Inferring Outcome Means of Exponential Family Distributions Estimated by Deep Neural Networks

While deep neural networks (DNNs) are widely used for prediction, inference on DNN-estimated subject-specific means for categorical or exponential family outcomes remains underexplored. We address this by proposing a DNN estimator under generalized nonparametric regression models (GNRMs) and developing a rigorous inference framework. Unlike existing approaches that assume independence between prediction errors and inputs to establish the error bound, a condition often violated in GNRMs, we allow for dependence and our theoretical analysis demonstrates the feasibility of drawing inference under GNRMs. To implement inference, we consider an Ensemble Subsampling Method (ESM) that leverages U-statistics and the Hoeffding decomposition to construct reliable confidence intervals for DNN estimates. We show that, under GNRM settings, ESM enables model-free variance estimation and accounts for heterogeneity among individuals in the population. Through simulations under nonparametric logistic, Poisson, and binomial regression models, we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method. We further apply the method to the electronic Intensive Care Unit (eICU) dataset, a large-scale collection of anonymized health records from ICU patients, to predict ICU readmission risk and offer patient-centric insights for clinical decision-making.

Prototype-Based Continual Learning with Label-free Replay Buffer and Cluster Preservation Loss

Continual learning techniques employ simple replay sample selection processes and use them during subsequent tasks. Typically, they rely on labeled data. In this paper, we depart from this by automatically selecting prototypes stored without labels, preserving cluster structures in the latent space across tasks. By eliminating label dependence in the replay buffer and introducing cluster preservation loss, it is demonstrated that the proposed method can maintain essential information from previously encountered tasks while ensuring adaptation to new tasks. "Push-away" and "pull-toward" mechanisms over previously learned prototypes are also introduced for class-incremental and domain-incremental scenarios. These mechanisms ensure the retention of previously learned information as well as adaptation to new classes or domain shifts. The proposed method is evaluated on several benchmarks, including SplitCIFAR100, SplitImageNet32, SplitTinyImageNet, and SplitCaltech256 for class-incremental, as well as R-MNIST and CORe50 for domain-incremental setting using pre-extracted DINOv2 features. Experimental results indicate that the label-free replay-based technique outperforms state-of-the-art continual learning methods and, in some cases, even surpasses offline learning. An unsupervised variant of the proposed technique for the class-incremental setting, avoiding labels use even on incoming data, also demonstrated competitive performance, outperforming particular supervised baselines in some cases. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the proposed framework in retaining prior information and facilitating continual adaptation.

Intelligent Bear Prevention System Based on Computer Vision: An Approach to Reduce Human-Bear Conflicts in the Tibetan Plateau Area, China

Conflicts between humans and bears on the Tibetan Plateau present substantial threats to local communities and hinder wildlife preservation initiatives. This research introduces a novel strategy that incorporates computer vision alongside Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to alleviate these issues. Tailored specifically for the harsh environment of the Tibetan Plateau, the approach utilizes the K210 development board paired with the YOLO object detection framework along with a tailored bear-deterrent mechanism, offering minimal energy usage and real-time efficiency in bear identification and deterrence. The model's performance was evaluated experimentally, achieving a mean Average Precision (mAP) of 91.4%, demonstrating excellent precision and dependability. By integrating energy-efficient components, the proposed system effectively surpasses the challenges of remote and off-grid environments, ensuring uninterrupted operation in secluded locations. This study provides a viable, eco-friendly, and expandable solution to mitigate human-bear conflicts, thereby improving human safety and promoting bear conservation in isolated areas like Yushu, China.

Sparse Meets Dense: Unified Generative Recommendations with Cascaded Sparse-Dense Representations

Generative models have recently gained attention in recommendation systems by directly predicting item identifiers from user interaction sequences. However, existing methods suffer from significant information loss due to the separation of stages such as quantization and sequence modeling, hindering their ability to achieve the modeling precision and accuracy of sequential dense retrieval techniques. Integrating generative and dense retrieval methods remains a critical challenge. To address this, we introduce the Cascaded Organized Bi-Represented generAtive retrieval (COBRA) framework, which innovatively integrates sparse semantic IDs and dense vectors through a cascading process. Our method alternates between generating these representations by first generating sparse IDs, which serve as conditions to aid in the generation of dense vectors. End-to-end training enables dynamic refinement of dense representations, capturing both semantic insights and collaborative signals from user-item interactions. During inference, COBRA employs a coarse-to-fine strategy, starting with sparse ID generation and refining them into dense vectors via the generative model. We further propose BeamFusion, an innovative approach combining beam search with nearest neighbor scores to enhance inference flexibility and recommendation diversity. Extensive experiments on public datasets and offline tests validate our method's robustness. Online A/B tests on a real-world advertising platform with over 200 million daily users demonstrate substantial improvements in key metrics, highlighting COBRA's practical advantages.

Near-optimal Active Regression of Single-Index Models

The active regression problem of the single-index model is to solve $\min_x \lVert f(Ax)-b\rVert_p$, where $A$ is fully accessible and $b$ can only be accessed via entry queries, with the goal of minimizing the number of queries to the entries of $b$. When $f$ is Lipschitz, previous results only obtain constant-factor approximations. This work presents the first algorithm that provides a $(1+\varepsilon)$-approximation solution by querying $\tilde{O}(d^{\frac{p}{2}\vee 1}/\varepsilon^{p\vee 2})$ entries of $b$. This query complexity is also shown to be optimal up to logarithmic factors for $p\in [1,2]$ and the $\varepsilon$-dependence of $1/\varepsilon^p$ is shown to be optimal for $p>2$.

AI Models Still Lag Behind Traditional Numerical Models in Predicting Sudden-Turning Typhoons

Given the interpretability, accuracy, and stability of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, current operational weather forecasting relies heavily on the NWP approach. In the past two years, the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has provided an alternative solution for medium-range (1-10 days) weather forecasting. Bi et al. (2023) (hereafter Bi23) introduced the first AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) model in China, named Pangu-Weather, which offers fast prediction without compromising accuracy. In their work, Bi23 made notable claims regarding its effectiveness in extreme weather predictions. However, this claim lacks persuasiveness because the extreme nature of the two tropical cyclones (TCs) examples presented in Bi23, namely Typhoon Kong-rey and Typhoon Yutu, stems primarily from their intensities rather than their moving paths. Their claim may mislead into another meaning which is that Pangu-Weather works well in predicting unusual typhoon paths, which was not explicitly analyzed. Here, we reassess Pangu-Weather's ability to predict extreme TC trajectories from 2020-2024. Results reveal that while Pangu-Weather overall outperforms NWP models in predicting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, it falls short in accurately predicting the rarely observed sudden-turning tracks, such as Typhoon Khanun in 2023. We argue that current AIWP models still lag behind traditional NWP models in predicting such rare extreme events in medium-range forecasts.

Towards Secure Program Partitioning for Smart Contracts with LLM's In-Context Learning

Smart contracts are highly susceptible to manipulation attacks due to the leakage of sensitive information. Addressing manipulation vulnerabilities is particularly challenging because they stem from inherent data confidentiality issues rather than straightforward implementation bugs. To tackle this by preventing sensitive information leakage, we present PartitionGPT, the first LLM-driven approach that combines static analysis with the in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to partition smart contracts into privileged and normal codebases, guided by a few annotated sensitive data variables. We evaluated PartitionGPT on 18 annotated smart contracts containing 99 sensitive functions. The results demonstrate that PartitionGPT successfully generates compilable, and verified partitions for 78% of the sensitive functions while reducing approximately 30% code compared to function-level partitioning approach. Furthermore, we evaluated PartitionGPT on nine real-world manipulation attacks that lead to a total loss of 25 million dollars, PartitionGPT effectively prevents eight cases, highlighting its potential for broad applicability and the necessity for secure program partitioning during smart contract development to diminish manipulation vulnerabilities.

DeFiScope: Detecting Various DeFi Price Manipulations with LLM Reasoning

DeFi (Decentralized Finance) is one of the most important applications of today's cryptocurrencies and smart contracts. It manages hundreds of billions in Total Value Locked (TVL) on-chain, yet it remains susceptible to common DeFi price manipulation attacks. Despite state-of-the-art (SOTA) systems like DeFiRanger and DeFort, we found that they are less effective to non-standard price models in custom DeFi protocols, which account for 44.2% of the 95 DeFi price manipulation attacks reported over the past three years. In this paper, we introduce the first LLM-based approach, DeFiScope, for detecting DeFi price manipulation attacks in both standard and custom price models. Our insight is that large language models (LLMs) have certain intelligence to abstract price calculation from code and infer the trend of token price changes based on the extracted price models. To further strengthen LLMs in this aspect, we leverage Foundry to synthesize on-chain data and use it to fine-tune a DeFi price-specific LLM. Together with the high-level DeFi operations recovered from low-level transaction data, DeFiScope detects various DeFi price manipulations according to systematically mined patterns. Experimental results show that DeFiScope achieves a high precision of 96% and a recall rate of 80%, significantly outperforming SOTA approaches. Moreover, we evaluate DeFiScope's cost-effectiveness and demonstrate its practicality by helping our industry partner confirm 147 real-world price manipulation attacks, including discovering 81 previously unknown historical incidents.

HAMSTER: Hierarchical Action Models For Open-World Robot Manipulation

Large foundation models have shown strong open-world generalization to complex problems in vision and language, but similar levels of generalization have yet to be achieved in robotics. One fundamental challenge is the lack of robotic data, which are typically obtained through expensive on-robot operation. A promising remedy is to leverage cheaper, off-domain data such as action-free videos, hand-drawn sketches or simulation data. In this work, we posit that hierarchical vision-language-action (VLA) models can be more effective in utilizing off-domain data than standard monolithic VLA models that directly finetune vision-language models (VLMs) to predict actions. In particular, we study a class of hierarchical VLA models, where the high-level VLM is finetuned to produce a coarse 2D path indicating the desired robot end-effector trajectory given an RGB image and a task description. The intermediate 2D path prediction is then served as guidance to the low-level, 3D-aware control policy capable of precise manipulation. Doing so alleviates the high-level VLM from fine-grained action prediction, while reducing the low-level policy's burden on complex task-level reasoning. We show that, with the hierarchical design, the high-level VLM can transfer across significant domain gaps between the off-domain finetuning data and real-robot testing scenarios, including differences on embodiments, dynamics, visual appearances and task semantics, etc. In the real-robot experiments, we observe an average of 20% improvement in success rate across seven different axes of generalization over OpenVLA, representing a 50% relative gain. Visual results are provided at: https://hamster-robot.github.io/

Consensus statement on the credibility assessment of ML predictors

The rapid integration of machine learning (ML) predictors into in silico medicine has revolutionized the estimation of quantities of interest (QIs) that are otherwise challenging to measure directly. However, the credibility of these predictors is critical, especially when they inform high-stakes healthcare decisions. This position paper presents a consensus statement developed by experts within the In Silico World Community of Practice. We outline twelve key statements forming the theoretical foundation for evaluating the credibility of ML predictors, emphasizing the necessity of causal knowledge, rigorous error quantification, and robustness to biases. By comparing ML predictors with biophysical models, we highlight unique challenges associated with implicit causal knowledge and propose strategies to ensure reliability and applicability. Our recommendations aim to guide researchers, developers, and regulators in the rigorous assessment and deployment of ML predictors in clinical and biomedical contexts.