Rethinking Test-time Likelihood: The Likelihood Path Principle and Its Application to OOD Detection

While likelihood is attractive in theory, its estimates by deep generative models (DGMs) are often broken in practice, and perform poorly for out of distribution (OOD) Detection. Various recent works started to consider alternative scores and achieved better performances. However, such recipes do not come with provable guarantees, nor is it clear that their choices extract sufficient information. We attempt to change this by conducting a case study on variational autoencoders (VAEs). First, we introduce the likelihood path (LPath) principle, generalizing the likelihood principle. This narrows the search for informative summary statistics down to the minimal sufficient statistics of VAEs' conditional likelihoods. Second, introducing new theoretic tools such as nearly essential support, essential distance and co-Lipschitzness, we obtain non-asymptotic provable OOD detection guarantees for certain distillation of the minimal sufficient statistics. The corresponding LPath algorithm demonstrates SOTA performances, even using simple and small VAEs with poor likelihood estimates. To our best knowledge, this is the first provable unsupervised OOD method that delivers excellent empirical results, better than any other VAEs based techniques. We use the same model as \cite{xiao2020likelihood}, open sourced from: https://github.com/XavierXiao/Likelihood-Regret

Driving into the Future: Multiview Visual Forecasting and Planning with World Model for Autonomous Driving

In autonomous driving, predicting future events in advance and evaluating the foreseeable risks empowers autonomous vehicles to better plan their actions, enhancing safety and efficiency on the road. To this end, we propose Drive-WM, the first driving world model compatible with existing end-to-end planning models. Through a joint spatial-temporal modeling facilitated by view factorization, our model generates high-fidelity multiview videos in driving scenes. Building on its powerful generation ability, we showcase the potential of applying the world model for safe driving planning for the first time. Particularly, our Drive-WM enables driving into multiple futures based on distinct driving maneuvers, and determines the optimal trajectory according to the image-based rewards. Evaluation on real-world driving datasets verifies that our method could generate high-quality, consistent, and controllable multiview videos, opening up possibilities for real-world simulations and safe planning.

AutoCast++: Enhancing World Event Prediction with Zero-shot Ranking-based Context Retrieval

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Localization-Guided Track: A Deep Association Multi-Object Tracking Framework Based on Localization Confidence of Detections

In currently available literature, no tracking-by-detection (TBD) paradigm-based tracking method has considered the localization confidence of detection boxes. In most TBD-based methods, it is considered that objects of low detection confidence are highly occluded and thus it is a normal practice to directly disregard such objects or to reduce their priority in matching. In addition, appearance similarity is not a factor to consider for matching these objects. However, in terms of the detection confidence fusing classification and localization, objects of low detection confidence may have inaccurate localization but clear appearance; similarly, objects of high detection confidence may have inaccurate localization or unclear appearance; yet these objects are not further classified. In view of these issues, we propose Localization-Guided Track (LG-Track). Firstly, localization confidence is applied in MOT for the first time, with appearance clarity and localization accuracy of detection boxes taken into account, and an effective deep association mechanism is designed; secondly, based on the classification confidence and localization confidence, a more appropriate cost matrix can be selected and used; finally, extensive experiments have been conducted on MOT17 and MOT20 datasets. The results show that our proposed method outperforms the compared state-of-art tracking methods. For the benefit of the community, our code has been made publicly at https://github.com/mengting2023/LG-Track.

2D Supervised Monocular 3D Object Detection by Global-to-Local 3D Reconstruction

With the advent of the big model era, the demand for data has become more important. Especially in monocular 3D object detection, expensive manual annotations potentially limit further developments. Existing works have investigated weakly supervised algorithms with the help of LiDAR modality to generate 3D pseudo labels, which cannot be applied to ordinary videos. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm, termed as BA$^2$-Det, leveraging the idea of global-to-local 3D reconstruction for 2D supervised monocular 3D object detection. Specifically, we recover 3D structures from monocular videos by scene-level global reconstruction with global bundle adjustment (BA) and obtain object clusters by the DoubleClustering algorithm. Learning from completely reconstructed objects in global BA, GBA-Learner predicts pseudo labels for occluded objects. Finally, we train an LBA-Learner with object-centric local BA to generalize the generated 3D pseudo labels to moving objects. Experiments on the large-scale Waymo Open Dataset show that the performance of BA$^2$-Det is on par with the fully-supervised BA-Det trained with 10% videos and even outperforms some pioneer fully-supervised methods. We also show the great potential of BA$^2$-Det for detecting open-set 3D objects in complex scenes. The code will be made available. Project page: https://ba2det.site .

Tracking Objects with 3D Representation from Videos

Data association is a knotty problem for 2D Multiple Object Tracking due to the object occlusion. However, in 3D space, data association is not so hard. Only with a 3D Kalman Filter, the online object tracker can associate the detections from LiDAR. In this paper, we rethink the data association in 2D MOT and utilize the 3D object representation to separate each object in the feature space. Unlike the existing depth-based MOT methods, the 3D object representation can be jointly learned with the object association module. Besides, the object's 3D representation is learned from the video and supervised by the 2D tracking labels without additional manual annotations from LiDAR or pretrained depth estimator. With 3D object representation learning from Pseudo 3D object labels in monocular videos, we propose a new 2D MOT paradigm, called P3DTrack. Extensive experiments show the effectiveness of our method. We achieve new state-of-the-art performance on the large-scale Waymo Open Dataset.

You Only Need Two Detectors to Achieve Multi-Modal 3D Multi-Object Tracking

Firstly, a new multi-object tracking framework is proposed in this paper based on multi-modal fusion. By integrating object detection and multi-object tracking into the same model, this framework avoids the complex data association process in the classical TBD paradigm, and requires no additional training. Secondly, confidence of historical trajectory regression is explored, possible states of a trajectory in the current frame (weak object or strong object) are analyzed and a confidence fusion module is designed to guide non-maximum suppression of trajectory and detection for ordered association. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted on the KITTI and Waymo datasets. The results show that the proposed method can achieve robust tracking by using only two modal detectors and it is more accurate than many of the latest TBD paradigm-based multi-modal tracking methods. The source codes of the proposed method are available at https://github.com/wangxiyang2022/YONTD-MOT

3D Video Object Detection with Learnable Object-Centric Global Optimization

We explore long-term temporal visual correspondence-based optimization for 3D video object detection in this work. Visual correspondence refers to one-to-one mappings for pixels across multiple images. Correspondence-based optimization is the cornerstone for 3D scene reconstruction but is less studied in 3D video object detection, because moving objects violate multi-view geometry constraints and are treated as outliers during scene reconstruction. We address this issue by treating objects as first-class citizens during correspondence-based optimization. In this work, we propose BA-Det, an end-to-end optimizable object detector with object-centric temporal correspondence learning and featuremetric object bundle adjustment. Empirically, we verify the effectiveness and efficiency of BA-Det for multiple baseline 3D detectors under various setups. Our BA-Det achieves SOTA performance on the large-scale Waymo Open Dataset (WOD) with only marginal computation cost. Our code is available at https://github.com/jiaweihe1996/BA-Det.

Learnable Graph Matching: A Practical Paradigm for Data Association

Data association is at the core of many computer vision tasks, e.g., multiple object tracking, image matching, and point cloud registration. Existing methods usually solve the data association problem by network flow optimization, bipartite matching, or end-to-end learning directly. Despite their popularity, we find some defects of the current solutions: they mostly ignore the intra-view context information; besides, they either train deep association models in an end-to-end way and hardly utilize the advantage of optimization-based assignment methods, or only use an off-the-shelf neural network to extract features. In this paper, we propose a general learnable graph matching method to address these issues. Especially, we model the intra-view relationships as an undirected graph. Then data association turns into a general graph matching problem between graphs. Furthermore, to make optimization end-to-end differentiable, we relax the original graph matching problem into continuous quadratic programming and then incorporate training into a deep graph neural network with KKT conditions and implicit function theorem. In MOT task, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on several MOT datasets. For image matching, our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods with half training data and iterations on a popular indoor dataset, ScanNet. Code will be available at https://github.com/jiaweihe1996/GMTracker.

3D Multi-Object Tracking Based on Uncertainty-Guided Data Association

In the existing literature, most 3D multi-object tracking algorithms based on the tracking-by-detection framework employed deterministic tracks and detections for similarity calculation in the data association stage. Namely, the inherent uncertainties existing in tracks and detections are overlooked. In this work, we discard the commonly used deterministic tracks and deterministic detections for data association, instead, we propose to model tracks and detections as random vectors in which uncertainties are taken into account. Then, based on the Jensen-Shannon divergence, the similarity between two multidimensional distributions, i.e. track and detection, is evaluated for data association purposes. Lastly, the level of track uncertainty is incorporated in our cost function design to guide the data association process. Comparative experiments have been conducted on two typical datasets, KITTI and nuScenes, and the results indicated that our proposed method outperformed the compared state-of-the-art 3D tracking algorithms. For the benefit of the community, our code has been made available at https://github.com/hejiawei2023/UG3DMOT.