Modeling Cascaded Delay Feedback for Online Net Conversion Rate Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Solutions

In industrial recommender systems, conversion rate (CVR) is widely used for traffic allocation, but it fails to fully reflect recommendation effectiveness because it ignores refund behavior. To better capture true user satisfaction and business value, net conversion rate (NetCVR), defined as the probability that a clicked item is purchased and not refunded, has been proposed.Unlike CVR, NetCVR prediction involves a more complex multi-stage cascaded delayed feedback process. The two cascaded delays from click to conversion and from conversion to refund have opposite effects, making traditional CVR modeling methods inapplicable. Moreover, the lack of open-source datasets and online continuous training schemes further hinders progress in this area.To address these challenges, we introduce CASCADE (Cascaded Sequences of Conversion and Delayed Refund), the first large-scale open dataset derived from the Taobao app for online continuous NetCVR prediction. Through an in-depth analysis of CASCADE, we identify three key insights: (1) NetCVR exhibits strong temporal dynamics, necessitating online continuous modeling; (2) cascaded modeling of CVR and refund rate outperforms direct NetCVR modeling; and (3) delay time, which correlates with both CVR and refund rate, is an important feature for NetCVR prediction.Based on these insights, we propose TESLA, a continuous NetCVR modeling framework featuring a CVR-refund-rate cascaded architecture, stage-wise debiasing, and a delay-time-aware ranking loss. Extensive experiments demonstrate that TESLA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on CASCADE, achieving absolute improvements of 12.41 percent in RI-AUC and 14.94 percent in RI-PRAUC on NetCVR prediction. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/NetCVR.

Delayed Feedback Modeling for Post-Click Gross Merchandise Volume Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Approaches

The prediction objectives of online advertisement ranking models are evolving from probabilistic metrics like conversion rate (CVR) to numerical business metrics like post-click gross merchandise volume (GMV). Unlike the well-studied delayed feedback problem in CVR prediction, delayed feedback modeling for GMV prediction remains unexplored and poses greater challenges, as GMV is a continuous target, and a single click can lead to multiple purchases that cumulatively form the label. To bridge the research gap, we establish TRACE, a GMV prediction benchmark containing complete transaction sequences rising from each user click, which supports delayed feedback modeling in an online streaming manner. Our analysis and exploratory experiments on TRACE reveal two key insights: (1) the rapid evolution of the GMV label distribution necessitates modeling delayed feedback under online streaming training; (2) the label distribution of repurchase samples substantially differs from that of single-purchase samples, highlighting the need for separate modeling. Motivated by these findings, we propose RepurchasE-Aware Dual-branch prEdictoR (READER), a novel GMV modeling paradigm that selectively activates expert parameters according to repurchase predictions produced by a router. Moreover, READER dynamically calibrates the regression target to mitigate under-estimation caused by incomplete labels. Experimental results show that READER yields superior performance on TRACE over baselines, achieving a 2.19% improvement in terms of accuracy. We believe that our study will open up a new avenue for studying online delayed feedback modeling for GMV prediction, and our TRACE benchmark with the gathered insights will facilitate future research and application in this promising direction. Our code and dataset are available at https://github.com/alimama-tech/OnlineGMV .

MUSE: A Simple Yet Effective Multimodal Search-Based Framework for Lifelong User Interest Modeling

Lifelong user interest modeling is crucial for industrial recommender systems, yet existing approaches rely predominantly on ID-based features, suffering from poor generalization on long-tail items and limited semantic expressiveness. While recent work explores multimodal representations for behavior retrieval in the General Search Unit (GSU), they often neglect multimodal integration in the fine-grained modeling stage -- the Exact Search Unit (ESU). In this work, we present a systematic analysis of how to effectively leverage multimodal signals across both stages of the two-stage lifelong modeling framework. Our key insight is that simplicity suffices in the GSU: lightweight cosine similarity with high-quality multimodal embeddings outperforms complex retrieval mechanisms. In contrast, the ESU demands richer multimodal sequence modeling and effective ID-multimodal fusion to unlock its full potential. Guided by these principles, we propose MUSE, a simple yet effective multimodal search-based framework. MUSE has been deployed in Taobao display advertising system, enabling 100K-length user behavior sequence modeling and delivering significant gains in top-line metrics with negligible online latency overhead. To foster community research, we share industrial deployment practices and open-source the first large-scale dataset featuring ultra-long behavior sequences paired with high-quality multimodal embeddings. Our code and data is available at https://taobao-mm.github.io.

AIF: Asynchronous Inference Framework for Cost-Effective Pre-Ranking

In industrial recommendation systems, pre-ranking models based on deep neural networks (DNNs) commonly adopt a sequential execution framework: feature fetching and model forward computation are triggered only after receiving candidates from the upstream retrieval stage. This design introduces inherent bottlenecks, including redundant computations of identical users/items and increased latency due to strictly sequential operations, which jointly constrain the model's capacity and system efficiency. To address these limitations, we propose the Asynchronous Inference Framework (AIF), a cost-effective computational architecture that decouples interaction-independent components, those operating within a single user or item, from real-time prediction. AIF reorganizes the model inference process by performing user-side computations in parallel with the retrieval stage and conducting item-side computations in a nearline manner. This means that interaction-independent components are calculated just once and completed before the real-time prediction phase of the pre-ranking stage. As a result, AIF enhances computational efficiency and reduces latency, freeing up resources to significantly improve the feature set and model architecture of interaction-independent components. Moreover, we delve into model design within the AIF framework, employing approximated methods for interaction-dependent components in online real-time predictions. By co-designing both the framework and the model, our solution achieves notable performance gains without significantly increasing computational and latency costs. This has enabled the successful deployment of AIF in the Taobao display advertising system.

See Beyond a Single View: Multi-Attribution Learning Leads to Better Conversion Rate Prediction

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is a core component of online advertising systems, where the attribution mechanisms-rules for allocating conversion credit across user touchpoints-fundamentally determine label generation and model optimization. While many industrial platforms support diverse attribution mechanisms (e.g., First-Click, Last-Click, Linear, and Data-Driven Multi-Touch Attribution), conventional approaches restrict model training to labels from a single production-critical attribution mechanism, discarding complementary signals in alternative attribution perspectives. To address this limitation, we propose a novel Multi-Attribution Learning (MAL) framework for CVR prediction that integrates signals from multiple attribution perspectives to better capture the underlying patterns driving user conversions. Specifically, MAL is a joint learning framework consisting of two core components: the Attribution Knowledge Aggregator (AKA) and the Primary Target Predictor (PTP). AKA is implemented as a multi-task learner that integrates knowledge extracted from diverse attribution labels. PTP, in contrast, focuses on the task of generating well-calibrated conversion probabilities that align with the system-optimized attribution metric (e.g., CVR under the Last-Click attribution), ensuring direct compatibility with industrial deployment requirements. Additionally, we propose CAT, a novel training strategy that leverages the Cartesian product of all attribution label combinations to generate enriched supervision signals. This design substantially enhances the performance of the attribution knowledge aggregator. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the superiority of MAL over single-attribution learning baselines, achieving +0.51% GAUC improvement on offline metrics. Online experiments demonstrate that MAL achieved a +2.6% increase in ROI (Return on Investment).

Enhancing Taobao Display Advertising with Multimodal Representations: Challenges, Approaches and Insights

Despite the recognized potential of multimodal data to improve model accuracy, many large-scale industrial recommendation systems, including Taobao display advertising system, predominantly depend on sparse ID features in their models. In this work, we explore approaches to leverage multimodal data to enhance the recommendation accuracy. We start from identifying the key challenges in adopting multimodal data in a manner that is both effective and cost-efficient for industrial systems. To address these challenges, we introduce a two-phase framework, including: 1) the pre-training of multimodal representations to capture semantic similarity, and 2) the integration of these representations with existing ID-based models. Furthermore, we detail the architecture of our production system, which is designed to facilitate the deployment of multimodal representations. Since the integration of multimodal representations in mid-2023, we have observed significant performance improvements in Taobao display advertising system. We believe that the insights we have gathered will serve as a valuable resource for practitioners seeking to leverage multimodal data in their systems.

Calibration-compatible Listwise Distillation of Privileged Features for CTR Prediction

In machine learning systems, privileged features refer to the features that are available during offline training but inaccessible for online serving. Previous studies have recognized the importance of privileged features and explored ways to tackle online-offline discrepancies. A typical practice is privileged features distillation (PFD): train a teacher model using all features (including privileged ones) and then distill the knowledge from the teacher model using a student model (excluding the privileged features), which is then employed for online serving. In practice, the pointwise cross-entropy loss is often adopted for PFD. However, this loss is insufficient to distill the ranking ability for CTR prediction. First, it does not consider the non-i.i.d. characteristic of the data distribution, i.e., other items on the same page significantly impact the click probability of the candidate item. Second, it fails to consider the relative item order ranked by the teacher model's predictions, which is essential to distill the ranking ability. To address these issues, we first extend the pointwise-based PFD to the listwise-based PFD. We then define the calibration-compatible property of distillation loss and show that commonly used listwise losses do not satisfy this property when employed as distillation loss, thus compromising the model's calibration ability, which is another important measure for CTR prediction. To tackle this dilemma, we propose Calibration-compatible LIstwise Distillation (CLID), which employs carefully-designed listwise distillation loss to achieve better ranking ability than the pointwise-based PFD while preserving the model's calibration ability. We theoretically prove it is calibration-compatible. Extensive experiments on public datasets and a production dataset collected from the display advertising system of Alibaba further demonstrate the effectiveness of CLID.

Entire Space Cascade Delayed Feedback Modeling for Effective Conversion Rate Prediction

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is an essential task for large-scale e-commerce platforms. However, refund behaviors frequently occur after conversion in online shopping systems, which drives us to pay attention to effective conversion for building healthier shopping services. This paper defines the probability of item purchasing without any subsequent refund as an effective conversion rate (ECVR). A simple paradigm for ECVR prediction is to decompose it into two sub-tasks: CVR prediction and post-conversion refund rate (RFR) prediction. However, RFR prediction suffers from data sparsity (DS) and sample selection bias (SSB) issues, as the refund behaviors are only available after user purchase. Furthermore, there is delayed feedback in both conversion and refund events and they are sequentially dependent, named cascade delayed feedback (CDF), which significantly harms data freshness for model training. Previous studies mainly focus on tackling DS and SSB or delayed feedback for a single event. To jointly tackle these issues in ECVR prediction, we propose an Entire space CAscade Delayed feedback modeling (ECAD) method. Specifically, ECAD deals with DS and SSB by constructing two tasks including CVR prediction and conversion \& refund rate (CVRFR) prediction using the entire space modeling framework. In addition, it carefully schedules auxiliary tasks to leverage both conversion and refund time within data to alleviate CDF. Experimental results on the offline industrial dataset and online A/B testing demonstrate the effectiveness of ECAD. In addition, ECAD has been deployed in one of the recommender systems in Alibaba, contributing to a significant improvement of ECVR.

COPR: Consistency-Oriented Pre-Ranking for Online Advertising

Cascading architecture has been widely adopted in large-scale advertising systems to balance efficiency and effectiveness. In this architecture, the pre-ranking model is expected to be a lightweight approximation of the ranking model, which handles more candidates with strict latency requirements. Due to the gap in model capacity, the pre-ranking and ranking models usually generate inconsistent ranked results, thus hurting the overall system effectiveness. The paradigm of score alignment is proposed to regularize their raw scores to be consistent. However, it suffers from inevitable alignment errors and error amplification by bids when applied in online advertising. To this end, we introduce a consistency-oriented pre-ranking framework for online advertising, which employs a chunk-based sampling module and a plug-and-play rank alignment module to explicitly optimize consistency of ECPM-ranked results. A $\Delta NDCG$-based weighting mechanism is adopted to better distinguish the importance of inter-chunk samples in optimization. Both online and offline experiments have validated the superiority of our framework. When deployed in Taobao display advertising system, it achieves an improvement of up to +12.3\% CTR and +5.6\% RPM.

Capturing Conversion Rate Fluctuation during Sales Promotions: A Novel Historical Data Reuse Approach

Conversion rate (CVR) prediction is one of the core components in online recommender systems, and various approaches have been proposed to obtain accurate and well-calibrated CVR estimation. However, we observe that a well-trained CVR prediction model often performs sub-optimally during sales promotions. This can be largely ascribed to the problem of the data distribution shift, in which the conventional methods no longer work. To this end, we seek to develop alternative modeling techniques for CVR prediction. Observing similar purchase patterns across different promotions, we propose reusing the historical promotion data to capture the promotional conversion patterns. Herein, we propose a novel \textbf{H}istorical \textbf{D}ata \textbf{R}euse (\textbf{HDR}) approach that first retrieves historically similar promotion data and then fine-tunes the CVR prediction model with the acquired data for better adaptation to the promotion mode. HDR consists of three components: an automated data retrieval module that seeks similar data from historical promotions, a distribution shift correction module that re-weights the retrieved data for better aligning with the target promotion, and a TransBlock module that quickly fine-tunes the original model for better adaptation to the promotion mode. Experiments conducted with real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of HDR, as it improves both ranking and calibration metrics to a large extent. HDR has also been deployed on the display advertising system in Alibaba, bringing a lift of $9\%$ RPM and $16\%$ CVR during Double 11 Sales in 2022.