Less Is More: Fast Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Light Sampling-oriented MLP Structures

Multivariate time series forecasting has seen widely ranging applications in various domains, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare. To capture the sophisticated temporal patterns, plenty of research studies designed complex neural network architectures based on many variants of RNNs, GNNs, and Transformers. However, complex models are often computationally expensive and thus face a severe challenge in training and inference efficiency when applied to large-scale real-world datasets. In this paper, we introduce LightTS, a light deep learning architecture merely based on simple MLP-based structures. The key idea of LightTS is to apply an MLP-based structure on top of two delicate down-sampling strategies, including interval sampling and continuous sampling, inspired by a crucial fact that down-sampling time series often preserves the majority of its information. We conduct extensive experiments on eight widely used benchmark datasets. Compared with the existing state-of-the-art methods, LightTS demonstrates better performance on five of them and comparable performance on the rest. Moreover, LightTS is highly efficient. It uses less than 5% FLOPS compared with previous SOTA methods on the largest benchmark dataset. In addition, LightTS is robust and has a much smaller variance in forecasting accuracy than previous SOTA methods in long sequence forecasting tasks.

DEPTS: Deep Expansion Learning for Periodic Time Series Forecasting

Periodic time series (PTS) forecasting plays a crucial role in a variety of industries to foster critical tasks, such as early warning, pre-planning, resource scheduling, etc. However, the complicated dependencies of the PTS signal on its inherent periodicity as well as the sophisticated composition of various periods hinder the performance of PTS forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a deep expansion learning framework, DEPTS, for PTS forecasting. DEPTS starts with a decoupled formulation by introducing the periodic state as a hidden variable, which stimulates us to make two dedicated modules to tackle the aforementioned two challenges. First, we develop an expansion module on top of residual learning to perform a layer-by-layer expansion of those complicated dependencies. Second, we introduce a periodicity module with a parameterized periodic function that holds sufficient capacity to capture diversified periods. Moreover, our two customized modules also have certain interpretable capabilities, such as attributing the forecasts to either local momenta or global periodicity and characterizing certain core periodic properties, e.g., amplitudes and frequencies. Extensive experiments on both synthetic data and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of DEPTS on handling PTS. In most cases, DEPTS achieves significant improvements over the best baseline. Specifically, the error reduction can even reach up to 20% for a few cases. Finally, all codes are publicly available.