Abstract:This paper aims to study the prediction of the bank stability index based on the Time Series Transformer model. The bank stability index is an important indicator to measure the health status and risk resistance of financial institutions. Traditional prediction methods are difficult to adapt to complex market changes because they rely on single-dimensional macroeconomic data. This paper proposes a prediction framework based on the Time Series Transformer, which uses the self-attention mechanism of the model to capture the complex temporal dependencies and nonlinear relationships in financial data. Through experiments, we compare the model with LSTM, GRU, CNN, TCN and RNN-Transformer models. The experimental results show that the Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in both mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) evaluation indicators, showing strong prediction ability. This shows that the Time Series Transformer model can better handle multidimensional time series data in bank stability prediction, providing new technical approaches and solutions for financial risk management.
Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) represent a promising, but controversial, tool in aiding scientific peer review. This study evaluates the usefulness of LLMs in a conference setting as a tool for vetting paper submissions against submission standards. We conduct an experiment at the 2024 Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) conference, where 234 papers were voluntarily submitted to an "LLM-based Checklist Assistant." This assistant validates whether papers adhere to the author checklist used by NeurIPS, which includes questions to ensure compliance with research and manuscript preparation standards. Evaluation of the assistant by NeurIPS paper authors suggests that the LLM-based assistant was generally helpful in verifying checklist completion. In post-usage surveys, over 70% of authors found the assistant useful, and 70% indicate that they would revise their papers or checklist responses based on its feedback. While causal attribution to the assistant is not definitive, qualitative evidence suggests that the LLM contributed to improving some submissions. Survey responses and analysis of re-submissions indicate that authors made substantive revisions to their submissions in response to specific feedback from the LLM. The experiment also highlights common issues with LLMs: inaccuracy (20/52) and excessive strictness (14/52) were the most frequent issues flagged by authors. We also conduct experiments to understand potential gaming of the system, which reveal that the assistant could be manipulated to enhance scores through fabricated justifications, highlighting potential vulnerabilities of automated review tools.
Abstract:With the global economic integration and the high interconnection of financial markets, financial institutions are facing unprecedented challenges, especially liquidity risk. This paper proposes a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) prediction model based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU) network to help financial institutions manage their liquidity risk more effectively. By utilizing the GRU network in deep learning technology, the model can automatically learn complex patterns from historical data and accurately predict LCR for a period of time in the future. The experimental results show that compared with traditional methods, the GRU model proposed in this study shows significant advantages in mean absolute error (MAE), proving its higher accuracy and robustness. This not only provides financial institutions with a more reliable liquidity risk management tool but also provides support for regulators to formulate more scientific and reasonable policies, which helps to improve the stability of the entire financial system.
Abstract:The projector plays a crucial role in multi-modal language models (MLLMs). The number of visual tokens it outputs affects the efficiency of the MLLM, while the quality of the visual tokens influences the visual understanding capabilities of the MLLM. Current explorations on the projector focus on reducing the number of visual tokens to improve efficiency, often overlooking the inherent spatial discrepancy between the serialized 2-dimensional visual token sequences and natural language token sequences. A Spatial-Aware Efficient Projector (SAEP) is proposed to address this issue. In detail, our SAEP method employs an modified separable depthwise convolution module on multi-layer visual features to enhance the spatial information of visual tokens. As a result, our SAEP method can not only largely reduce the number of visual tokens by 75\%, but also significantly improve the multimodal spatial understanding capability of MLLMs. Moreover, compared to existing projectors, our SAEP gets best performances on massive multimodal evaluation benchmarks, which denotes its effectiveness on bridging the modality gap.
Abstract:This paper presents a novel approach to credit risk prediction by employing Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNNs) to assess the creditworthiness of borrowers. Leveraging the power of big data and artificial intelligence, the proposed method addresses the challenges faced by traditional credit risk assessment models, particularly in handling imbalanced datasets and extracting meaningful features from complex relationships. The paper begins by transforming raw borrower data into graph-structured data, where borrowers and their relationships are represented as nodes and edges, respectively. A classic subgraph convolutional model is then applied to extract local features, followed by the introduction of a hybrid GCNN model that integrates both local and global convolutional operators to capture a comprehensive representation of node features. The hybrid model incorporates an attention mechanism to adaptively select features, mitigating issues of over-smoothing and insufficient feature consideration. The study demonstrates the potential of GCNNs in improving the accuracy of credit risk prediction, offering a robust solution for financial institutions seeking to enhance their lending decision-making processes.
Abstract:Capturing the inter-dependencies among multiple types of clinically-critical events is critical not only to accurate future event prediction, but also to better treatment planning. In this work, we propose a deep latent state-space generative model to capture the interactions among different types of correlated clinical events (e.g., kidney failure, mortality) by explicitly modeling the temporal dynamics of patients' latent states. Based on these learned patient states, we further develop a new general discrete-time formulation of the hazard rate function to estimate the survival distribution of patients with significantly improved accuracy. Extensive evaluations over real EMR data show that our proposed model compares favorably to various state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our method also uncovers meaningful insights about the latent correlations among mortality and different types of organ failures.
Abstract:Link prediction is a fundamental task in graph learning, inherently shaped by the topology of the graph. While traditional heuristics are grounded in graph topology, they encounter challenges in generalizing across diverse graphs. Recent research efforts have aimed to leverage the potential of heuristics, yet a unified formulation accommodating both local and global heuristics remains undiscovered. Drawing insights from the fact that both local and global heuristics can be represented by adjacency matrix multiplications, we propose a unified matrix formulation to accommodate and generalize various heuristics. We further propose the Heuristic Learning Graph Neural Network (HL-GNN) to efficiently implement the formulation. HL-GNN adopts intra-layer propagation and inter-layer connections, allowing it to reach a depth of around 20 layers with lower time complexity than GCN. HL-GNN is proven to be more expressive than heuristics and conventional GNNs, and it can adaptively trade-off between node features and topological information. Extensive experiments on the Planetoid, Amazon, and OGB datasets underscore the effectiveness and efficiency of HL-GNN. It outperforms existing methods by a large margin in prediction performance. Additionally, HL-GNN is several orders of magnitude faster than heuristic-inspired methods while requiring only a few trainable parameters. The case study further demonstrates that the generalized heuristics and learned weights are highly interpretable.
Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate exceptional instruct-following ability to complete various downstream tasks. Although this impressive ability makes LLMs flexible task solvers, their performance in solving tasks also heavily relies on instructions. In this paper, we reveal that LLMs are over-sensitive to lexical variations in task instructions, even when the variations are imperceptible to humans. By providing models with neighborhood instructions, which are closely situated in the latent representation space and differ by only one semantically similar word, the performance on downstream tasks can be vastly different. Following this property, we propose a black-box Combinatorial Optimization framework for Prompt Lexical Enhancement (COPLE). COPLE performs iterative lexical optimization according to the feedback from a batch of proxy tasks, using a search strategy related to word influence. Experiments show that even widely-used human-crafted prompts for current benchmarks suffer from the lexical sensitivity of models, and COPLE recovers the declined model ability in both instruct-following and solving downstream tasks.
Abstract:Organising an AI challenge does not end with the final event. The long-lasting impact also needs to be organised. This chapter covers the various activities after the challenge is formally finished. The target audience of different post-challenge activities is identified. The various outputs of the challenge are listed with the means to collect them. The main part of the chapter is a template for a typical post-challenge paper, including possible graphs as well as advice on how to turn the challenge into a long-lasting benchmark.
Abstract:Volumetric video is a technology that digitally records dynamic events such as artistic performances, sporting events, and remote conversations. When acquired, such volumography can be viewed from any viewpoint and timestamp on flat screens, 3D displays, or VR headsets, enabling immersive viewing experiences and more flexible content creation in a variety of applications such as sports broadcasting, video conferencing, gaming, and movie productions. With the recent advances and fast-growing interest in neural scene representations for volumetric video, there is an urgent need for a unified open-source library to streamline the process of volumetric video capturing, reconstruction, and rendering for both researchers and non-professional users to develop various algorithms and applications of this emerging technology. In this paper, we present EasyVolcap, a Python & Pytorch library for accelerating neural volumetric video research with the goal of unifying the process of multi-view data processing, 4D scene reconstruction, and efficient dynamic volumetric video rendering. Our source code is available at https://github.com/zju3dv/EasyVolcap.