Trajectory prediction is the process of forecasting the future path of moving objects based on historical trajectory data.
Radio transmissions in millimeter wave (mmWave) bands have gained significant interest for applications demanding precise device localization and trajectory estimation. This paper explores novel neural network (NN) architectures suitable for trajectory estimation and path determination in a mmWave multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) outdoor system based on localization data from beamformed fingerprint (BFF). The NN architecture captures sequences of BFF signals from different users, and through the application of learning mechanisms, subsequently estimate their trajectories. In turn, this information is employed to find the shortest path to the target, thereby enabling more efficient navigation. Specifically, we propose a two-stage procedure for trajectory estimation and optimal path finding. In the first stage, a transformer network (TN) based on attention mechanisms is developed to predict trajectories of wireless devices using BFF sequences captured in a mmWave MIMO outdoor system. In the second stage, a novel algorithm based on Informed Rapidly-exploring Random Trees (iRRT*) is employed to determine the optimal path to target locations using trajectory estimates derived in the first stage. The effectiveness of the proposed schemes is validated through numerical experiments, using a comprehensive dataset of radio measurements, generated using ray tracing simulations to model outdoor propagation at 28 GHz. We show that our proposed TN-based trajectory estimator outperforms other methods from the recent literature and can successfully generalize to new trajectories outside the training set. Furthermore, our proposed iRRT* algorithm is able to consistently provide the shortest path to the target.
Feed-forward multi-frame 3D reconstruction models often degrade on videos with object motion. Global-reference becomes ambiguous under multiple motions, while the local pointmap relies heavily on estimated relative poses and can drift, causing cross-frame misalignment and duplicated structures. We propose TrajVG, a reconstruction framework that makes cross-frame 3D correspondence an explicit prediction by estimating camera-coordinate 3D trajectories. We couple sparse trajectories, per-frame local point maps, and relative camera poses with geometric consistency objectives: (i) bidirectional trajectory-pointmap consistency with controlled gradient flow, and (ii) a pose consistency objective driven by static track anchors that suppresses gradients from dynamic regions. To scale training to in-the-wild videos where 3D trajectory labels are scarce, we reformulate the same coupling constraints into self-supervised objectives using only pseudo 2D tracks, enabling unified training with mixed supervision. Extensive experiments across 3D tracking, pose estimation, pointmap reconstruction, and video depth show that TrajVG surpasses the current feedforward performance baseline.
Understanding the limitations of gradient methods, and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in particular, is a central challenge in learning theory. To that end, a commonly used tool is the Statistical Queries (SQ) framework, which studies performance limits of algorithms based on noisy interaction with the data. However, it is known that the formal connection between the SQ framework and SGD is tenuous: Existing results typically rely on adversarial or specially-structured gradient noise that does not reflect the noise in standard SGD, and (as we point out here) can sometimes lead to incorrect predictions. Moreover, many analyses of SGD for challenging problems rely on non-trivial algorithmic modifications, such as restricting the SGD trajectory to the sphere or using very small learning rates. To address these shortcomings, we develop a new, non-SQ framework to study the limitations of standard vanilla SGD, for single-index and multi-index models (namely, when the target function depends on a low-dimensional projection of the inputs). Our results apply to a broad class of settings and architectures, including (potentially deep) neural networks.
Monocular 3D pose estimation is fundamentally ill-posed due to depth ambiguity and occlusions, thereby motivating probabilistic methods that generate multiple plausible 3D pose hypotheses. In particular, diffusion-based models have recently demonstrated strong performance, but their iterative denoising process typically requires many timesteps for each prediction, making inference computationally expensive. In contrast, we leverage Flow Matching (FM) to learn a velocity field defined by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE), enabling efficient generation of 3D pose samples with only a few integration steps. We propose a novel generative pose estimation framework, FMPose3D, that formulates 3D pose estimation as a conditional distribution transport problem. It continuously transports samples from a standard Gaussian prior to the distribution of plausible 3D poses conditioned only on 2D inputs. Although ODE trajectories are deterministic, FMPose3D naturally generates various pose hypotheses by sampling different noise seeds. To obtain a single accurate prediction from those hypotheses, we further introduce a Reprojection-based Posterior Expectation Aggregation (RPEA) module, which approximates the Bayesian posterior expectation over 3D hypotheses. FMPose3D surpasses existing methods on the widely used human pose estimation benchmarks Human3.6M and MPI-INF-3DHP, and further achieves state-of-the-art performance on the 3D animal pose datasets Animal3D and CtrlAni3D, demonstrating strong performance across both 3D pose domains. The code is available at https://github.com/AdaptiveMotorControlLab/FMPose3D.
Sequential prediction from streaming observations is a fundamental problem in stochastic dynamical systems, where inherent uncertainty often leads to multiple plausible futures. While diffusion and flow-matching models are capable of modeling complex, multi-modal trajectories, their deployment in real-time streaming environments typically relies on repeated sampling from a non-informative initial distribution, incurring substantial inference latency and potential system backlogs. In this work, we introduce Sequential Flow Matching, a principled framework grounded in Bayesian filtering. By treating streaming inference as learning a probability flow that transports the predictive distribution from one time step to the next, our approach naturally aligns with the recursive structure of Bayesian belief updates. We provide theoretical justification that initializing generation from the previous posterior offers a principled warm start that can accelerate sampling compared to naïve re-sampling. Across a wide range of forecasting, decision-making and state estimation tasks, our method achieves performance competitive with full-step diffusion while requiring only one or very few sampling steps, therefore with faster sampling. It suggests that framing sequential inference via Bayesian filtering provides a new and principled perspective towards efficient real-time deployment of flow-based models.
Training reinforcement learning (RL) systems in real-world environments remains challenging due to noisy supervision and poor out-of-domain (OOD) generalization, especially in LLM post-training. Recent distributional RL methods improve robustness by modeling values with multiple quantile points, but they still learn each quantile independently as a scalar. This results in rough-grained value representations that lack fine-grained conditioning on state information, struggling under complex and OOD conditions. We propose DFPO (Distributional Value Flow Policy Optimization with Conditional Risk and Consistency Control), a robust distributional RL framework that models values as continuous flows across time steps. By scaling value modeling through learning of a value flow field instead of isolated quantile predictions, DFPO captures richer state information for more accurate advantage estimation. To stabilize training under noisy feedback, DFPO further integrates conditional risk control and consistency constraints along value flow trajectories. Experiments on dialogue, math reasoning, and scientific tasks show that DFPO outperforms PPO, FlowRL, and other robust baselines under noisy supervision, achieving improved training stability and generalization.
Leveraging long-term user behavioral patterns is a key trajectory for enhancing the accuracy of modern recommender systems. While generative recommender systems have emerged as a transformative paradigm, they face hurdles in effectively modeling extensive historical sequences. To address this challenge, we propose GLASS, a novel framework that integrates long-term user interests into the generative process via SID-Tier and Semantic Search. We first introduce SID-Tier, a module that maps long-term interactions into a unified interest vector to enhance the prediction of the initial SID token. Unlike traditional retrieval models that struggle with massive item spaces, SID-Tier leverages the compact nature of the semantic codebook to incorporate cross features between the user's long-term history and candidate semantic codes. Furthermore, we present semantic hard search, which utilizes generated coarse-grained semantic ID as dynamic keys to extract relevant historical behaviors, which are then fused via an adaptive gated fusion module to recalibrate the trajectory of subsequent fine-grained tokens. To address the inherent data sparsity in semantic hard search, we propose two strategies: semantic neighbor augmentation and codebook resizing. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real-world datasets, TAOBAO-MM and KuaiRec, demonstrate that GLASS outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving significant gains in recommendation quality. Our codes are made publicly available to facilitate further research in generative recommendation.
Trajectory prediction and planning are fundamental yet disconnected components in autonomous driving. Prediction models forecast surrounding agent motion under unknown intentions, producing multimodal distributions, while planning assumes known ego objectives and generates deterministic trajectories. This mismatch creates a critical bottleneck: prediction lacks supervision for agent intentions, while planning requires this information. Existing prediction models, despite strong benchmarking performance, often remain disconnected from planning constraints such as collision avoidance and dynamic feasibility. We introduce Plan TRansformer (PTR), a unified Gaussian Mixture Transformer framework integrating goal-conditioned prediction, dynamic feasibility, interaction awareness, and lane-level topology reasoning. A teacher-student training strategy progressively masks surrounding agent commands during training to align with inference conditions where agent intentions are unavailable. PTR achieves 4.3%/3.5% improvement in marginal/joint mAP compared to the baseline Motion Transformer (MTR) and 15.5% planning error reduction at 5s horizon compared to GameFormer. The architecture-agnostic design enables application to diverse Transformer-based prediction models. Project Website: https://github.com/SelzerConst/PlanTRansformer
We study the effect of group symmetrization of pre-trained models on conformal prediction (CP), a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, CP uncertainty regions can grow significantly in long horizon missions, rendering the statistical guarantees uninformative. To that end, we propose infusing CP with geometric information via group-averaging of the pretrained predictor to distribute the non-conformity mass across the orbits. Each sample now is treated as a representative of an orbit, thus uncertainty can be mitigated by other samples entangled to it via the orbit inducing elements of the symmetry group. Our approach provably yields contracted non-conformity scores in increasing convex order, implying improved exponential-tail bounds and sharper conformal prediction sets in expectation, especially at high confidence levels. We then propose an experimental design to test these theoretical claims in pedestrian trajectory prediction.
Large foundation models have shown strong open-world generalization to complex problems in vision and language, but similar levels of generalization have yet to be achieved in robotics. One fundamental challenge is that the models exhibit limited zero-shot capability, which hampers their ability to generalize effectively to unseen scenarios. In this work, we propose GeneralVLA (Generalizable Vision-Language-Action Models with Knowledge-Guided Trajectory Planning), a hierarchical vision-language-action (VLA) model that can be more effective in utilizing the generalization of foundation models, enabling zero-shot manipulation and automatically generating data for robotics. In particular, we study a class of hierarchical VLA model where the high-level ASM (Affordance Segmentation Module) is finetuned to perceive image keypoint affordances of the scene; the mid-level 3DAgent carries out task understanding, skill knowledge, and trajectory planning to produce a 3D path indicating the desired robot end-effector trajectory. The intermediate 3D path prediction is then served as guidance to the low-level, 3D-aware control policy capable of precise manipulation. Compared to alternative approaches, our method requires no real-world robotic data collection or human demonstration, making it much more scalable to diverse tasks and viewpoints. Empirically, GeneralVLA successfully generates trajectories for 14 tasks, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods such as VoxPoser. The generated demonstrations can train more robust behavior cloning policies than training with human demonstrations or from data generated by VoxPoser, Scaling-up, and Code-As-Policies. We believe GeneralVLA can be the scalable method for both generating data for robotics and solving novel tasks in a zero-shot setting. Code: https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/GeneralVLA. Website: https://aigeeksgroup.github.io/GeneralVLA.