A Systematic Evaluation of Black-Box Uncertainty Estimation Methods for Large Language Models

Although large language models (LLMs) have shown strong capabilities across a wide range of tasks, their outputs often remain unreliable and may contain hallucinations, making uncertainty estimation (UE) essential for building trustworthy LLMs. In practice, many mainstream LLMs are only accessible through restricted APIs, where internal signals such as logits and hidden states are unavailable, making black-box UE especially important. However, existing work on black-box UE for LLMs remains fragmented in methodology and lacks a unified empirical comparison. To address this gap, we present a systematic review of black-box UE methods and organize them into five categories: verbalization-based, sampling-based, explanation-based, multi-agent, and hybrid methods. We further build a unified evaluation framework and benchmark 24 representative methods across 4 models and 4 dataset settings. Our results show that no single method consistently dominates across all settings. Nevertheless, methods that reason over and compare candidates in the answer space are generally effective, and hybrid methods that combine multiple uncertainty signals perform well under most conditions. By releasing the benchmark data and a unified evaluation framework, we aim to facilitate reproducible comparisons and support future research, while our empirical findings provide practical guidance for developing future black-box UE methods for LLMs.

Kernel-Based Functional Balancing for Causal Inference with Compositional Treatments

We study causal effect estimation with compositional treatments, where the exposure lies on a simplex and the estimand is defined over compositions rather than scalar or binary values. By considering a projection of the average potential outcome onto the treatment space, a kernel-based covariate functional balancing approach is adopted for weight construction. The weights are obtained by directly minimizing a worst-case balancing error over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) defined on the joint space of treatments and covariates, instead of being estimated under a treatment assignment model. Building on these weights, an augmented weighted estimator (AWE) is proposed, where the outcome function is estimated via kernel ridge regression and combined with a marginal augmentation over the covariate distribution. Despite the complex structure of the resulting objective, a finite-dimensional convex optimization problem is formulated via a representer theorem and a low-rank approximation. The proposed estimator achieves $\sqrt{n}$-consistency without requiring consistent estimation or smoothness of the weights. An asymptotic normality result is established around a sample-specific target. Empirical performance is demonstrated through simulation studies and a real data application.

AnnotateAnything: Automatic Annotation of 3D Assets for Robot Manipulation

Simulation enables scalable robot data collection, but raw 3D assets provide only geometry, lacking the semantic, interactive, and physical knowledge needed to specify where and how robots should act. In this work, we present AnnotateAnything, a general automatic annotation framework that converts passive 3D assets into manipulation-ready assets with structured, diverse, and executable manipulation labels. AnnotateAnything is built around two complementary pipelines. First, a unified visual-language annotation pipeline using vision-language reasoning to infer object semantics, interaction constraints, and 3D-grounded cues, providing human-prior guidance for identifying meaningful interaction regions. Second, a fully automatic and massively parallel physics annotation pipeline grounds these priors in each asset's geometry and physical constraints through candidate generation, geometry optimization and trajectory generation. This pipeline produces diverse and executable action annotations, including grasp poses, dexterous contacts, articulation waypoints, insertion directions, hanging affordances, and navigation targets. Using the generated annotations, we further build an asynchronous parallel simulation data-collection system across diverse objects, tasks, and robot embodiments. Experiments demonstrate that AnnotateAnything achieves superior annotation efficiency, data-collection efficiency, and task success rates over existing annotation and data-generation pipelines, while also supporting downstream tasks such as affordance detection, robotic VQA, and visual instruction finetuning. We provide project materials on the project page and plan to release the full code, annotations, and benchmark to facilitate future research. Videos, code, demo assets, and annotations are provided in supplementary materials Project page: https://tourmaline-caramel-169490.netlify.app.

MagicSim: A Unified Infrastructure for Executable Embodied Interaction

Robot learning and embodied agents now require simulation to serve as a shared execution substrate linking control, skills, and planning, not only as a renderer, controller testbed, or fixed task environment. Existing pipelines split these layers with "magic" actions, disconnected training environments, or forward-only renders that cannot reproduce, evaluate, and annotate the same episode. We present MagicSim, an embodied interaction infrastructure built around one deterministic batched runtime and a shared Markov decision process (MDP). From YAML-first specifications that decouple contents, placement, behavior, and agent exposure, MagicSim constructs diverse executable worlds spanning task families, interaction regimes, physics, layouts, sensors, avatars, and robot embodiments in one reset-and-step loop. A common execution interface grounds high-level commands through controllers, atomicskills, planner primitives, and asynchronous planning, realizing them as robot actions rather than simulator-side state edits. One task definition supports three capabilities: benchmark and RL evaluation, an autocollect interface that automatically turns commands into grounded trajectories, and agent/VLM-facing interaction. For automatic execution, commands flow through a Command->Skill->Planner->Robot->Record pipeline, while per-environment command, skill, planning, retry, annotation, and episode states advance independently above the shared physics tick. Successful rollouts are saved as structured multimodal trajectories aligning language supervision, action representations, visual/geometric representations, and task-level status with the executed episode. MagicSim thus unifies diverse world construction, embodied execution, task evaluation, automatic rollout generation, and interactive agent interfaces in one planner-in-the-loop runtime.

LUCID: Learned Undersampling-Adaptive Consistency-Guided Inference with Deterministic Flow Matching for Sparse-View CT Reconstruction

Sparse-view CT reduces radiation dose and scanning time by acquiring fewer projection views, but angular undersampling makes reconstruction severely ill-posed, causing streak artifacts, structural blurring, and loss of fine details. Existing supervised methods are often tied to specific sampling settings, whereas generative methods may introduce anatomically inconsistent hallucination-like structures under severe undersampling. We propose Lucid, a sparsity-adaptive, consistency-guided reconstruction framework based on a Flow Matching generative prior for sparse-view CT. Lucid is trained only on high-quality CT images to learn a continuous transport between a Gaussian distribution and the high-quality CT image distribution, independent of view sampling. During inference, the sampling sparsity level is explicitly incorporated to adapt the generative trajectory of a single pretrained model. Specifically, Lucid constructs a degradation-matched initial state by sparsity-weighted fusion of the sparse-view FBP image and Gaussian noise, performs sparsity-modulated Flow Matching updates, and applies projection-domain data-consistency correction after each prior update. Experiments under multiple sparse-view settings show that Lucid achieves stable reconstruction performance across different sampling densities, improves image quality and structural fidelity, and reduces the risk of hallucination-like structures in generative sparse-view CT reconstruction.

HierSVA: A Data Synthesis Pipeline, Dataset, and Benchmark for LLM-Driven Hierarchical Hardware Formal Verification

We present HierSVA, an integrated suite that combines a pipeline, dataset, and benchmark for LLM-driven hierarchical hardware formal verification. HierSVA-SP pairs an RTL preprocessing toolchain with an LLM-in-the-loop formal verification flow to produce reference SystemVerilog Assertions (SVA) on hierarchical RTL. Applying it to BaseJump STL yields HierSVA-DS, a dataset of 342 modules, with hierarchy metadata and depths 0--9, accompanied by a deep subset of 28 module-bug pairs with natural-language specifications and bug variants. HierSVA-B decomposes assertion quality into six metric axes: syntax correctness, assertion proof success rate, vacuity, specification faithfulness, mutation coverage, and formal core coverage. Applying HierSVA-B to twelve recent LLMs reveals three findings. First, the module-level compile rate is 67.1\%; among generated assertions in evaluable runs, 82.1\% prove non-vacuously, but the corresponding assertion sets detect only 70.2\% of eligible injected faults and cover 36.2\% of the formal core. Second, on 211 evaluable model--module entries in the deep subset, assertion sets flag buggy RTL with 0.87 recall, but 40\% of predicted-buggy outcomes are false positives on correct RTL, limiting precision to 0.60. Third, agentic mode improves S1-style provability and strength metrics, but gains plateau and oscillate. Codes and artifacts are available at \href{https://github.com/HierSVAAnon/HierSVACodeAndArtifacts}{https://github.com/HierSVAAnon/HierSVACodeAndArtifacts}. Dataset is available at \href{https://huggingface.co/datasets/AnonymousHierSVA/HierSVA}{https://huggingface.co/datasets/AnonymousHierSVA/HierSVA}.

Low-rank Distributional Matrix Completion

We study a distributional generalization of the matrix completion problem in which each entry of the target matrix is a probability distribution rather than a scalar. In this setting, only a subset of matrix entries is observed, and even for observed entries, the underlying distributions are not directly accessible; instead, we observe finitely many samples drawn from them. To represent distributional entries, we employ kernel mean embeddings and introduce a notion of Tucker rank for distribution-valued matrices to capture their low-rank structure. The infinite-dimensional nature of kernel embeddings poses significant methodological challenges. To address this, we introduce functional unfolding operators that link the proposed distributional low-rank structure to the classical Tucker rank for finite-dimensional tensors. Based on this framework, we propose a novel estimator for distributional matrix completion. We establish non-asymptotic error bounds that characterize the statistical performance of the estimator. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and a real-world application demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

An exponential mechanism based on quadratic approximations for fine-tuning machine learning models with privacy guarantees

Fine-tuning adapts a pretrained machine learning model to a small, sensitive dataset, but this process risks memorizing individual new data points, making the model vulnerable to adversaries who seek to extract sensitive information. In this work, we develop a randomized algorithm based on the exponential mechanism for fine-tuning while ensuring differential privacy. Our key idea is to construct a simple utility function that combines a local quadratic approximation of the pretrained model with information from the new dataset. The resulting exponential mechanism admits exact sampling from a multivariate normal distribution in closed form. We establish theoretical privacy guarantees, sensitivity bounds, and accuracy estimations for our method. We further introduce a random-projection strategy that makes the approach scalable to high-dimensional models. Numerical experiments on the MNIST benchmark and the MIMIC clinical dataset demonstrate competitive performance against existing differentially private fine-tuning techniques.

FDIM: A Feature-distance-based Generic Video Quality Metric for Versatile Codecs

Video technology is advancing toward Ultra High Definition (UHD) and High Dynamic Range (HDR), which intensifies the need for higher compression efficiency for these high-specification videos. Beyond advances in traditional codecs, neural video codecs (NVCs) have attracted significant research attention and have evolved rapidly over the past few years. The coding artifacts of NVCs often exhibit content-varying and generative characteristics, which differ from those of conventional codecs and are challenging for traditional video quality assessment (VQA) methods to capture. Therefore, VQA metrics are required to generalize across different codecs, content types, and dynamic ranges to better support video codec research and evaluation. In this paper, we propose FDIM, a feature-distance-based generic video quality metric for both traditional and neural video codecs across SDR and HDR formats. FDIM employs a hybrid architecture that integrates deep and hand-crafted features. The deep feature component learns multi-scale representations to capture distortions ranging from structural and textural fidelity degradation to high-level semantic deviations, while the hand-crafted feature component provides stable complementary cues to improve overall generalization. We trained FDIM on a large-scale subjective quality assessment dataset (DCVQA) consisting of over 16k video sequences encoded by traditional block-based hybrid video codecs and end-to-end perceptually optimized neural video codecs. Extensive experiments on ten SDR/HDR VQA datasets containing diverse, previously unseen codecs demonstrate that FDIM achieves strong generalization and high correlation with subjective assessment. The source code for FDIM and the DCVQA validation set will be released at https://github.com/MCL-ZJU/FDIM.

InHabit: Leveraging Image Foundation Models for Scalable 3D Human Placement

Training embodied agents to understand 3D scenes as humans do requires large-scale data of people meaningfully interacting with diverse environments, yet such data is scarce. Real-world motion capture is costly and limited to controlled settings, while existing synthetic datasets rely on simple geometric heuristics that ignore rich scene context. In contrast, 2D foundation models trained on internet-scale data have implicitly acquired commonsense knowledge of human-environment interactions. To transfer this knowledge into 3D, we introduce InHabit, a fully automatic and scalable data generator for populating 3D scenes with interacting humans. InHabit follows a render-generate-lift principle: given a rendered 3D scene, a vision-language model proposes contextually meaningful actions, an image-editing model inserts a human, and an optimization procedure lifts the edited result into physically plausible SMPL-X bodies aligned with the scene geometry. Applied to Habitat-Matterport3D, InHabit produces the first large-scale photorealistic 3D human-scene interaction dataset, containing 78K samples across 800 building-scale scenes with complete 3D geometry, SMPL-X bodies, and RGB images. Augmenting standard training data with our samples improves RGB-based 3D human-scene reconstruction and contact estimation, and in a perceptual user study our data is preferred in 78% of cases over the state of the art.