NJUST-KMG at TRAC-2024 Tasks 1 and 2: Offline Harm Potential Identification

This report provide a detailed description of the method that we proposed in the TRAC-2024 Offline Harm Potential dentification which encloses two sub-tasks. The investigation utilized a rich dataset comprised of social media comments in several Indian languages, annotated with precision by expert judges to capture the nuanced implications for offline context harm. The objective assigned to the participants was to design algorithms capable of accurately assessing the likelihood of harm in given situations and identifying the most likely target(s) of offline harm. Our approach ranked second in two separate tracks, with F1 values of 0.73 and 0.96 respectively. Our method principally involved selecting pretrained models for finetuning, incorporating contrastive learning techniques, and culminating in an ensemble approach for the test set.

Jointly Learning Representations for Map Entities via Heterogeneous Graph Contrastive Learning

The electronic map plays a crucial role in geographic information systems, serving various urban managerial scenarios and daily life services. Developing effective Map Entity Representation Learning (MERL) methods is crucial to extracting embedding information from electronic maps and converting map entities into representation vectors for downstream applications. However, existing MERL methods typically focus on one specific category of map entities, such as POIs, road segments, or land parcels, which is insufficient for real-world diverse map-based applications and might lose latent structural and semantic information interacting between entities of different types. Moreover, using representations generated by separate models for different map entities can introduce inconsistencies. Motivated by this, we propose a novel method named HOME-GCL for learning representations of multiple categories of map entities. Our approach utilizes a heterogeneous map entity graph (HOME graph) that integrates both road segments and land parcels into a unified framework. A HOME encoder with parcel-segment joint feature encoding and heterogeneous graph transformer is then deliberately designed to convert segments and parcels into representation vectors. Moreover, we introduce two types of contrastive learning tasks, namely intra-entity and inter-entity tasks, to train the encoder in a self-supervised manner. Extensive experiments on three large-scale datasets covering road segment-based, land parcel-based, and trajectory-based tasks demonstrate the superiority of our approach. To the best of our knowledge, HOME-GCL is the first attempt to jointly learn representations for road segments and land parcels using a unified model.

AirPhyNet: Harnessing Physics-Guided Neural Networks for Air Quality Prediction

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.

Full Bayesian Significance Testing for Neural Networks

Significance testing aims to determine whether a proposition about the population distribution is the truth or not given observations. However, traditional significance testing often needs to derive the distribution of the testing statistic, failing to deal with complex nonlinear relationships. In this paper, we propose to conduct Full Bayesian Significance Testing for neural networks, called \textit{n}FBST, to overcome the limitation in relationship characterization of traditional approaches. A Bayesian neural network is utilized to fit the nonlinear and multi-dimensional relationships with small errors and avoid hard theoretical derivation by computing the evidence value. Besides, \textit{n}FBST can test not only global significance but also local and instance-wise significance, which previous testing methods don't focus on. Moreover, \textit{n}FBST is a general framework that can be extended based on the measures selected, such as Grad-\textit{n}FBST, LRP-\textit{n}FBST, DeepLIFT-\textit{n}FBST, LIME-\textit{n}FBST. A range of experiments on both simulated and real data are conducted to show the advantages of our method.

Self-Supervised Deconfounding Against Spatio-Temporal Shifts: Theory and Modeling

As an important application of spatio-temporal (ST) data, ST traffic forecasting plays a crucial role in improving urban travel efficiency and promoting sustainable development. In practice, the dynamics of traffic data frequently undergo distributional shifts attributed to external factors such as time evolution and spatial differences. This entails forecasting models to handle the out-of-distribution (OOD) issue where test data is distributed differently from training data. In this work, we first formalize the problem by constructing a causal graph of past traffic data, future traffic data, and external ST contexts. We reveal that the failure of prior arts in OOD traffic data is due to ST contexts acting as a confounder, i.e., the common cause for past data and future ones. Then, we propose a theoretical solution named Disentangled Contextual Adjustment (DCA) from a causal lens. It differentiates invariant causal correlations against variant spurious ones and deconfounds the effect of ST contexts. On top of that, we devise a Spatio-Temporal sElf-superVised dEconfounding (STEVE) framework. It first encodes traffic data into two disentangled representations for associating invariant and variant ST contexts. Then, we use representative ST contexts from three conceptually different perspectives (i.e., temporal, spatial, and semantic) as self-supervised signals to inject context information into both representations. In this way, we improve the generalization ability of the learned context-oriented representations to OOD ST traffic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on four large-scale benchmark datasets demonstrate that our STEVE consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines across various ST OOD scenarios.

Multi-Factor Spatio-Temporal Prediction based on Graph Decomposition Learning

Spatio-temporal (ST) prediction is an important and widely used technique in data mining and analytics, especially for ST data in urban systems such as transportation data. In practice, the ST data generation is usually influenced by various latent factors tied to natural phenomena or human socioeconomic activities, impacting specific spatial areas selectively. However, existing ST prediction methods usually do not refine the impacts of different factors, but directly model the entangled impacts of multiple factors. This amplifies the modeling complexity of ST data and compromises model interpretability. To this end, we propose a multi-factor ST prediction task that predicts partial ST data evolution under different factors, and combines them for a final prediction. We make two contributions to this task: an effective theoretical solution and a portable instantiation framework. Specifically, we first propose a theoretical solution called decomposed prediction strategy and prove its effectiveness from the perspective of information entropy theory. On top of that, we instantiate a novel model-agnostic framework, named spatio-temporal graph decomposition learning (STGDL), for multi-factor ST prediction. The framework consists of two main components: an automatic graph decomposition module that decomposes the original graph structure inherent in ST data into subgraphs corresponding to different factors, and a decomposed learning network that learns the partial ST data on each subgraph separately and integrates them for the final prediction. We conduct extensive experiments on four real-world ST datasets of two types of graphs, i.e., grid graph and network graph. Results show that our framework significantly reduces prediction errors of various ST models by 9.41% on average (35.36% at most). Furthermore, a case study reveals the interpretability potential of our framework.

Unified Data Management and Comprehensive Performance Evaluation for Urban Spatial-Temporal Prediction [Experiment, Analysis & Benchmark]

The field of urban spatial-temporal prediction is advancing rapidly with the development of deep learning techniques and the availability of large-scale datasets. However, challenges persist in accessing and utilizing diverse urban spatial-temporal datasets from different sources and stored in different formats, as well as determining effective model structures and components with the proliferation of deep learning models. This work addresses these challenges and provides three significant contributions. Firstly, we introduce "atomic files", a unified storage format designed for urban spatial-temporal big data, and validate its effectiveness on 40 diverse datasets, simplifying data management. Secondly, we present a comprehensive overview of technological advances in urban spatial-temporal prediction models, guiding the development of robust models. Thirdly, we conduct extensive experiments using diverse models and datasets, establishing a performance leaderboard and identifying promising research directions. Overall, this work effectively manages urban spatial-temporal data, guides future efforts, and facilitates the development of accurate and efficient urban spatial-temporal prediction models. It can potentially make long-term contributions to urban spatial-temporal data management and prediction, ultimately leading to improved urban living standards.

Statistical Tests for Replacing Human Decision Makers with Algorithms

This paper proposes a statistical framework with which artificial intelligence can improve human decision making. The performance of each human decision maker is first benchmarked against machine predictions; we then replace the decisions made by a subset of the decision makers with the recommendation from the proposed artificial intelligence algorithm. Using a large nationwide dataset of pregnancy outcomes and doctor diagnoses from prepregnancy checkups of reproductive age couples, we experimented with both a heuristic frequentist approach and a Bayesian posterior loss function approach with an application to abnormal birth detection. We find that our algorithm on a test dataset results in a higher overall true positive rate and a lower false positive rate than the diagnoses made by doctors only. We also find that the diagnoses of doctors from rural areas are more frequently replaceable, suggesting that artificial intelligence assisted decision making tends to improve precision more in less developed regions.

The Web Can Be Your Oyster for Improving Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) encode a large amount of world knowledge. However, as such knowledge is frozen at the time of model training, the models become static and limited by the training data at that time. In order to further improve the capacity of LLMs for knowledge-intensive tasks, we consider augmenting LLMs with the large-scale web using search engine. Unlike previous augmentation sources (e.g., Wikipedia data dump), the web provides broader, more comprehensive and constantly updated information. In this paper, we present a web-augmented LLM UNIWEB, which is trained over 16 knowledge-intensive tasks in a unified text-to-text format. Instead of simply using the retrieved contents from web, our approach has made two major improvements. Firstly, we propose an adaptive search engine assisted learning method that can self-evaluate the confidence level of LLM's predictions, and adaptively determine when to refer to the web for more data, which can avoid useless or noisy augmentation from web. Secondly, we design a pretraining task, i.e., continual knowledge learning, based on salient spans prediction, to reduce the discrepancy between the encoded and retrieved knowledge. Experiments on a wide range of knowledge-intensive tasks show that our model significantly outperforms previous retrieval-augmented methods.