Regularizing modality contribution drift in multimodal continual learning

Multimodal continual learning (MMCL) aims to learn emerging knowledge from multimodal data while preserving knowledge. To mitigate forgetting, current MMCL methods usually focus on cross-modal representation alignment or semantic similarity, but they overlook whether the relative contributions of individual modalities and their interactions remain stable across incremental tasks. We term this decision-level shift Modality Contribution Drift (MCD) and quantify it with the MCD score, which combines contribution-strength and relative-reliance changes under controlled interventions on modality subsets. Theoretical and empirical analyses further explain why current MMCL methods cannot reliably mitigate this drift. To this end, we propose Continual Modality Contribution Drift Regularization (CMCDR), which preserves the modality contribution structure of previously learned tasks. Since MMCL settings differ in whether old exemplars are available, CMCDR includes both replay-based and replay-free versions. The replay-based version uses modality-subset interventions as diagnostic probes on stored old samples, compares their contribution profiles between the current model and a frozen previous model, and constrains changes in old-sample modality-specific and interaction contributions. The replay-free version uses current-task samples as probes and distills the frozen model's old-task contribution responses, thereby regularizing the observed contribution profile without exemplars. Experiments on multimodal class-incremental learning and continual visual question answering validate the generality and effectiveness of CMCDR.

Machine Learning for Depression Screening and Intervention: an Original Circadian Rhythm Score-based Methodology

Depression screening from large-scale behavioral data is challenged by fragmented circadian indicators, limited interpretability, and the lack of intervention-oriented analysis. Existing approaches typically analyze sleep, activity, and social behaviors in isolation, failing to capture their joint circadian structure. To address this limitation, we first propose the Circadian Rhythm Score (CRS), a composite index that compresses multi-domain daily behaviors into a unified representation of circadian rhythm. CRS is constructed to maximize discriminative power for depression screening while preserving behavioral semantics through non-negativity constraints. Empirical results demonstrate near-lossless compression, where a single CRS retains almost the full predictive capability compared with multiple raw behavioral indicators. Building upon CRS, we develop an interpretable depression screening framework based on gradient-boosted trees and SHAP analysis, revealing nonlinear and saturation-like associations between circadian rhythm and depression risk. Beyond risk prediction, we further integrate interaction modeling and counterfactual regression to estimate heterogeneous and dose-dependent behavioral effects, enabling intervention-oriented reasoning under different circadian contexts. Experiments on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS, n=15,233), demonstrate robust screening performance (ROC-AUC=0.825) and identify actionable behavioral thresholds, including a minimum effective exercise dose of approximately 300 MET-min/week and an optimal restorative nap duration of approximately 65 minutes for sleep-deprived individuals. By bridging supervised representation learning and interpretable modeling, this work provides a scalable framework for depression screening and intervention-aware healthcare data mining.

Federated Learning for Global Carbon Emission Forecasting: A Hybrid Time-Series Approach with Statistical and Neural Models

Climate change, primarily driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, requires accurate forecasting tools to support effective mitigation policies and sustainable development strategies. Existing forecasting approaches typically rely on centralized data collection, which is often restricted by privacy regulations and the distributed nature of emission data across countries and industrial sectors. This paper proposes a novel federated hybrid forecasting framework that integrates ARIMA-based trend modeling, GARCH-based volatility modeling, LSTM-Attention temporal representation learning, and XGBoost prediction within a privacy-preserving federated learning environment. The proposed framework enables collaborative learning among distributed clients without requiring the exchange of raw data. Experimental evaluation across 14 clients demonstrates strong forecasting performance, achieving client R2 values between 0.50 and 0.97 with an average of 0.73, RMSE values ranging from 0.06 to 2.35 with an average of 1.21, and MAPE values between 1.5% and 11.3% with an average of 6.5%. The results indicate that the proposed framework provides an accurate, scalable, and regulation-compliant solution for collaborative carbon-emission forecasting.

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy. Urban spatio-temporal data exhibits temporal mirage: similar short-window inputs have divergent future trends, and vice versa. Existing spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) cannot effectively identify such mirages. We argue that the core reason lies in the short-window inputs that have incomplete period observation, heterogeneous global spatial correlation, and cross-period superposition causality. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Multi- Period Pattern Pre-training (MP3), a plug-and-play pre-training plugin for distinguishing temporal mirages. MP3 presents two core innovations: (1) The multi-period pattern learning is designed to learn multi-period patterns from long time series. Specifically, multi-period temporal modeling leverages edge convolution to identify different multi-period patterns. Multi-period spatial modeling uses a bottleneck project and a global memory bank to capture heterogeneous global spatial relations efficiently. Cross-period pattern interaction employs a causality-enhanced Transformer to capture dependencies across different period patterns. (2) This plugin can seamlessly integrate into existing STGNN backbones to strengthen their forecasting performance. The experiment on five STGNN baselines across five real-world datasets (including a large-scale dataset CA) verify the effectiveness, superior scalability and strong adaptability of MP3, which brings consistent and robust performance improvements across all evaluated baselines. On average, MP3 reduces the MAE 4.7% and the RMSE 5.0%. The code can be available at https://github.com/YAN-outlook/MP3.

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting

Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy. Urban spatio-temporal data exhibits temporal mirage: similar short-window inputs have divergent future trends, and vice versa. Existing spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) cannot effectively identify such mirages. We argue that the core reason lies in the short-window inputs that have incomplete period observation, heterogeneous global spatial correlation, and cross-period superposition causality. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Multi- Period Pattern Pre-training (MP3), a plug-and-play pre-training plugin for distinguishing temporal mirages. MP3 presents two core innovations: (1) The multi-period pattern learning is designed to learn multi-period patterns from long time series. Specifically, multi-period temporal modeling leverages edge convolution to identify different multi-period patterns. Multi-period spatial modeling uses a bottleneck project and a global memory bank to capture heterogeneous global spatial relations efficiently. Cross-period pattern interaction employs a causality-enhanced Transformer to capture dependencies across different period patterns. (2) This plugin can seamlessly integrate into existing STGNN backbones to strengthen their forecasting performance. The experiment on five STGNN baselines across five real-world datasets (including a large-scale dataset CA) verify the effectiveness, superior scalability and strong adaptability of MP3, which brings consistent and robust performance improvements across all evaluated baselines. On average, MP3 reduces the MAE 4.7% and the RMSE 5.0%. The code can be available at https://github.com/YAN-outlook/MP3.

PaCo-VLA: Passivity-Shielded Compliance Prior for Contact-Rich Vision-Language-Action Manipulation

Contact-rich manipulation demands both high-level semantic reasoning and the safe regulation of high-frequency contact dynamics. While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models provide unprecedented semantic generalization, their low-rate outputs lack the reliability required for direct plant authority in force-sensitive tasks. To bridge this semantic-to-control gap, we introduce PaCo-VLA, a passivity-shielded compliance prior that recasts the VLA interface. Rather than trusting VLAs with direct motor commands, PaCo-VLA treats network outputs as task-level compliance proposals: semantic bindings, task stages, and admittance schedules. A high-frequency, proposal-independent passivity shield governs these proposals through energy-tank accounting and boundary checks, preventing invalid, stale, or unverified model predictions from bypassing low-level contact physics. This decoupled architecture also enables causal evaluation, isolating semantic contributions from geometric shortcuts. Extensive simulated and real-world connector-insertion experiments demonstrate that PaCo-VLA achieves superior precision over unshielded VLA baselines, sustaining zero passivity violations even under adversarial compliance shifts. This framework establishes a provably sampled-passive runtime contract at the admittance port and provides a runtime interface for deploying foundation models in contact-rich domains.

Plan in Sandbox, Navigate in Open Worlds: Learning Physics-Grounded Abstracted Experience for Embodied Navigation

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated exceptional general reasoning capabilities. However, their performance in embodied navigation remains hindered by a scarcity of aligned open-world vision and robot control data. Despite simulators providing a cost-effective alternative for data collection, the inherent reliance on photorealistic simulations often limits the transferability of learned policies. To this end, we propose \textit{\textbf{S}andbox-\textbf{A}bstracted \textbf{G}rounded \textbf{E}xperience} (\textbf{\textit{SAGE}}), a framework that enables agents to learn within a physics-grounded semantic abstraction rather than a photorealistic simulation, mimicking the human capacity for mental simulation where plans are rehearsed in simplified physics abstractions before execution. \textit{SAGE} system operates via three synergistic phases: (1) \textit{Genesis}: constructing diverse, physics-constrained semantic environments to bootstrap experience; (2) \textit{Evolution}: distilling experiences through Reinforcement Learning (RL), utilizing a novel asymmetric adaptive clipping mechanism to stabilize updates; (3) \textit{Navigation}: bridging the abstract policy to open-world control. We demonstrate that \textit{SAGE} significantly improves planner-assisted embodied navigation, achieving a 53.21\% LLM-Match Success Rate on A-EQA (+9.7\% over baseline), while showing encouraging transfer to physical indoor robot deployment.

Unlocking air traffic flow prediction through microscopic aircraft-state modeling

Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series, despite traffic dynamics being governed by aircraft states and interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling framework that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense consistently improves predictive accuracy over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that instantaneous airspace situations provide an effective alternative to conventional time-series-based traffic forecasting paradigms.

Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion for Universal Goal-Oriented Navigation

In embodied vision, Goal-Oriented Navigation (GON) requires robots to locate a specific goal within an unexplored environment. The primary challenge of GON arises from the need to construct a Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) map to understand the environment while simultaneously localizing an unobserved goal. Existing map-based methods typically employ self-centered semantic maps, often facing challenges such as reliance on complete maps or inconsistent semantic association. To this end, we propose Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion (PLMD), which defines a novel map completion diffusion model based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). PLMD generates obstacle and semantic labels for unobserved regions through a diffusion-based completion process, thereby enabling goal localization even in partially observed environments. Moreover, it mitigates inconsistent semantic association by leveraging structural consistency between known and unknown obstacle layouts and integrating obstacle priors into the semantic denoising process. By substituting predicted labels for unobserved regions, robots can accurately localize the specified objects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PLMD \textbf{(I)} effectively expands the region of unknown maps, \textbf{(II)} integrates seamlessly into existing navigation strategies that rely on semantic maps, \textbf{(III)} achieves state-of-the-art performance on three GON tasks.

Causal Disentanglement for Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment

Existing deep network-based full-reference image quality assessment (FR-IQA) models typically work by performing pairwise comparisons of deep features from the reference and distorted images. In this paper, we approach this problem from a different perspective and propose a novel FR-IQA paradigm based on causal inference and decoupled representation learning. Unlike typical feature comparison-based FR-IQA models, our approach formulates degradation estimation as a causal disentanglement process guided by intervention on latent representations. We first decouple degradation and content representations by exploiting the content invariance between the reference and distorted images. Second, inspired by the human visual masking effect, we design a masking module to model the causal relationship between image content and degradation features, thereby extracting content-influenced degradation features from distorted images. Finally, quality scores are predicted from these degradation features using either supervised regression or label-free dimensionality reduction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves highly competitive performance on standard IQA benchmarks across fully supervised, few-label, and label-free settings. Furthermore, we evaluate the approach on diverse non-standard natural image domains with scarce data, including underwater, radiographic, medical, neutron, and screen-content images. Benefiting from its ability to perform scenario-specific training and prediction without labeled IQA data, our method exhibits superior cross-domain generalization compared to existing training-free FR-IQA models.