QuiZSF: An efficient data-model interaction framework for zero-shot time-series forecasting

Time series forecasting has become increasingly important to empower diverse applications with streaming data. Zero-shot time-series forecasting (ZSF), particularly valuable in data-scarce scenarios, such as domain transfer or forecasting under extreme conditions, is difficult for traditional models to deal with. While time series pre-trained models (TSPMs) have demonstrated strong performance in ZSF, they often lack mechanisms to dynamically incorporate external knowledge. Fortunately, emerging retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) offers a promising path for injecting such knowledge on demand, yet they are rarely integrated with TSPMs. To leverage the strengths of both worlds, we introduce RAG into TSPMs to enhance zero-shot time series forecasting. In this paper, we propose QuiZSF (Quick Zero-Shot Time Series Forecaster), a lightweight and modular framework that couples efficient retrieval with representation learning and model adaptation for ZSF. Specifically, we construct a hierarchical tree-structured ChronoRAG Base (CRB) for scalable time-series storage and domain-aware retrieval, introduce a Multi-grained Series Interaction Learner (MSIL) to extract fine- and coarse-grained relational features, and develop a dual-branch Model Cooperation Coherer (MCC) that aligns retrieved knowledge with two kinds of TSPMs: Non-LLM based and LLM based. Compared with contemporary baselines, QuiZSF, with Non-LLM based and LLM based TSPMs as base model, respectively, ranks Top1 in 75% and 87.5% of prediction settings, while maintaining high efficiency in memory and inference time.

On the $O(\frac{\sqrt{d}}{K^{1/4}})$ Convergence Rate of AdamW Measured by $\ell_1$ Norm

As the default optimizer for training large language models, AdamW has achieved remarkable success in deep learning. However, its convergence behavior is not theoretically well-understood. This paper establishes the convergence rate $\frac{1}{K}\sum_{k=1}^KE\left[\|\nabla f(x^k)\|_1\right]\leq O(\frac{\sqrt{d}C}{K^{1/4}})$ for AdamW measured by $\ell_1$ norm, where $K$ represents the iteration number, $d$ denotes the model dimension, and $C$ matches the constant in the optimal convergence rate of SGD. Theoretically, we have $E\left[\|\nabla f(x)\|_1\right]\geq\sqrt{\frac{2d}{\pi}}E\left[\|\nabla f(x)\|_2\right]$ when each element of $\nabla f(x)$ is generated from Gaussian distribution $\mathcal N(0,1)$. Empirically, our experimental results on real-world deep learning tasks reveal $\|\nabla f(x)\|_1=\varTheta(\sqrt{d})\|\nabla f(x)\|_2$. Both support that our convergence rate can be considered to be analogous to the optimal $\frac{1}{K}\sum_{k=1}^KE\left[\|\nabla f(x^k)\|_2\right]\leq O(\frac{C}{K^{1/4}})$ convergence rate of SGD.

CHASe: Client Heterogeneity-Aware Data Selection for Effective Federated Active Learning

Active learning (AL) reduces human annotation costs for machine learning systems by strategically selecting the most informative unlabeled data for annotation, but performing it individually may still be insufficient due to restricted data diversity and annotation budget. Federated Active Learning (FAL) addresses this by facilitating collaborative data selection and model training, while preserving the confidentiality of raw data samples. Yet, existing FAL methods fail to account for the heterogeneity of data distribution across clients and the associated fluctuations in global and local model parameters, adversely affecting model accuracy. To overcome these challenges, we propose CHASe (Client Heterogeneity-Aware Data Selection), specifically designed for FAL. CHASe focuses on identifying those unlabeled samples with high epistemic variations (EVs), which notably oscillate around the decision boundaries during training. To achieve both effectiveness and efficiency, \model{} encompasses techniques for 1) tracking EVs by analyzing inference inconsistencies across training epochs, 2) calibrating decision boundaries of inaccurate models with a new alignment loss, and 3) enhancing data selection efficiency via a data freeze and awaken mechanism with subset sampling. Experiments show that CHASe surpasses various established baselines in terms of effectiveness and efficiency, validated across diverse datasets, model complexities, and heterogeneous federation settings.

HMI: Hierarchical Knowledge Management for Efficient Multi-Tenant Inference in Pretrained Language Models

The significant computational demands of pretrained language models (PLMs), which often require dedicated hardware, present a substantial challenge in serving them efficiently, especially in multi-tenant environments. To address this, we introduce HMI, a Hierarchical knowledge management-based Multi-tenant Inference system, designed to manage tenants with distinct PLMs resource-efficiently. Our approach is three-fold: Firstly, we categorize PLM knowledge into general, domain-specific, and task-specific. Leveraging insights on knowledge acquisition across different model layers, we construct hierarchical PLMs (hPLMs) by extracting and storing knowledge at different levels, significantly reducing GPU memory usage per tenant. Secondly, we establish hierarchical knowledge management for hPLMs generated by various tenants in HMI. We manage domain-specific knowledge with acceptable storage increases by constructing and updating domain-specific knowledge trees based on frequency. We manage task-specific knowledge within limited GPU memory through parameter swapping. Finally, we propose system optimizations to enhance resource utilization and inference throughput. These include fine-grained pipelining via hierarchical knowledge prefetching to overlap CPU and I/O operations with GPU computations, and optimizing parallel implementations with batched matrix multiplications. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed HMI can efficiently serve up to 10,000 hPLMs (hBERTs and hGPTs) on a single GPU, with only a negligible compromise in accuracy.

NLCTables: A Dataset for Marrying Natural Language Conditions with Table Discovery

With the growing abundance of repositories containing tabular data, discovering relevant tables for in-depth analysis remains a challenging task. Existing table discovery methods primarily retrieve desired tables based on a query table or several vague keywords, leaving users to manually filter large result sets. To address this limitation, we propose a new task: NL-conditional table discovery (nlcTD), where users combine a query table with natural language (NL) requirements to refine search results. To advance research in this area, we present nlcTables, a comprehensive benchmark dataset comprising 627 diverse queries spanning NL-only, union, join, and fuzzy conditions, 22,080 candidate tables, and 21,200 relevance annotations. Our evaluation of six state-of-the-art table discovery methods on nlcTables reveals substantial performance gaps, highlighting the need for advanced techniques to tackle this challenging nlcTD scenario. The dataset, construction framework, and baseline implementations are publicly available at https://github.com/SuDIS-ZJU/nlcTables to foster future research.

AlayaDB: The Data Foundation for Efficient and Effective Long-context LLM Inference

AlayaDB is a cutting-edge vector database system natively architected for efficient and effective long-context inference for Large Language Models (LLMs) at AlayaDB AI. Specifically, it decouples the KV cache and attention computation from the LLM inference systems, and encapsulates them into a novel vector database system. For the Model as a Service providers (MaaS), AlayaDB consumes fewer hardware resources and offers higher generation quality for various workloads with different kinds of Service Level Objectives (SLOs), when comparing with the existing alternative solutions (e.g., KV cache disaggregation, retrieval-based sparse attention). The crux of AlayaDB is that it abstracts the attention computation and cache management for LLM inference into a query processing procedure, and optimizes the performance via a native query optimizer. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness of AlayaDB via (i) three use cases from our industry partners, and (ii) extensive experimental results on LLM inference benchmarks.

Beyond Fixed Variables: Expanding-variate Time Series Forecasting via Flat Scheme and Spatio-temporal Focal Learning

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) has long been a key research focus. Traditionally, these studies assume a fixed number of variables, but in real-world applications, Cyber-Physical Systems often expand as new sensors are deployed, increasing variables in MTSF. In light of this, we introduce a novel task, Expanding-variate Time Series Forecasting (EVTSF). This task presents unique challenges, specifically (1) handling inconsistent data shapes caused by adding new variables, and (2) addressing imbalanced spatio-temporal learning, where expanding variables have limited observed data due to the necessity for timely operation. To address these challenges, we propose STEV, a flexible spatio-temporal forecasting framework. STEV includes a new Flat Scheme to tackle the inconsistent data shape issue, which extends the graph-based spatio-temporal modeling architecture into 1D space by flattening the 2D samples along the variable dimension, making the model variable-scale-agnostic while still preserving dynamic spatial correlations through a holistic graph. We introduce a novel Spatio-temporal Focal Learning strategy that incorporates a negative filter to resolve potential conflicts between contrastive learning and graph representation, and a focal contrastive loss as its core to guide the framework to focus on optimizing the expanding variables. We benchmark EVTSF performance using three real-world datasets and compare it against three potential solutions employing SOTA MTSF models tailored for EVSTF. Experimental results show that STEV significantly outperforms its competitors, particularly on expanding variables. Notably, STEV, with only 5% of observations from the expanding period, is on par with SOTA MTSF models trained with complete observations. Further exploration of various expanding strategies underscores the generalizability of STEV in real-world applications.

Not All Data are Good Labels: On the Self-supervised Labeling for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is a crucial task in various domains, yet existing TSF models rely heavily on high-quality data and insufficiently exploit all available data. This paper explores a novel self-supervised approach to re-label time series datasets by inherently constructing candidate datasets. During the optimization of a simple reconstruction network, intermediates are used as pseudo labels in a self-supervised paradigm, improving generalization for any predictor. We introduce the Self-Correction with Adaptive Mask (SCAM), which discards overfitted components and selectively replaces them with pseudo labels generated from reconstructions. Additionally, we incorporate Spectral Norm Regularization (SNR) to further suppress overfitting from a loss landscape perspective. Our experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that SCAM consistently improves the performance of various backbone models. This work offers a new perspective on constructing datasets and enhancing the generalization of TSF models through self-supervised learning.

Train Small, Infer Large: Memory-Efficient LoRA Training for Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly advanced natural language processing with exceptional task generalization capabilities. Low-Rank Adaption (LoRA) offers a cost-effective fine-tuning solution, freezing the original model parameters and training only lightweight, low-rank adapter matrices. However, the memory footprint of LoRA is largely dominated by the original model parameters. To mitigate this, we propose LoRAM, a memory-efficient LoRA training scheme founded on the intuition that many neurons in over-parameterized LLMs have low training utility but are essential for inference. LoRAM presents a unique twist: it trains on a pruned (small) model to obtain pruned low-rank matrices, which are then recovered and utilized with the original (large) model for inference. Additionally, minimal-cost continual pre-training, performed by the model publishers in advance, aligns the knowledge discrepancy between pruned and original models. Our extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of LoRAM across various pruning strategies and downstream tasks. For a model with 70 billion parameters, LoRAM enables training on a GPU with only 20G HBM, replacing an A100-80G GPU for LoRA training and 15 GPUs for full fine-tuning. Specifically, QLoRAM implemented by structured pruning combined with 4-bit quantization, for LLaMA-3.1-70B (LLaMA-2-70B), reduces the parameter storage cost that dominates the memory usage in low-rank matrix training by 15.81$\times$ (16.95$\times$), while achieving dominant performance gains over both the original LLaMA-3.1-70B (LLaMA-2-70B) and LoRA-trained LLaMA-3.1-8B (LLaMA-2-13B).

Preventing the Popular Item Embedding Based Attack in Federated Recommendations

Privacy concerns have led to the rise of federated recommender systems (FRS), which can create personalized models across distributed clients. However, FRS is vulnerable to poisoning attacks, where malicious users manipulate gradients to promote their target items intentionally. Existing attacks against FRS have limitations, as they depend on specific models and prior knowledge, restricting their real-world applicability. In our exploration of practical FRS vulnerabilities, we devise a model-agnostic and prior-knowledge-free attack, named PIECK (Popular Item Embedding based Attack). The core module of PIECK is popular item mining, which leverages embedding changes during FRS training to effectively identify the popular items. Built upon the core module, PIECK branches into two diverse solutions: The PIECKIPE solution employs an item popularity enhancement module, which aligns the embeddings of targeted items with the mined popular items to increase item exposure. The PIECKUEA further enhances the robustness of the attack by using a user embedding approximation module, which approximates private user embeddings using mined popular items. Upon identifying PIECK, we evaluate existing federated defense methods and find them ineffective against PIECK, as poisonous gradients inevitably overwhelm the cold target items. We then propose a novel defense method by introducing two regularization terms during user training, which constrain item popularity enhancement and user embedding approximation while preserving FRS performance. We evaluate PIECK and its defense across two base models, three real datasets, four top-tier attacks, and six general defense methods, affirming the efficacy of both PIECK and its defense.