Confidence Calibration under Ambiguous Ground Truth

Confidence calibration assumes a unique ground-truth label per input, yet this assumption fails wherever annotators genuinely disagree. Post-hoc calibrators fitted on majority-voted labels, the standard single-label targets used in practice, can appear well-calibrated under conventional evaluation yet remain substantially miscalibrated against the underlying annotator distribution. We show that this failure is structural: under simplifying assumptions, Temperature Scaling is biased toward temperatures that underestimate annotator uncertainty, with true-label miscalibration increasing monotonically with annotation entropy. To address this, we develop a family of ambiguity-aware post-hoc calibrators that optimise proper scoring rules against the full label distribution and require no model retraining. Our methods span progressively weaker annotation requirements: Dirichlet-Soft leverages the full annotator distribution and achieves the best overall calibration quality across settings; Monte Carlo Temperature Scaling with a single annotation per example (MCTS S=1) matches full-distribution calibration across all benchmarks, demonstrating that pre-aggregated label distributions are unnecessary; and Label-Smooth Temperature Scaling (LS-TS) operates with voted labels alone by constructing data-driven pseudo-soft targets from the model's own confidence. Experiments on four benchmarks with real multi-annotator distributions (CIFAR-10H, ChaosNLI) and clinically-informed synthetic annotations (ISIC~2019, DermaMNIST) show that Dirichlet-Soft reduces true-label ECE by 55-87% relative to Temperature Scaling, while LS-TS reduces ECE by 9-77% without any annotator data.

HiCI: Hierarchical Construction-Integration for Long-Context Attention

Long-context language modeling is commonly framed as a scalability challenge of token-level attention, yet local-to-global information structuring remains largely implicit in existing approaches. Drawing on cognitive theories of discourse comprehension, we propose HiCI (Hierarchical Construction--Integration), a hierarchical attention module that constructs segment-level representations, integrates them into a shared global context, and broadcasts both to condition segment-level attention. We validate HiCI through parameter-efficient adaptation of LLaMA-2 with only <5.5% additional parameters, extending context from 4K to 100K tokens (7B) and 64K tokens (13B). Across language modeling, retrieval, and instruction-following benchmarks, HiCI yields consistent improvements over strong baselines, including matching proprietary models on topic retrieval and surpassing GPT-3.5-Turbo-16K on code comprehension. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of explicit hierarchical structuring as an inductive bias for long-context modeling.

Routing Channel-Patch Dependencies in Time Series Forecasting with Graph Spectral Decomposition

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in the field of AI. Previous works have revealed that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by modeling each channel individually, but it often suffers from poor generalization and overlooks meaningful inter-channel interactions. Conversely, Channel-Dependent (CD) strategies aggregate all channels, which may introduce irrelevant information and lead to oversmoothing. Despite recent progress, few existing methods offer the flexibility to adaptively balance CI and CD strategies in response to varying channel dependencies. To address this, we propose a generic plugin xCPD, that can adaptively model the channel-patch dependencies from the perspective of graph spectral decomposition. Specifically, xCPD first projects multivariate signals into the frequency domain using a shared graph Fourier basis, and groups patches into low-, mid-, and high-frequency bands based on their spectral energy responses. xCPD then applies a channel-adaptive routing mechanism that dynamically adjusts the degree of inter-channel interaction for each patch, enabling selective activation of frequency-specific experts. This facilitates fine-grained input-aware modeling of smooth trends, local fluctuations, and abrupt transitions. xCPD can be seamlessly integrated on top of existing CI and CD forecasting models, consistently enhancing both accuracy and generalization across benchmarks. The code is available https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/xCPD.

SmoothTurn: Learning to Turn Smoothly for Agile Navigation with Quadrupedal Robots

Quadrupedal robots show great potential for valuable real-world applications such as fire rescue and industrial inspection. Such applications often require urgency and the ability to navigate agilely, which in turn demands the capability to change directions smoothly while running in high speed. Existing approaches for agile navigation typically learn a single-goal reaching policy by encouraging the robot to stay at the target position after reaching there. As a result, when the policy is used to reach sequential goals that require changing directions, it cannot anticipate upcoming maneuvers or maintain momentum across the switch of goals, thereby preventing the robot from fully exploiting its agility potential. In this work, we formulate the task as sequential local navigation, extending the single-goal-conditioned local navigation formulation in prior work. We then introduce SmoothTurn, a learning-based control framework that learns to turn smoothly while running rapidly for agile sequential local navigation. The framework adopts a novel sequential goal-reaching reward, an expanded observation space with a lookahead window for future goals, and an automatic goal curriculum that progressively expands the difficulty of sampled goal sequences based on the goal-reaching performance. The trained policy can be directly deployed on real quadrupedal robots with onboard sensors and computation. Both simulation and real-world empirical results show that SmoothTurn learns an agile locomotion policy that performs smooth turning across goals, with emergent behaviors such as controlling momentum when switching goals, facing towards the future goal in advance, and planning efficient paths. We have provided video demos of the learned motions in the supplementary materials. The source code and trained policies will be made available upon acceptance.

PA-Attack: Guiding Gray-Box Attacks on LVLM Vision Encoders with Prototypes and Attention

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) are foundational to modern multimodal applications, yet their susceptibility to adversarial attacks remains a critical concern. Prior white-box attacks rarely generalize across tasks, and black-box methods depend on expensive transfer, which limits efficiency. The vision encoder, standardized and often shared across LVLMs, provides a stable gray-box pivot with strong cross-model transfer. Building on this premise, we introduce PA-Attack (Prototype-Anchored Attentive Attack). PA-Attack begins with a prototype-anchored guidance that provides a stable attack direction towards a general and dissimilar prototype, tackling the attribute-restricted issue and limited task generalization of vanilla attacks. Building on this, we propose a two-stage attention enhancement mechanism: (i) leverage token-level attention scores to concentrate perturbations on critical visual tokens, and (ii) adaptively recalibrate attention weights to track the evolving attention during the adversarial process. Extensive experiments across diverse downstream tasks and LVLM architectures show that PA-Attack achieves an average 75.1% score reduction rate (SRR), demonstrating strong attack effectiveness, efficiency, and task generalization in LVLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/hefeimei06/PA-Attack.

Sonar-TS: Search-Then-Verify Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases

Natural Language Querying for Time Series Databases (NLQ4TSDB) aims to assist non-expert users retrieve meaningful events, intervals, and summaries from massive temporal records. However, existing Text-to-SQL methods are not designed for continuous morphological intents such as shapes or anomalies, while time series models struggle to handle ultra-long histories. To address these challenges, we propose Sonar-TS, a neuro-symbolic framework that tackles NLQ4TSDB via a Search-Then-Verify pipeline. Analogous to active sonar, it utilizes a feature index to ping candidate windows via SQL, followed by generated Python programs to lock on and verify candidates against raw signals. To enable effective evaluation, we introduce NLQTSBench, the first large-scale benchmark designed for NLQ over TSDB-scale histories. Our experiments highlight the unique challenges within this domain and demonstrate that Sonar-TS effectively navigates complex temporal queries where traditional methods fail. This work presents the first systematic study of NLQ4TSDB, offering a general framework and evaluation standard to facilitate future research.

ModelWisdom: An Integrated Toolkit for TLA+ Model Visualization, Digest and Repair

Model checking in TLA+ provides strong correctness guarantees, yet practitioners continue to face significant challenges in interpreting counterexamples, understanding large state-transition graphs, and repairing faulty models. These difficulties stem from the limited explainability of raw model-checker output and the substantial manual effort required to trace violations back to source specifications. Although the TLA+ Toolbox includes a state diagram viewer, it offers only a static, fully expanded graph without folding, color highlighting, or semantic explanations, which limits its scalability and interpretability. We present ModelWisdom, an interactive environment that uses visualization and large language models to make TLA+ model checking more interpretable and actionable. ModelWisdom offers: (i) Model Visualization, with colorized violation highlighting, click-through links from transitions to TLA+ code, and mapping between violating states and broken properties; (ii) Graph Optimization, including tree-based structuring and node/edge folding to manage large models; (iii) Model Digest, which summarizes and explains subgraphs via large language models (LLMs) and performs preprocessing and partial explanations; and (iv) Model Repair, which extracts error information and supports iterative debugging. Together, these capabilities turn raw model-checker output into an interactive, explainable workflow, improving understanding and reducing debugging effort for nontrivial TLA+ specifications. The website to ModelWisdom is available: https://model-wisdom.pages.dev. A demonstrative video can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plyZo30VShA.

MobileManiBench: Simplifying Model Verification for Mobile Manipulation

Vision-language-action models have advanced robotic manipulation but remain constrained by reliance on the large, teleoperation-collected datasets dominated by the static, tabletop scenes. We propose a simulation-first framework to verify VLA architectures before real-world deployment and introduce MobileManiBench, a large-scale benchmark for mobile-based robotic manipulation. Built on NVIDIA Isaac Sim and powered by reinforcement learning, our pipeline autonomously generates diverse manipulation trajectories with rich annotations (language instructions, multi-view RGB-depth-segmentation images, synchronized object/robot states and actions). MobileManiBench features 2 mobile platforms (parallel-gripper and dexterous-hand robots), 2 synchronized cameras (head and right wrist), 630 objects in 20 categories, 5 skills (open, close, pull, push, pick) with over 100 tasks performed in 100 realistic scenes, yielding 300K trajectories. This design enables controlled, scalable studies of robot embodiments, sensing modalities, and policy architectures, accelerating research on data efficiency and generalization. We benchmark representative VLA models and report insights into perception, reasoning, and control in complex simulated environments.

ERNIE 5.0 Technical Report

In this report, we introduce ERNIE 5.0, a natively autoregressive foundation model desinged for unified multimodal understanding and generation across text, image, video, and audio. All modalities are trained from scratch under a unified next-group-of-tokens prediction objective, based on an ultra-sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture with modality-agnostic expert routing. To address practical challenges in large-scale deployment under diverse resource constraints, ERNIE 5.0 adopts a novel elastic training paradigm. Within a single pre-training run, the model learns a family of sub-models with varying depths, expert capacities, and routing sparsity, enabling flexible trade-offs among performance, model size, and inference latency in memory- or time-constrained scenarios. Moreover, we systematically address the challenges of scaling reinforcement learning to unified foundation models, thereby guaranteeing efficient and stable post-training under ultra-sparse MoE architectures and diverse multimodal settings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ERNIE 5.0 achieves strong and balanced performance across multiple modalities. To the best of our knowledge, among publicly disclosed models, ERNIE 5.0 represents the first production-scale realization of a trillion-parameter unified autoregressive model that supports both multimodal understanding and generation. To facilitate further research, we present detailed visualizations of modality-agnostic expert routing in the unified model, alongside comprehensive empirical analysis of elastic training, aiming to offer profound insights to the community.

Diff-MN: Diffusion Parameterized MoE-NCDE for Continuous Time Series Generation with Irregular Observations

Time series generation (TSG) is widely used across domains, yet most existing methods assume regular sampling and fixed output resolutions. These assumptions are often violated in practice, where observations are irregular and sparse, while downstream applications require continuous and high-resolution TS. Although Neural Controlled Differential Equation (NCDE) is promising for modeling irregular TS, it is constrained by a single dynamics function, tightly coupled optimization, and limited ability to adapt learned dynamics to newly generated samples from the generative model. We propose Diff-MN, a continuous TSG framework that enhances NCDE with a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) dynamics function and a decoupled architectural design for dynamics-focused training. To further enable NCDE to generalize to newly generated samples, Diff-MN employs a diffusion model to parameterize the NCDE temporal dynamics parameters (MoE weights), i.e., jointly learn the distribution of TS data and MoE weights. This design allows sample-specific NCDE parameters to be generated for continuous TS generation. Experiments on ten public and synthetic datasets demonstrate that Diff-MN consistently outperforms strong baselines on both irregular-to-regular and irregular-to-continuous TSG tasks. The code is available at the link https://github.com/microsoft/TimeCraft/tree/main/Diff-MN.