Decision Support System for Chronic Diseases Based on Drug-Drug Interactions

Many patients with chronic diseases resort to multiple medications to relieve various symptoms, which raises concerns about the safety of multiple medication use, as severe drug-drug antagonism can lead to serious adverse effects or even death. This paper presents a Decision Support System, called DSSDDI, based on drug-drug interactions to support doctors prescribing decisions. DSSDDI contains three modules, Drug-Drug Interaction (DDI) module, Medical Decision (MD) module and Medical Support (MS) module. The DDI module learns safer and more effective drug representations from the drug-drug interactions. To capture the potential causal relationship between DDI and medication use, the MD module considers the representations of patients and drugs as context, DDI and patients' similarity as treatment, and medication use as outcome to construct counterfactual links for the representation learning. Furthermore, the MS module provides drug candidates to doctors with explanations. Experiments on the chronic data collected from the Hong Kong Chronic Disease Study Project and a public diagnostic data MIMIC-III demonstrate that DSSDDI can be a reliable reference for doctors in terms of safety and efficiency of clinical diagnosis, with significant improvements compared to baseline methods.

Data-Driven Offline Decision-Making via Invariant Representation Learning

The goal in offline data-driven decision-making is synthesize decisions that optimize a black-box utility function, using a previously-collected static dataset, with no active interaction. These problems appear in many forms: offline reinforcement learning (RL), where we must produce actions that optimize the long-term reward, bandits from logged data, where the goal is to determine the correct arm, and offline model-based optimization (MBO) problems, where we must find the optimal design provided access to only a static dataset. A key challenge in all these settings is distributional shift: when we optimize with respect to the input into a model trained from offline data, it is easy to produce an out-of-distribution (OOD) input that appears erroneously good. In contrast to prior approaches that utilize pessimism or conservatism to tackle this problem, in this paper, we formulate offline data-driven decision-making as domain adaptation, where the goal is to make accurate predictions for the value of optimized decisions ("target domain"), when training only on the dataset ("source domain"). This perspective leads to invariant objective models (IOM), our approach for addressing distributional shift by enforcing invariance between the learned representations of the training dataset and optimized decisions. In IOM, if the optimized decisions are too different from the training dataset, the representation will be forced to lose much of the information that distinguishes good designs from bad ones, making all choices seem mediocre. Critically, when the optimizer is aware of this representational tradeoff, it should choose not to stray too far from the training distribution, leading to a natural trade-off between distributional shift and learning performance.

Improved Prediction of Beta-Amyloid and Tau Burden Using Hippocampal Surface Multivariate Morphometry Statistics and Sparse Coding

Background: Beta-amyloid (A$\beta$) plaques and tau protein tangles in the brain are the defining 'A' and 'T' hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and together with structural atrophy detectable on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans as one of the neurodegenerative ('N') biomarkers comprise the ''ATN framework'' of AD. Current methods to detect A$\beta$/tau pathology include cerebrospinal fluid (CSF; invasive), positron emission tomography (PET; costly and not widely available), and blood-based biomarkers (BBBM; promising but mainly still in development). Objective: To develop a non-invasive and widely available structural MRI-based framework to quantitatively predict the amyloid and tau measurements. Methods: With MRI-based hippocampal multivariate morphometry statistics (MMS) features, we apply our Patch Analysis-based Surface Correntropy-induced Sparse coding and max-pooling (PASCS-MP) method combined with the ridge regression model to individual amyloid/tau measure prediction. Results: We evaluate our framework on amyloid PET/MRI and tau PET/MRI datasets from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Each subject has one pair consisting of a PET image and MRI scan, collected at about the same time. Experimental results suggest that amyloid/tau measurements predicted with our PASCP-MP representations are closer to the real values than the measures derived from other approaches, such as hippocampal surface area, volume, and shape morphometry features based on spherical harmonics (SPHARM). Conclusion: The MMS-based PASCP-MP is an efficient tool that can bridge hippocampal atrophy with amyloid and tau pathology and thus help assess disease burden, progression, and treatment effects.

Greykite: Deploying Flexible Forecasting at Scale at LinkedIn

Forecasts help businesses allocate resources and achieve objectives. At LinkedIn, product owners use forecasts to set business targets, track outlook, and monitor health. Engineers use forecasts to efficiently provision hardware. Developing a forecasting solution to meet these needs requires accurate and interpretable forecasts on diverse time series with sub-hourly to quarterly frequencies. We present Greykite, an open-source Python library for forecasting that has been deployed on over twenty use cases at LinkedIn. Its flagship algorithm, Silverkite, provides interpretable, fast, and highly flexible univariate forecasts that capture effects such as time-varying growth and seasonality, autocorrelation, holidays, and regressors. The library enables self-serve accuracy and trust by facilitating data exploration, model configuration, execution, and interpretation. Our benchmark results show excellent out-of-the-box speed and accuracy on datasets from a variety of domains. Over the past two years, Greykite forecasts have been trusted by Finance, Engineering, and Product teams for resource planning and allocation, target setting and progress tracking, anomaly detection and root cause analysis. We expect Greykite to be useful to forecast practitioners with similar applications who need accurate, interpretable forecasts that capture complex dynamics common to time series related to human activity.

Context-Aware Language Modeling for Goal-Oriented Dialogue Systems

Goal-oriented dialogue systems face a trade-off between fluent language generation and task-specific control. While supervised learning with large language models is capable of producing realistic text, how to steer such responses towards completing a specific task without sacrificing language quality remains an open question. In this work, we formulate goal-oriented dialogue as a partially observed Markov decision process, interpreting the language model as a representation of both the dynamics and the policy. This view allows us to extend techniques from learning-based control, such as task relabeling, to derive a simple and effective method to finetune language models in a goal-aware way, leading to significantly improved task performance. We additionally introduce a number of training strategies that serve to better focus the model on the task at hand. We evaluate our method, Context-Aware Language Models (CALM), on a practical flight-booking task using AirDialogue. Empirically, CALM outperforms the state-of-the-art method by 7% in terms of task success, matching human-level task performance.

Predicting Tau Accumulation in Cerebral Cortex with Multivariate MRI Morphometry Measurements, Sparse Coding, and Correntropy

Biomarker-assisted diagnosis and intervention in Alzheimer's disease (AD) may be the key to prevention breakthroughs. One of the hallmarks of AD is the accumulation of tau plaques in the human brain. However, current methods to detect tau pathology are either invasive (lumbar puncture) or quite costly and not widely available (Tau PET). In our previous work, structural MRI-based hippocampal multivariate morphometry statistics (MMS) showed superior performance as an effective neurodegenerative biomarker for preclinical AD and Patch Analysis-based Surface Correntropy-induced Sparse coding and max-pooling (PASCS-MP) has excellent ability to generate low-dimensional representations with strong statistical power for brain amyloid prediction. In this work, we apply this framework together with ridge regression models to predict Tau deposition in Braak12 and Braak34 brain regions separately. We evaluate our framework on 925 subjects from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Each subject has one pair consisting of a PET image and MRI scan which were collected at about the same times. Experimental results suggest that the representations from our MMS and PASCS-MP have stronger predictive power and their predicted Braak12 and Braak34 are closer to the real values compared to the measures derived from other approaches such as hippocampal surface area and volume, and shape morphometry features based on spherical harmonics (SPHARM).

Online Adaptation to Label Distribution Shift

Machine learning models often encounter distribution shifts when deployed in the real world. In this paper, we focus on adaptation to label distribution shift in the online setting, where the test-time label distribution is continually changing and the model must dynamically adapt to it without observing the true label. Leveraging a novel analysis, we show that the lack of true label does not hinder estimation of the expected test loss, which enables the reduction of online label shift adaptation to conventional online learning. Informed by this observation, we propose adaptation algorithms inspired by classical online learning techniques such as Follow The Leader (FTL) and Online Gradient Descent (OGD) and derive their regret bounds. We empirically verify our findings under both simulated and real world label distribution shifts and show that OGD is particularly effective and robust to a variety of challenging label shift scenarios.

R2D2: Recursive Transformer based on Differentiable Tree for Interpretable Hierarchical Language Modeling

Human language understanding operates at multiple levels of granularity (e.g., words, phrases, and sentences) with increasing levels of abstraction that can be hierarchically combined. However, existing deep models with stacked layers do not explicitly model any sort of hierarchical process. This paper proposes a recursive Transformer model based on differentiable CKY style binary trees to emulate the composition process. We extend the bidirectional language model pre-training objective to this architecture, attempting to predict each word given its left and right abstraction nodes. To scale up our approach, we also introduce an efficient pruned tree induction algorithm to enable encoding in just a linear number of composition steps. Experimental results on language modeling and unsupervised parsing show the effectiveness of our approach.

Optimizing Rankings for Recommendation in Matching Markets

Based on the success of recommender systems in e-commerce, there is growing interest in their use in matching markets (e.g., labor). While this holds potential for improving market fluidity and fairness, we show in this paper that naively applying existing recommender systems to matching markets is sub-optimal. Considering the standard process where candidates apply and then get evaluated by employers, we present a new recommendation framework to model this interaction mechanism and propose efficient algorithms for computing personalized rankings in this setting. We show that the optimal rankings need to not only account for the potentially divergent preferences of candidates and employers, but they also need to account for capacity constraints. This makes conventional ranking systems that merely rank by some local score (e.g., one-sided or reciprocal relevance) highly sub-optimal -- not only for an individual user, but also for societal goals (e.g., low unemployment). To address this shortcoming, we propose the first method for jointly optimizing the rankings for all candidates in the market to explicitly maximize social welfare. In addition to the theoretical derivation, we evaluate the method both on simulated environments and on data from a real-world networking-recommendation system that we built and fielded at a large computer science conference.

Developing Univariate Neurodegeneration Biomarkers with Low-Rank and Sparse Subspace Decomposition

Cognitive decline due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is closely associated with brain structure alterations captured by structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI). It supports the validity to develop sMRI-based univariate neurodegeneration biomarkers (UNB). However, existing UNB work either fails to model large group variances or does not capture AD dementia (ADD) induced changes. We propose a novel low-rank and sparse subspace decomposition method capable of stably quantifying the morphological changes induced by ADD. Specifically, we propose a numerically efficient rank minimization mechanism to extract group common structure and impose regularization constraints to encode the original 3D morphometry connectivity. Further, we generate regions-of-interest (ROI) with group difference study between common subspaces of $A\beta+$ AD and $A\beta-$ cognitively unimpaired (CU) groups. A univariate morphometry index (UMI) is constructed from these ROIs by summarizing individual morphological characteristics weighted by normalized difference between $A\beta+$ AD and $A\beta-$ CU groups. We use hippocampal surface radial distance feature to compute the UMIs and validate our work in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. With hippocampal UMIs, the estimated minimum sample sizes needed to detect a 25$\%$ reduction in the mean annual change with 80$\%$ power and two-tailed $P=0.05$ are 116, 279 and 387 for the longitudinal $A\beta+$ AD, $A\beta+$ mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and $A\beta+$ CU groups, respectively. Additionally, for MCI patients, UMIs well correlate with hazard ratio of conversion to AD ($4.3$, $95\%$ CI=$2.3-8.2$) within 18 months. Our experimental results outperform traditional hippocampal volume measures and suggest the application of UMI as a potential UNB.