Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement of Foundation Models: A Case Study in Drought Forecasting

Regional climate prediction presents unique challenges for time series foundation models, which typically process temporal patterns through single-pass inference. Expert climatologists, in contrast, employ multi-scale temporal analysis and iterative refinement based on systematic error diagnosis. We present RGMR (Residual-Guided Multi-Resolution Refinement), an inference-time framework that adapts pre-trained foundation models to perform structured coarse-to-fine refinement for climate forecasting without updating backbone parameters. Applied to drought forecasting using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), RGMR is architecture-agnostic across the three TSFM backbones evaluated per site (TimesFM, TimeGPT, TabPFN) and consistently lowers test-set MSE on three South Australian sites and three additional regions outside South Australia. Applied to TimesFM, the wrapper reduces one-month-ahead SPEI MSE by up to 18.9\% across the three South Australian sites (mean reduction $\approx$18.7\%). Overall, RGMR provides a practical route for deploying frozen TSFMs in regional climate forecasting workflows.

Lightweight Wrappers for Adapting Time Series Foundation Models to Regional Drought Forecasting

Large \emph{Time Series Foundation Models} (TSFMs) demonstrate strong zero-shot forecasting capabilities across diverse domains. However, their application to regional climate forecasting faces practical challenges: model weights are often proprietary, local training records are limited, and computational budgets are constrained, making traditional fine-tuning approaches infeasible. To address these constraints, we introduce a lightweight, black-box adaptation framework (requiring no access to backbone parameters and no backbone fine-tuning) that enhances frozen TSFMs at inference time through two plug-and-play wrappers: \textbf{SMR\textsuperscript{2}} (Stationarity aware multi-resolution Residual), which decomposes the input into multi-resolution temporal views, learns stride specific residual corrections that capture regional dynamics, then adaptively ensembles them into a single forecast, and \textbf{MBB} (Moving Block Bootstrap), which preserves temporal dependencies through block resampling and ensembles over temporally coherent residual perturbations to stabilize the point forecast. Both wrappers instantiate the same bagging style principle: they build diverse views of the input or its residuals, forecast each with the same frozen backbone, and aggregate, so all adaptation comes from inference time ensembling rather than any weight update. Evaluated on one month ahead Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) prediction across multiple sites in South Australia, our framework consistently improves forecasting performance across several backbone models, demonstrating up to 26\% mean squared error (MSE) reduction over the corresponding frozen backbone while enabling practical deployment in resource constrained regional forecasting systems.

uLEAD-TabPFN: Uncertainty-aware Dependency-based Anomaly Detection with TabPFN

Anomaly detection in tabular data is challenging due to high dimensionality, complex feature dependencies, and heterogeneous noise. Many existing methods rely on proximity-based cues and may miss anomalies caused by violations of complex feature dependencies. Dependency-based anomaly detection provides a principled alternative by identifying anomalies as violations of dependencies among features. However, existing methods often struggle to model such dependencies robustly and to scale to high-dimensional data with complex dependency structures. To address these challenges, we propose uLEAD-TabPFN, a dependency-based anomaly detection framework built on Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). uLEAD-TabPFN identifies anomalies as violations of conditional dependencies in a learned latent space, leveraging frozen PFNs for dependency estimation. Combined with uncertainty-aware scoring, the proposed framework enables robust and scalable anomaly detection. Experiments on 57 tabular datasets from ADBench show that uLEAD-TabPFN achieves particularly strong performance in medium- and high-dimensional settings, where it attains the top average rank. On high-dimensional datasets, uLEAD-TabPFN improves the average ROC-AUC by nearly 20\% over the average baseline and by approximately 2.8\% over the best-performing baseline, while maintaining overall superior performance compared to state-of-the-art methods. Further analysis shows that uLEAD-TabPFN provides complementary anomaly detection capability, achieving strong performance on datasets where many existing methods struggle.

Disentangled Instrumental Variables for Causal Inference with Networked Observational Data

Instrumental variables (IVs) are crucial for addressing unobservable confounders, yet their stringent exogeneity assumptions pose significant challenges in networked data. Existing methods typically rely on modelling neighbour information when recovering IVs, thereby inevitably mixing shared environment-induced endogenous correlations and individual-specific exogenous variation, leading the resulting IVs to inherit dependence on unobserved confounders and to violate exogeneity. To overcome this challenge, we propose $\underline{Dis}$entangled $\underline{I}$nstrumental $\underline{V}$ariables (DisIV) framework, a novel method for causal inference based on networked observational data with latent confounders. DisIV exploits network homogeneity as an inductive bias and employs a structural disentanglement mechanism to extract individual-specific components that serve as latent IVs. The causal validity of the extracted IVs is constrained through explicit orthogonality and exclusion conditions. Extensive semi-synthetic experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that DisIV consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in causal effect estimation under network-induced confounding.

A Novel Generative Model with Causality Constraint for Mitigating Biases in Recommender Systems

Accurately predicting counterfactual user feedback is essential for building effective recommender systems. However, latent confounding bias can obscure the true causal relationship between user feedback and item exposure, ultimately degrading recommendation performance. Existing causal debiasing approaches often rely on strong assumptions-such as the availability of instrumental variables (IVs) or strong correlations between latent confounders and proxy variables-that are rarely satisfied in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, we propose a novel generative framework called Latent Causality Constraints for Debiasing representation learning in Recommender Systems (LCDR). Specifically, LCDR leverages an identifiable Variational Autoencoder (iVAE) as a causal constraint to align the latent representations learned by a standard Variational Autoencoder (VAE) through a unified loss function. This alignment allows the model to leverage even weak or noisy proxy variables to recover latent confounders effectively. The resulting representations are then used to improve recommendation performance. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that LCDR consistently outperforms existing methods in both mitigating bias and improving recommendation accuracy.

Counterfactual Samples Constructing and Training for Commonsense Statements Estimation

Plausibility Estimation (PE) plays a crucial role for enabling language models to objectively comprehend the real world. While large language models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in PE tasks but sometimes produce trivial commonsense errors due to the complexity of commonsense knowledge. They lack two key traits of an ideal PE model: a) Language-explainable: relying on critical word segments for decisions, and b) Commonsense-sensitive: detecting subtle linguistic variations in commonsense. To address these issues, we propose a novel model-agnostic method, referred to as Commonsense Counterfactual Samples Generating (CCSG). By training PE models with CCSG, we encourage them to focus on critical words, thereby enhancing both their language-explainable and commonsense-sensitive capabilities. Specifically, CCSG generates counterfactual samples by strategically replacing key words and introducing low-level dropout within sentences. These counterfactual samples are then incorporated into a sentence-level contrastive training framework to further enhance the model's learning process. Experimental results across nine diverse datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of CCSG in addressing commonsense reasoning challenges, with our CCSG method showing 3.07% improvement against the SOTA methods.

Leaning Time-Varying Instruments for Identifying Causal Effects in Time-Series Data

Querying causal effects from time-series data is important across various fields, including healthcare, economics, climate science, and epidemiology. However, this task becomes complex in the existence of time-varying latent confounders, which affect both treatment and outcome variables over time and can introduce bias in causal effect estimation. Traditional instrumental variable (IV) methods are limited in addressing such complexities due to the need for predefined IVs or strong assumptions that do not hold in dynamic settings. To tackle these issues, we develop a novel Time-varying Conditional Instrumental Variables (CIV) for Debiasing causal effect estimation, referred to as TDCIV. TDCIV leverages Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Variational Autoencoder (VAE) models to disentangle and learn the representations of time-varying CIV and its conditioning set from proxy variables without prior knowledge. Under the assumptions of the Markov property and availability of proxy variables, we theoretically establish the validity of these learned representations for addressing the biases from time-varying latent confounders, thus enabling accurate causal effect estimation. Our proposed TDCIV is the first to effectively learn time-varying CIV and its associated conditioning set without relying on domain-specific knowledge.

Linking Model Intervention to Causal Interpretation in Model Explanation

Intervention intuition is often used in model explanation where the intervention effect of a feature on the outcome is quantified by the difference of a model prediction when the feature value is changed from the current value to the baseline value. Such a model intervention effect of a feature is inherently association. In this paper, we will study the conditions when an intuitive model intervention effect has a causal interpretation, i.e., when it indicates whether a feature is a direct cause of the outcome. This work links the model intervention effect to the causal interpretation of a model. Such an interpretation capability is important since it indicates whether a machine learning model is trustworthy to domain experts. The conditions also reveal the limitations of using a model intervention effect for causal interpretation in an environment with unobserved features. Experiments on semi-synthetic datasets have been conducted to validate theorems and show the potential for using the model intervention effect for model interpretation.

Multi-Cause Deconfounding for Recommender Systems with Latent Confounders

In recommender systems, various latent confounding factors (e.g., user social environment and item public attractiveness) can affect user behavior, item exposure, and feedback in distinct ways. These factors may directly or indirectly impact user feedback and are often shared across items or users, making them multi-cause latent confounders. However, existing methods typically fail to account for latent confounders between users and their feedback, as well as those between items and user feedback simultaneously. To address the problem of multi-cause latent confounders, we propose a multi-cause deconfounding method for recommender systems with latent confounders (MCDCF). MCDCF leverages multi-cause causal effect estimation to learn substitutes for latent confounders associated with both users and items, using user behaviour data. Specifically, MCDCF treats the multiple items that users interact with and the multiple users that interact with items as treatment variables, enabling it to learn substitutes for the latent confounders that influence the estimation of causality between users and their feedback, as well as between items and user feedback. Additionally, we theoretically demonstrate the soundness of our MCDCF method. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that our MCDCF method effectively recovers latent confounders related to users and items, reducing bias and thereby improving recommendation accuracy.

Mitigating Dual Latent Confounding Biases in Recommender Systems

Recommender systems are extensively utilised across various areas to predict user preferences for personalised experiences and enhanced user engagement and satisfaction. Traditional recommender systems, however, are complicated by confounding bias, particularly in the presence of latent confounders that affect both item exposure and user feedback. Existing debiasing methods often fail to capture the complex interactions caused by latent confounders in interaction data, especially when dual latent confounders affect both the user and item sides. To address this, we propose a novel debiasing method that jointly integrates the Instrumental Variables (IV) approach and identifiable Variational Auto-Encoder (iVAE) for Debiased representation learning in Recommendation systems, referred to as IViDR. Specifically, IViDR leverages the embeddings of user features as IVs to address confounding bias caused by latent confounders between items and user feedback, and reconstructs the embedding of items to obtain debiased interaction data. Moreover, IViDR employs an Identifiable Variational Auto-Encoder (iVAE) to infer identifiable representations of latent confounders between item exposure and user feedback from both the original and debiased interaction data. Additionally, we provide theoretical analyses of the soundness of using IV and the identifiability of the latent representations. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that IViDR outperforms state-of-the-art models in reducing bias and providing reliable recommendations.