Graph Neural Network with Two Uplift Estimators for Label-Scarcity Individual Uplift Modeling

Uplift modeling aims to measure the incremental effect, which we call uplift, of a strategy or action on the users from randomized experiments or observational data. Most existing uplift methods only use individual data, which are usually not informative enough to capture the unobserved and complex hidden factors regarding the uplift. Furthermore, uplift modeling scenario usually has scarce labeled data, especially for the treatment group, which also poses a great challenge for model training. Considering that the neighbors' features and the social relationships are very informative to characterize a user's uplift, we propose a graph neural network-based framework with two uplift estimators, called GNUM, to learn from the social graph for uplift estimation. Specifically, we design the first estimator based on a class-transformed target. The estimator is general for all types of outcomes, and is able to comprehensively model the treatment and control group data together to approach the uplift. When the outcome is discrete, we further design the other uplift estimator based on our defined partial labels, which is able to utilize more labeled data from both the treatment and control groups, to further alleviate the label scarcity problem. Comprehensive experiments on a public dataset and two industrial datasets show a superior performance of our proposed framework over state-of-the-art methods under various evaluation metrics. The proposed algorithms have been deployed online to serve real-world uplift estimation scenarios.

Financial Default Prediction via Motif-preserving Graph Neural Network with Curriculum Learning

User financial default prediction plays a critical role in credit risk forecasting and management. It aims at predicting the probability that the user will fail to make the repayments in the future. Previous methods mainly extract a set of user individual features regarding his own profiles and behaviors and build a binary-classification model to make default predictions. However, these methods cannot get satisfied results, especially for users with limited information. Although recent efforts suggest that default prediction can be improved by social relations, they fail to capture the higher-order topology structure at the level of small subgraph patterns. In this paper, we fill in this gap by proposing a motif-preserving Graph Neural Network with curriculum learning (MotifGNN) to jointly learn the lower-order structures from the original graph and higherorder structures from multi-view motif-based graphs for financial default prediction. Specifically, to solve the problem of weak connectivity in motif-based graphs, we design the motif-based gating mechanism. It utilizes the information learned from the original graph with good connectivity to strengthen the learning of the higher-order structure. And considering that the motif patterns of different samples are highly unbalanced, we propose a curriculum learning mechanism on the whole learning process to more focus on the samples with uncommon motif distributions. Extensive experiments on one public dataset and two industrial datasets all demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Prompt Learning on Temporal Interaction Graphs

Temporal Interaction Graphs (TIGs) are widely utilized to represent real-world systems. To facilitate representation learning on TIGs, researchers have proposed a series of TIG models. However, these models are still facing two tough gaps between the pre-training and downstream predictions in their ``pre-train, predict'' training paradigm. First, the temporal discrepancy between the pre-training and inference data severely undermines the models' applicability in distant future predictions on the dynamically evolving data. Second, the semantic divergence between pretext and downstream tasks hinders their practical applications, as they struggle to align with their learning and prediction capabilities across application scenarios. Recently, the ``pre-train, prompt'' paradigm has emerged as a lightweight mechanism for model generalization. Applying this paradigm is a potential solution to solve the aforementioned challenges. However, the adaptation of this paradigm to TIGs is not straightforward. The application of prompting in static graph contexts falls short in temporal settings due to a lack of consideration for time-sensitive dynamics and a deficiency in expressive power. To address this issue, we introduce Temporal Interaction Graph Prompting (TIGPrompt), a versatile framework that seamlessly integrates with TIG models, bridging both the temporal and semantic gaps. In detail, we propose a temporal prompt generator to offer temporally-aware prompts for different tasks. These prompts stand out for their minimalistic design, relying solely on the tuning of the prompt generator with very little supervision data. To cater to varying computational resource demands, we propose an extended ``pre-train, prompt-based fine-tune'' paradigm, offering greater flexibility. Through extensive experiments, the TIGPrompt demonstrates the SOTA performance and remarkable efficiency advantages.

Incorporating Causal Analysis into Diversified and Logical Response Generation

Although the Conditional Variational AutoEncoder (CVAE) model can generate more diversified responses than the traditional Seq2Seq model, the responses often have low relevance with the input words or are illogical with the question. A causal analysis is carried out to study the reasons behind, and a methodology of searching for the mediators and mitigating the confounding bias in dialogues is provided. Specifically, we propose to predict the mediators to preserve relevant information and auto-regressively incorporate the mediators into generating process. Besides, a dynamic topic graph guided conditional variational autoencoder (TGG-CVAE) model is utilized to complement the semantic space and reduce the confounding bias in responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed model is able to generate both relevant and informative responses, and outperforms the state-of-the-art in terms of automatic metrics and human evaluations.

Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network for Marketing Campaigns Effect

Marketing campaigns are a set of strategic activities that can promote a business's goal. The effect prediction for marketing campaigns in a real industrial scenario is very complex and challenging due to the fact that prior knowledge is often learned from observation data, without any intervention for the marketing campaign. Furthermore, each subject is always under the interference of several marketing campaigns simultaneously. Therefore, we cannot easily parse and evaluate the effect of a single marketing campaign. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently no effective methodologies to solve such a problem, i.e., modeling an individual-level prediction task based on a hierarchical structure with multiple intertwined events. In this paper, we provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying parse tree-like structure involved in the effect prediction task and we further establish a Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet) for predicting the effects of marketing campaigns. Extensive results based on both the synthetic data and real data demonstrate the superiority of our model over the state-of-the-art methods and show remarkable practicability in real industrial applications.