PcLast: Discovering Plannable Continuous Latent States

Goal-conditioned planning benefits from learned low-dimensional representations of rich, high-dimensional observations. While compact latent representations, typically learned from variational autoencoders or inverse dynamics, enable goal-conditioned planning they ignore state affordances, thus hampering their sample-efficient planning capabilities. In this paper, we learn a representation that associates reachable states together for effective onward planning. We first learn a latent representation with multi-step inverse dynamics (to remove distracting information); and then transform this representation to associate reachable states together in $\ell_2$ space. Our proposals are rigorously tested in various simulation testbeds. Numerical results in reward-based and reward-free settings show significant improvements in sampling efficiency, and yields layered state abstractions that enable computationally efficient hierarchical planning.

AutoCast++: Enhancing World Event Prediction with Zero-shot Ranking-based Context Retrieval

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Tsetlin Machine for Solving Contextual Bandit Problems

This paper introduces an interpretable contextual bandit algorithm using Tsetlin Machines, which solves complex pattern recognition tasks using propositional logic. The proposed bandit learning algorithm relies on straightforward bit manipulation, thus simplifying computation and interpretation. We then present a mechanism for performing Thompson sampling with Tsetlin Machine, given its non-parametric nature. Our empirical analysis shows that Tsetlin Machine as a base contextual bandit learner outperforms other popular base learners on eight out of nine datasets. We further analyze the interpretability of our learner, investigating how arms are selected based on propositional expressions that model the context.

Approximate information state for approximate planning and reinforcement learning in partially observed systems

We propose a theoretical framework for approximate planning and learning in partially observed systems. Our framework is based on the fundamental notion of information state. We provide two equivalent definitions of information state---i) a function of history which is sufficient to compute the expected reward and predict its next value; ii) equivalently, a function of the history which can be recursively updated and is sufficient to compute the expected reward and predict the next observation. An information state always leads to a dynamic programming decomposition. Our key result is to show that if a function of the history (called approximate information state (AIS)) approximately satisfies the properties of the information state, then there is a corresponding approximate dynamic program. We show that the policy computed using this is approximately optimal with bounded loss of optimality. We show that several approximations in state, observation and action spaces in literature can be viewed as instances of AIS. In some of these cases, we obtain tighter bounds. A salient feature of AIS is that it can be learnt from data. We present AIS based multi-time scale policy gradient algorithms. and detailed numerical experiments with low, moderate and high dimensional environments.

Doubly Robust Off-Policy Actor-Critic Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning

We study the problem of off-policy critic evaluation in several variants of value-based off-policy actor-critic algorithms. Off-policy actor-critic algorithms require an off-policy critic evaluation step, to estimate the value of the new policy after every policy gradient update. Despite enormous success of off-policy policy gradients on control tasks, existing general methods suffer from high variance and instability, partly because the policy improvement depends on gradient of the estimated value function. In this work, we present a new way of off-policy policy evaluation in actor-critic, based on the doubly robust estimators. We extend the doubly robust estimator from off-policy policy evaluation (OPE) to actor-critic algorithms that consist of a reward estimator performance model. We find that doubly robust estimation of the critic can significantly improve performance in continuous control tasks. Furthermore, in cases where the reward function is stochastic that can lead to high variance, doubly robust critic estimation can improve performance under corrupted, stochastic reward signals, indicating its usefulness for robust and safe reinforcement learning.

Entropy Regularization with Discounted Future State Distribution in Policy Gradient Methods

The policy gradient theorem is defined based on an objective with respect to the initial distribution over states. In the discounted case, this results in policies that are optimal for one distribution over initial states, but may not be uniformly optimal for others, no matter where the agent starts from. Furthermore, to obtain unbiased gradient estimates, the starting point of the policy gradient estimator requires sampling states from a normalized discounted weighting of states. However, the difficulty of estimating the normalized discounted weighting of states, or the stationary state distribution, is quite well-known. Additionally, the large sample complexity of policy gradient methods is often attributed to insufficient exploration, and to remedy this, it is often assumed that the restart distribution provides sufficient exploration in these algorithms. In this work, we propose exploration in policy gradient methods based on maximizing entropy of the discounted future state distribution. The key contribution of our work includes providing a practically feasible algorithm to estimate the normalized discounted weighting of states, i.e, the \textit{discounted future state distribution}. We propose that exploration can be achieved by entropy regularization with the discounted state distribution in policy gradients, where a metric for maximal coverage of the state space can be based on the entropy of the induced state distribution. The proposed approach can be considered as a three time-scale algorithm and under some mild technical conditions, we prove its convergence to a locally optimal policy. Experimentally, we demonstrate usefulness of regularization with the discounted future state distribution in terms of increased state space coverage and faster learning on a range of complex tasks.