Federated Learning for Global Carbon Emission Forecasting: A Hybrid Time-Series Approach with Statistical and Neural Models

Climate change, primarily driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, requires accurate forecasting tools to support effective mitigation policies and sustainable development strategies. Existing forecasting approaches typically rely on centralized data collection, which is often restricted by privacy regulations and the distributed nature of emission data across countries and industrial sectors. This paper proposes a novel federated hybrid forecasting framework that integrates ARIMA-based trend modeling, GARCH-based volatility modeling, LSTM-Attention temporal representation learning, and XGBoost prediction within a privacy-preserving federated learning environment. The proposed framework enables collaborative learning among distributed clients without requiring the exchange of raw data. Experimental evaluation across 14 clients demonstrates strong forecasting performance, achieving client R2 values between 0.50 and 0.97 with an average of 0.73, RMSE values ranging from 0.06 to 2.35 with an average of 1.21, and MAPE values between 1.5% and 11.3% with an average of 6.5%. The results indicate that the proposed framework provides an accurate, scalable, and regulation-compliant solution for collaborative carbon-emission forecasting.

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy. Urban spatio-temporal data exhibits temporal mirage: similar short-window inputs have divergent future trends, and vice versa. Existing spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) cannot effectively identify such mirages. We argue that the core reason lies in the short-window inputs that have incomplete period observation, heterogeneous global spatial correlation, and cross-period superposition causality. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Multi- Period Pattern Pre-training (MP3), a plug-and-play pre-training plugin for distinguishing temporal mirages. MP3 presents two core innovations: (1) The multi-period pattern learning is designed to learn multi-period patterns from long time series. Specifically, multi-period temporal modeling leverages edge convolution to identify different multi-period patterns. Multi-period spatial modeling uses a bottleneck project and a global memory bank to capture heterogeneous global spatial relations efficiently. Cross-period pattern interaction employs a causality-enhanced Transformer to capture dependencies across different period patterns. (2) This plugin can seamlessly integrate into existing STGNN backbones to strengthen their forecasting performance. The experiment on five STGNN baselines across five real-world datasets (including a large-scale dataset CA) verify the effectiveness, superior scalability and strong adaptability of MP3, which brings consistent and robust performance improvements across all evaluated baselines. On average, MP3 reduces the MAE 4.7% and the RMSE 5.0%. The code can be available at https://github.com/YAN-outlook/MP3.

MP3: Multi-Period Pattern Pre-training forSpatio-Temporal Forecasting

Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy. Urban spatio-temporal data exhibits temporal mirage: similar short-window inputs have divergent future trends, and vice versa. Existing spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) cannot effectively identify such mirages. We argue that the core reason lies in the short-window inputs that have incomplete period observation, heterogeneous global spatial correlation, and cross-period superposition causality. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Multi- Period Pattern Pre-training (MP3), a plug-and-play pre-training plugin for distinguishing temporal mirages. MP3 presents two core innovations: (1) The multi-period pattern learning is designed to learn multi-period patterns from long time series. Specifically, multi-period temporal modeling leverages edge convolution to identify different multi-period patterns. Multi-period spatial modeling uses a bottleneck project and a global memory bank to capture heterogeneous global spatial relations efficiently. Cross-period pattern interaction employs a causality-enhanced Transformer to capture dependencies across different period patterns. (2) This plugin can seamlessly integrate into existing STGNN backbones to strengthen their forecasting performance. The experiment on five STGNN baselines across five real-world datasets (including a large-scale dataset CA) verify the effectiveness, superior scalability and strong adaptability of MP3, which brings consistent and robust performance improvements across all evaluated baselines. On average, MP3 reduces the MAE 4.7% and the RMSE 5.0%. The code can be available at https://github.com/YAN-outlook/MP3.

PaCo-VLA: Passivity-Shielded Compliance Prior for Contact-Rich Vision-Language-Action Manipulation

Contact-rich manipulation demands both high-level semantic reasoning and the safe regulation of high-frequency contact dynamics. While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models provide unprecedented semantic generalization, their low-rate outputs lack the reliability required for direct plant authority in force-sensitive tasks. To bridge this semantic-to-control gap, we introduce PaCo-VLA, a passivity-shielded compliance prior that recasts the VLA interface. Rather than trusting VLAs with direct motor commands, PaCo-VLA treats network outputs as task-level compliance proposals: semantic bindings, task stages, and admittance schedules. A high-frequency, proposal-independent passivity shield governs these proposals through energy-tank accounting and boundary checks, preventing invalid, stale, or unverified model predictions from bypassing low-level contact physics. This decoupled architecture also enables causal evaluation, isolating semantic contributions from geometric shortcuts. Extensive simulated and real-world connector-insertion experiments demonstrate that PaCo-VLA achieves superior precision over unshielded VLA baselines, sustaining zero passivity violations even under adversarial compliance shifts. This framework establishes a provably sampled-passive runtime contract at the admittance port and provides a runtime interface for deploying foundation models in contact-rich domains.

Unlocking air traffic flow prediction through microscopic aircraft-state modeling

Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series, despite traffic dynamics being governed by aircraft states and interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling framework that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense consistently improves predictive accuracy over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that instantaneous airspace situations provide an effective alternative to conventional time-series-based traffic forecasting paradigms.

Plan in Sandbox, Navigate in Open Worlds: Learning Physics-Grounded Abstracted Experience for Embodied Navigation

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated exceptional general reasoning capabilities. However, their performance in embodied navigation remains hindered by a scarcity of aligned open-world vision and robot control data. Despite simulators providing a cost-effective alternative for data collection, the inherent reliance on photorealistic simulations often limits the transferability of learned policies. To this end, we propose \textit{\textbf{S}andbox-\textbf{A}bstracted \textbf{G}rounded \textbf{E}xperience} (\textbf{\textit{SAGE}}), a framework that enables agents to learn within a physics-grounded semantic abstraction rather than a photorealistic simulation, mimicking the human capacity for mental simulation where plans are rehearsed in simplified physics abstractions before execution. \textit{SAGE} system operates via three synergistic phases: (1) \textit{Genesis}: constructing diverse, physics-constrained semantic environments to bootstrap experience; (2) \textit{Evolution}: distilling experiences through Reinforcement Learning (RL), utilizing a novel asymmetric adaptive clipping mechanism to stabilize updates; (3) \textit{Navigation}: bridging the abstract policy to open-world control. We demonstrate that \textit{SAGE} significantly improves planner-assisted embodied navigation, achieving a 53.21\% LLM-Match Success Rate on A-EQA (+9.7\% over baseline), while showing encouraging transfer to physical indoor robot deployment.

Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion for Universal Goal-Oriented Navigation

In embodied vision, Goal-Oriented Navigation (GON) requires robots to locate a specific goal within an unexplored environment. The primary challenge of GON arises from the need to construct a Bird's-Eye-View (BEV) map to understand the environment while simultaneously localizing an unobserved goal. Existing map-based methods typically employ self-centered semantic maps, often facing challenges such as reliance on complete maps or inconsistent semantic association. To this end, we propose Plug-and-Play Label Map Diffusion (PLMD), which defines a novel map completion diffusion model based on Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM). PLMD generates obstacle and semantic labels for unobserved regions through a diffusion-based completion process, thereby enabling goal localization even in partially observed environments. Moreover, it mitigates inconsistent semantic association by leveraging structural consistency between known and unknown obstacle layouts and integrating obstacle priors into the semantic denoising process. By substituting predicted labels for unobserved regions, robots can accurately localize the specified objects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PLMD \textbf{(I)} effectively expands the region of unknown maps, \textbf{(II)} integrates seamlessly into existing navigation strategies that rely on semantic maps, \textbf{(III)} achieves state-of-the-art performance on three GON tasks.

Causal Disentanglement for Full-Reference Image Quality Assessment

Existing deep network-based full-reference image quality assessment (FR-IQA) models typically work by performing pairwise comparisons of deep features from the reference and distorted images. In this paper, we approach this problem from a different perspective and propose a novel FR-IQA paradigm based on causal inference and decoupled representation learning. Unlike typical feature comparison-based FR-IQA models, our approach formulates degradation estimation as a causal disentanglement process guided by intervention on latent representations. We first decouple degradation and content representations by exploiting the content invariance between the reference and distorted images. Second, inspired by the human visual masking effect, we design a masking module to model the causal relationship between image content and degradation features, thereby extracting content-influenced degradation features from distorted images. Finally, quality scores are predicted from these degradation features using either supervised regression or label-free dimensionality reduction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves highly competitive performance on standard IQA benchmarks across fully supervised, few-label, and label-free settings. Furthermore, we evaluate the approach on diverse non-standard natural image domains with scarce data, including underwater, radiographic, medical, neutron, and screen-content images. Benefiting from its ability to perform scenario-specific training and prediction without labeled IQA data, our method exhibits superior cross-domain generalization compared to existing training-free FR-IQA models.

Towards Situation-aware State Modeling for Air Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate air traffic prediction in the terminal airspace (TA) is pivotal for proactive air traffic management (ATM). However, existing data-driven approaches predominantly rely on time series-based forecasting paradigms, which inherently overlook critical aircraft state information, such as real-time kinematics and proximity to airspace boundaries. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{AeroSense}, a direct state-to-flow modeling framework for air traffic prediction. Unlike classical time series-based methods that first aggregate aircraft trajectories into macroscopic flow sequences before modeling, AeroSense explicitly represents the real-time airspace situation as \textit{a dynamic set of aircraft states}, enabling the direct processing of a variable number of aircraft instead of time series as inputs. Specifically, we introduce a situation-aware state representation that enables AeroSense to sense the instantaneous terminal airspace situation directly from microscopic aircraft states. Furthermore, we design a model architecture that incorporates masked self-attention to capture inter-aircraft interactions, together with two decoupled prediction heads to model heterogeneous flow dynamics across two key functional areas of the TA. Extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world airport dataset demonstrate that AeroSense consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, validating that direct modeling of microscopic aircraft states yields substantially higher predictive fidelity than time series-based baselines. Moreover, the proposed framework exhibits superior robustness during peak traffic periods, achieves Pareto-optimal performance under dayparting multi-object evaluation, and provides meaningful interpretability through attention-based visualizations.

Self-Distilled Reinforcement Learning for Co-Evolving Agentic Recommender Systems

Large language model-empowered agentic recommender systems (ARS) reformulate recommendation as a multi-turn interaction between a recommender agent and a user agent, enabling iterative preference elicitation and refinement beyond conventional one-shot prediction. However, existing ARS are mainly optimized in a Reflexion-style paradigm, where past interaction trajectories are stored as textual memory and retrieved as prompt context for later reasoning. Although this design allows agents to recall prior feedback and observations, the accumulated experience remains external to model parameters, leaving agents reliant on generic reasoning rather than progressively acquiring recommendation-specific decision-making ability through learning. Reinforcement learning (RL) therefore provides a natural way to internalize such interaction experience into parameters. Yet existing RL methods for ARS still suffer from two key limitations. First, they fail to capture the interactive nature of ARS, in which the recommender agent and the user agent continuously influence each other and can naturally generate endogenous supervision through interaction feedback. Second, they reduce a rich multi-turn interaction process to final outcomes, overlooking the dense supervision embedded throughout the trajectory. To this end, we propose CoARS, a self-distilled reinforcement learning framework for co-evolving agentic recommender systems. CoARS introduces two complementary learning schemes: interaction reward, which derives coupled task-level supervision for the recommender agent and the user agent from the same interaction trajectory, and self-distilled credit assignment, which converts historical trajectories into token-level credit signals under teacher-student conditioning. Experiments on multiple datasets show that CoARS outperforms representative ARS baselines in recommendation performance and user alignment.