selecting the next feasible edit, often resorting to oracle-in-the-loop search. For this reason, we propose a response-oriented discrete edit optimization approach comprising two tightly coupled components: a single-step molecular edit response predictor (SMER) and a multi-step planner that composes local predictions into optimization trajectories via guided tree search (SMER-Opt). The approach learns a directional evaluation model over edit actions to support constraint-aware planning. It mines weakly related molecule pairs and decomposes their structural differences into minimal edit units, turning endpoint property annotations into process-level supervision and yielding reusable, transferable action primitives. A directional edit evaluator then scores feasible candidate edits by their likelihood of moving the molecule toward the desired property change, substantially reducing dependence on external evaluator queries at decision time. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/SMER.

Heteroscedastic Diffusion for Multi-Agent Trajectory Modeling

Multi-agent trajectory modeling traditionally focuses on forecasting, often neglecting more general tasks like trajectory completion, which is essential for real-world applications such as correcting tracking data. Existing methods also generally predict agents' states without offering any state-wise measure of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Moreover, popular multi-modal sampling methods lack error probability estimates for each generated scene under the same prior observations, which makes it difficult to rank the predictions at inference time. We introduce U2Diffine, a unified diffusion model built to perform trajectory completion while simultaneously offering state-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates. This is achieved by augmenting the standard denoising loss with the negative log-likelihood of the predicted noise, and then propagating the latent space uncertainty to the real state space using a first-order Taylor approximation. We also propose U2Diff, a faster baseline that avoids gradient computation during sampling. This approach significantly increases inference speed, making it as efficient as a standard generative-only diffusion model. For post-processing, we integrate a Rank Neural Network (RankNN) that enables error probability estimation for each generated mode, demonstrating strong correlation with ground truth errors. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in both trajectory completion and forecasting across four challenging sports datasets (NBA, Basketball-U, Football-U, Soccer-U), underscoring the effectiveness of our uncertainty and error probability estimation.

PixelFlowCast: Latent-Free Precipitation Nowcasting via Pixel Mean Flows

Precipitation nowcasting aims to forecast short-term radar echo sequences for extreme weather warning, where both prediction fidelity and inference efficiency are critical for real-world deployment. However, diffusion-based models, despite their strong generative capability, suffer from slow inference due to multi-step sampling trajectories, limiting their practical usability. Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) improves efficiency via straightened trajectories, but relies on latent space compression, which inevitably discards high-frequency physical details and degrades fine-grained prediction quality. To address these limitations, we propose PixelFlowCast, a two-stage probabilistic forecasting framework that achieves both high-efficiency and high-fidelity prediction without latent compression. Specifically, in the first stage, a deterministic model first produces coarse forecasts to capture global evolution trends. In the subsequent stage, the proposed KANCondNet extracts deep spatiotemporal evolution features to provide accurate conditional guidance. Based on this, a latent-free, few-step Pixel Mean Flows (PMF) predictor employs an $x$-prediction mechanism to generate high-quality predictions, effectively preserving fine-grained structures while maintaining fast inference. Experiments on the publicly available SEVIR dataset demonstrate that PixelFlowCast outperforms existing mainstream methods in both prediction accuracy and inference efficiency, particularly for long sequence forecasting, highlighting its strong potential for real-world operational deployment.

Unlocking air traffic flow prediction through microscopic aircraft-state modeling

Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series, despite traffic dynamics being governed by aircraft states and interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling framework that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense consistently improves predictive accuracy over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that instantaneous airspace situations provide an effective alternative to conventional time-series-based traffic forecasting paradigms.

Progressive Photorealistic Simplification

Existing image simplification techniques often rely on Non-Photorealistic Rendering (NPR), transforming photographs into stylized sketches, cartoons, or paintings. While effective at reducing visual complexity, such approaches typically sacrifice photographic realism. In this work, we explore a complementary direction: simplifying images while preserving their photorealistic appearance. We introduce progressive semantic image simplification, a framework that iteratively reduces scene complexity by removing and inpainting elements in a controlled manner. At each step, the resulting image remains a plausible natural photograph. Our method combines semantic understanding with generative editing, leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to identify and prioritize elements for removal, and a learned verifier to ensure photorealism and coherence throughout the process. This is implemented via an iterative Select-Remove-Verify pipeline that produces high-quality simplification trajectories. To improve efficiency, we further distill this process into an image-to-video generation model that directly predicts coherent simplification sequences from a single input image. Beyond generating cleaner and more focused compositions, our approach enables applications such as content-aware decluttering, semantic layer decomposition, and interactive editing. More broadly, our work suggests that simplification through structured content removal can serve as a practical mechanism for guiding visual interpretation within the photorealistic domain, complementing traditional abstraction methods.