Disentangled Representation for Causal Mediation Analysis

Estimating direct and indirect causal effects from observational data is crucial to understanding the causal mechanisms and predicting the behaviour under different interventions. Causal mediation analysis is a method that is often used to reveal direct and indirect effects. Deep learning shows promise in mediation analysis, but the current methods only assume latent confounders that affect treatment, mediator and outcome simultaneously, and fail to identify different types of latent confounders (e.g., confounders that only affect the mediator or outcome). Furthermore, current methods are based on the sequential ignorability assumption, which is not feasible for dealing with multiple types of latent confounders. This work aims to circumvent the sequential ignorability assumption and applies the piecemeal deconfounding assumption as an alternative. We propose the Disentangled Mediation Analysis Variational AutoEncoder (DMAVAE), which disentangles the representations of latent confounders into three types to accurately estimate the natural direct effect, natural indirect effect and total effect. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods and has strong generalisation ability. We further apply the method to a real-world dataset to show its potential application.

New $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, numerically stable higher-order influence function estimators

Higher-Order Influence Functions (HOIFs) provide a unified theory for constructing rate-optimal estimators for a large class of low-dimensional (smooth) statistical functionals/parameters (and sometimes even infinite-dimensional functions) that arise in substantive fields including epidemiology, economics, and the social sciences. Since the introduction of HOIFs by Robins et al. (2008), they have been viewed mostly as a theoretical benchmark rather than a useful tool for statistical practice. Works aimed to flip the script are scant, but a few recent papers Liu et al. (2017, 2021b) make some partial progress. In this paper, we take a fresh attempt at achieving this goal by constructing new, numerically stable HOIF estimators (or sHOIF estimators for short with ``s'' standing for ``stable'') with provable statistical, numerical, and computational guarantees. This new class of sHOIF estimators (up to the 2nd order) was foreshadowed in synthetic experiments conducted by Liu et al. (2020a).

Causal Inference with Conditional Instruments using Deep Generative Models

The instrumental variable (IV) approach is a widely used way to estimate the causal effects of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data with latent confounders. A standard IV is expected to be related to the treatment variable and independent of all other variables in the system. However, it is challenging to search for a standard IV from data directly due to the strict conditions. The conditional IV (CIV) method has been proposed to allow a variable to be an instrument conditioning on a set of variables, allowing a wider choice of possible IVs and enabling broader practical applications of the IV approach. Nevertheless, there is not a data-driven method to discover a CIV and its conditioning set directly from data. To fill this gap, in this paper, we propose to learn the representations of the information of a CIV and its conditioning set from data with latent confounders for average causal effect estimation. By taking advantage of deep generative models, we develop a novel data-driven approach for simultaneously learning the representation of a CIV from measured variables and generating the representation of its conditioning set given measured variables. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that our method outperforms the existing IV methods.

DeepMed: Semiparametric Causal Mediation Analysis with Debiased Deep Learning

Causal mediation analysis can unpack the black box of causality and is therefore a powerful tool for disentangling causal pathways in biomedical and social sciences, and also for evaluating machine learning fairness. To reduce bias for estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis, we propose a new method called DeepMed that uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to cross-fit the infinite-dimensional nuisance functions in the efficient influence functions. We obtain novel theoretical results that our DeepMed method (1) can achieve semiparametric efficiency bound without imposing sparsity constraints on the DNN architecture and (2) can adapt to certain low dimensional structures of the nuisance functions, significantly advancing the existing literature on DNN-based semiparametric causal inference. Extensive synthetic experiments are conducted to support our findings and also expose the gap between theory and practice. As a proof of concept, we apply DeepMed to analyze two real datasets on machine learning fairness and reach conclusions consistent with previous findings.

Honor of Kings Arena: an Environment for Generalization in Competitive Reinforcement Learning

This paper introduces Honor of Kings Arena, a reinforcement learning (RL) environment based on Honor of Kings, one of the world's most popular games at present. Compared to other environments studied in most previous work, ours presents new generalization challenges for competitive reinforcement learning. It is a multi-agent problem with one agent competing against its opponent; and it requires the generalization ability as it has diverse targets to control and diverse opponents to compete with. We describe the observation, action, and reward specifications for the Honor of Kings domain and provide an open-source Python-based interface for communicating with the game engine. We provide twenty target heroes with a variety of tasks in Honor of Kings Arena and present initial baseline results for RL-based methods with feasible computing resources. Finally, we showcase the generalization challenges imposed by Honor of Kings Arena and possible remedies to the challenges. All of the software, including the environment-class, are publicly available at https://github.com/tencent-ailab/hok_env . The documentation is available at https://aiarena.tencent.com/hok/doc/ .

Requirements Engineering for Machine Learning: A Review and Reflection

Today, many industrial processes are undergoing digital transformation, which often requires the integration of well-understood domain models and state-of-the-art machine learning technology in business processes. However, requirements elicitation and design decision making about when, where and how to embed various domain models and end-to-end machine learning techniques properly into a given business workflow requires further exploration. This paper aims to provide an overview of the requirements engineering process for machine learning applications in terms of cross domain collaborations. We first review the literature on requirements engineering for machine learning, and then go through the collaborative requirements analysis process step-by-step. An example case of industrial data-driven intelligence applications is also discussed in relation to the aforementioned steps.

Low-Light Video Enhancement with Synthetic Event Guidance

Low-light video enhancement (LLVE) is an important yet challenging task with many applications such as photographing and autonomous driving. Unlike single image low-light enhancement, most LLVE methods utilize temporal information from adjacent frames to restore the color and remove the noise of the target frame. However, these algorithms, based on the framework of multi-frame alignment and enhancement, may produce multi-frame fusion artifacts when encountering extreme low light or fast motion. In this paper, inspired by the low latency and high dynamic range of events, we use synthetic events from multiple frames to guide the enhancement and restoration of low-light videos. Our method contains three stages: 1) event synthesis and enhancement, 2) event and image fusion, and 3) low-light enhancement. In this framework, we design two novel modules (event-image fusion transform and event-guided dual branch) for the second and third stages, respectively. Extensive experiments show that our method outperforms existing low-light video or single image enhancement approaches on both synthetic and real LLVE datasets.

Data-Driven Causal Effect Estimation Based on Graphical Causal Modelling: A Survey

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective responses or interventions. A great deal of research has been conducted on this challenging problem from different angles. For causal effect estimation in data, assumptions such as Markov property, faithfulness and causal sufficiency are always made. Under the assumptions, full knowledge such as, a set of covariates or an underlying causal graph, is still required. A practical challenge is that in many applications, no such full knowledge or only some partial knowledge is available. In recent years, research has emerged to use a search strategy based on graphical causal modelling to discover useful knowledge from data for causal effect estimation, with some mild assumptions, and has shown promose in tackling the practical challenge. In this survey, we review the methods and focus on the challenges the data-driven methods face. We discuss the assumptions, strengths and limitations of the data-driven methods. We hope this review will motivate more researchers to design better data-driven methods based on graphical causal modelling for the challenging problem of causal effect estimation.

Disentangled Representation with Causal Constraints for Counterfactual Fairness

Much research has been devoted to the problem of learning fair representations; however, they do not explicitly the relationship between latent representations. In many real-world applications, there may be causal relationships between latent representations. Furthermore, most fair representation learning methods focus on group-level fairness and are based on correlations, ignoring the causal relationships underlying the data. In this work, we theoretically demonstrate that using the structured representations enable downstream predictive models to achieve counterfactual fairness, and then we propose the Counterfactual Fairness Variational AutoEncoder (CF-VAE) to obtain structured representations with respect to domain knowledge. The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves better fairness and accuracy performance than the benchmark fairness methods.