Multi-view Hypergraph Contrastive Policy Learning for Conversational Recommendation

Conversational recommendation systems (CRS) aim to interactively acquire user preferences and accordingly recommend items to users. Accurately learning the dynamic user preferences is of crucial importance for CRS. Previous works learn the user preferences with pairwise relations from the interactive conversation and item knowledge, while largely ignoring the fact that factors for a relationship in CRS are multiplex. Specifically, the user likes/dislikes the items that satisfy some attributes (Like/Dislike view). Moreover social influence is another important factor that affects user preference towards the item (Social view), while is largely ignored by previous works in CRS. The user preferences from these three views are inherently different but also correlated as a whole. The user preferences from the same views should be more similar than that from different views. The user preferences from Like View should be similar to Social View while different from Dislike View. To this end, we propose a novel model, namely Multi-view Hypergraph Contrastive Policy Learning (MHCPL). Specifically, MHCPL timely chooses useful social information according to the interactive history and builds a dynamic hypergraph with three types of multiplex relations from different views. The multiplex relations in each view are successively connected according to their generation order.

Multi-view Intent Disentangle Graph Networks for Bundle Recommendation

Bundle recommendation aims to recommend the user a bundle of items as a whole. Nevertheless, they usually neglect the diversity of the user's intents on adopting items and fail to disentangle the user's intents in representations. In the real scenario of bundle recommendation, a user's intent may be naturally distributed in the different bundles of that user (Global view), while a bundle may contain multiple intents of a user (Local view). Each view has its advantages for intent disentangling: 1) From the global view, more items are involved to present each intent, which can demonstrate the user's preference under each intent more clearly. 2) From the local view, it can reveal the association among items under each intent since items within the same bundle are highly correlated to each other. To this end, we propose a novel model named Multi-view Intent Disentangle Graph Networks (MIDGN), which is capable of precisely and comprehensively capturing the diversity of the user's intent and items' associations at the finer granularity. Specifically, MIDGN disentangles the user's intents from two different perspectives, respectively: 1) In the global level, MIDGN disentangles the user's intent coupled with inter-bundle items; 2) In the Local level, MIDGN disentangles the user's intent coupled with items within each bundle. Meanwhile, we compare the user's intents disentangled from different views under the contrast learning framework to improve the learned intents. Extensive experiments conducted on two benchmark datasets demonstrate that MIDGN outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by over 10.7% and 26.8%, respectively.

Predicting on the Edge: Identifying Where a Larger Model Does Better

Much effort has been devoted to making large and more accurate models, but relatively little has been put into understanding which examples are benefiting from the added complexity. In this paper, we demonstrate and analyze the surprisingly tight link between a model's predictive uncertainty on individual examples and the likelihood that larger models will improve prediction on them. Through extensive numerical studies on the T5 encoder-decoder architecture, we show that large models have the largest improvement on examples where the small model is most uncertain. On more certain examples, even those where the small model is not particularly accurate, large models are often unable to improve at all, and can even perform worse than the smaller model. Based on these findings, we show that a switcher model which defers examples to a larger model when a small model is uncertain can achieve striking improvements in performance and resource usage. We also explore committee-based uncertainty metrics that can be more effective but less practical.

Distribution Embedding Networks for Meta-Learning with Heterogeneous Covariate Spaces

We propose Distribution Embedding Networks (DEN) for classification with small data using meta-learning techniques. Unlike existing meta-learning approaches that focus on image recognition tasks and require the training and target tasks to be similar, DEN is specifically designed to be trained on a diverse set of training tasks and applied on tasks whose number and distribution of covariates differ vastly from its training tasks. Such property of DEN is enabled by its three-block architecture: a covariate transformation block followed by a distribution embedding block and then a classification block. We provide theoretical insights to show that this architecture allows the embedding and classification blocks to be fixed after pre-training on a diverse set of tasks; only the covariate transformation block with relatively few parameters needs to be updated for each new task. To facilitate the training of DEN, we also propose an approach to synthesize binary classification training tasks, and demonstrate that DEN outperforms existing methods in a number of synthetic and real tasks in numerical studies.

Global Optimization Networks

We consider the problem of estimating a good maximizer of a black-box function given noisy examples. To solve such problems, we propose to fit a new type of function which we call a global optimization network (GON), defined as any composition of an invertible function and a unimodal function, whose unique global maximizer can be inferred in $\mathcal{O}(D)$ time. In this paper, we show how to construct invertible and unimodal functions by using linear inequality constraints on lattice models. We also extend to \emph{conditional} GONs that find a global maximizer conditioned on specified inputs of other dimensions. Experiments show the GON maximizers are statistically significantly better predictions than those produced by convex fits, GPR, or DNNs, and are more reasonable predictions for real-world problems.

A recurrent neural network approach for remaining useful life prediction utilizing a novel trend features construction method

Data-driven methods for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction normally learn features from a fixed window size of a priori of degradation, which may lead to less accurate prediction results on different datasets because of the variance of local features. This paper proposes a method for RUL prediction which depends on a trend feature representing the overall time sequence of degradation. Complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition, followed by a reconstruction procedure, is created to build the trend features. The probability distribution of sensors' measurement learned by conditional neural processes is used to evaluate the trend features. With the best trend feature, a data-driven model using long short-term memory is developed to predict the RUL. To prove the effectiveness of the proposed method, experiments on a benchmark C-MAPSS dataset are carried out and compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Comparison results show that the proposed method achieves the smallest root mean square values in prediction of all RUL.

Advances and Open Problems in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning setting where many clients (e.g. mobile devices or whole organizations) collaboratively train a model under the orchestration of a central server (e.g. service provider), while keeping the training data decentralized. FL embodies the principles of focused data collection and minimization, and can mitigate many of the systemic privacy risks and costs resulting from traditional, centralized machine learning and data science approaches. Motivated by the explosive growth in FL research, this paper discusses recent advances and presents an extensive collection of open problems and challenges.

Metric-Optimized Example Weights

Real-world machine learning applications often have complex test metrics, and may have training and test data that follow different distributions. We propose addressing these issues by using a weighted loss function with a standard convex loss, but with weights on the training examples that are learned to optimize the test metric of interest on the validation set. These metric-optimized example weights can be learned for any test metric, including black box losses and customized metrics for specific applications. We illustrate the performance of our proposal with public benchmark datasets and real-world applications with domain shift and custom loss functions that balance multiple objectives, impose fairness policies, and are non-convex and non-decomposable.

In Defense of the Indefensible: A Very Naive Approach to High-Dimensional Inference

In recent years, a great deal of interest has focused on conducting inference on the parameters in a linear model in the high-dimensional setting. In this paper, we consider a simple and very na\"{i}ve two-step procedure for this task, in which we (i) fit a lasso model in order to obtain a subset of the variables; and (ii) fit a least squares model on the lasso-selected set. Conventional statistical wisdom tells us that we cannot make use of the standard statistical inference tools for the resulting least squares model (such as confidence intervals and $p$-values), since we peeked at the data twice: once in running the lasso, and again in fitting the least squares model. However, in this paper, we show that under a certain set of assumptions, with high probability, the set of variables selected by the lasso is deterministic. Consequently, the na\"{i}ve two-step approach can yield confidence intervals that have asymptotically correct coverage, as well as p-values with proper Type-I error control. Furthermore, this two-step approach unifies two existing camps of work on high-dimensional inference: one camp has focused on inference based on a sub-model selected by the lasso, and the other has focused on inference using a debiased version of the lasso estimator.