HiMTM: Hierarchical Multi-Scale Masked Time Series Modeling for Long-Term Forecasting

Time series forecasting is crucial and challenging in the real world. The recent surge in interest regarding time series foundation models, which cater to a diverse array of downstream tasks, is noteworthy. However, existing methods often overlook the multi-scale nature of time series, an aspect crucial for precise forecasting. To bridge this gap, we propose HiMTM, a hierarchical multi-scale masked time series modeling method designed for long-term forecasting. Specifically, it comprises four integral components: (1) hierarchical multi-scale transformer (HMT) to capture temporal information at different scales; (2) decoupled encoder-decoder (DED) forces the encoder to focus on feature extraction, while the decoder to focus on pretext tasks; (3) multi-scale masked reconstruction (MMR) provides multi-stage supervision signals for pre-training; (4) cross-scale attention fine-tuning (CSA-FT) to capture dependencies between different scales for forecasting. Collectively, these components enhance multi-scale feature extraction capabilities in masked time series modeling and contribute to improved prediction accuracy. We conduct extensive experiments on 7 mainstream datasets to prove that HiMTM has obvious advantages over contemporary self-supervised and end-to-end learning methods. The effectiveness of HiMTM is further showcased by its application in the industry of natural gas demand forecasting.

The Quantified Boolean Bayesian Network: Theory and Experiments with a Logical Graphical Model

This paper introduces the Quantified Boolean Bayesian Network (QBBN), which provides a unified view of logical and probabilistic reasoning. The QBBN is meant to address a central problem with the Large Language Model (LLM), which has become extremely popular in Information Retrieval, which is that the LLM hallucinates. A Bayesian Network, by construction, cannot hallucinate, because it can only return answers that it can explain. We show how a Bayesian Network over an unbounded number of boolean variables can be configured to represent the logical reasoning underlying human language. We do this by creating a key-value version of the First-Order Calculus, for which we can prove consistency and completeness. We show that the model is trivially trained over fully observed data, but that inference is non-trivial. Exact inference in a Bayesian Network is intractable (i.e. $\Omega(2^N)$ for $N$ variables). For inference, we investigate the use of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP), which is not guaranteed to converge, but which has been shown to often converge in practice. Our experiments show that LBP indeed does converge very reliably, and our analysis shows that a round of LBP takes time $O(N2^n)$, where $N$ bounds the number of variables considered, and $n$ bounds the number of incoming connections to any factor, and further improvements may be possible. Our network is specifically designed to alternate between AND and OR gates in a Boolean Algebra, which connects more closely to logical reasoning, allowing a completeness proof for an expanded version of our network, and also allows inference to follow specific but adequate pathways, that turn out to be fast.

Prompt Learning on Temporal Interaction Graphs

Temporal Interaction Graphs (TIGs) are widely utilized to represent real-world systems. To facilitate representation learning on TIGs, researchers have proposed a series of TIG models. However, these models are still facing two tough gaps between the pre-training and downstream predictions in their ``pre-train, predict'' training paradigm. First, the temporal discrepancy between the pre-training and inference data severely undermines the models' applicability in distant future predictions on the dynamically evolving data. Second, the semantic divergence between pretext and downstream tasks hinders their practical applications, as they struggle to align with their learning and prediction capabilities across application scenarios. Recently, the ``pre-train, prompt'' paradigm has emerged as a lightweight mechanism for model generalization. Applying this paradigm is a potential solution to solve the aforementioned challenges. However, the adaptation of this paradigm to TIGs is not straightforward. The application of prompting in static graph contexts falls short in temporal settings due to a lack of consideration for time-sensitive dynamics and a deficiency in expressive power. To address this issue, we introduce Temporal Interaction Graph Prompting (TIGPrompt), a versatile framework that seamlessly integrates with TIG models, bridging both the temporal and semantic gaps. In detail, we propose a temporal prompt generator to offer temporally-aware prompts for different tasks. These prompts stand out for their minimalistic design, relying solely on the tuning of the prompt generator with very little supervision data. To cater to varying computational resource demands, we propose an extended ``pre-train, prompt-based fine-tune'' paradigm, offering greater flexibility. Through extensive experiments, the TIGPrompt demonstrates the SOTA performance and remarkable efficiency advantages.

Development and validation of an artificial intelligence model to accurately predict spinopelvic parameters

Objective. Achieving appropriate spinopelvic alignment has been shown to be associated with improved clinical symptoms. However, measurement of spinopelvic radiographic parameters is time-intensive and interobserver reliability is a concern. Automated measurement tools have the promise of rapid and consistent measurements, but existing tools are still limited by some degree of manual user-entry requirements. This study presents a novel artificial intelligence (AI) tool called SpinePose that automatically predicts spinopelvic parameters with high accuracy without the need for manual entry. Methods. SpinePose was trained and validated on 761 sagittal whole-spine X-rays to predict sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt (PT), pelvic incidence (PI), sacral slope (SS), lumbar lordosis (LL), T1-pelvic angle (T1PA), and L1-pelvic angle (L1PA). A separate test set of 40 X-rays was labeled by 4 reviewers, including fellowship-trained spine surgeons and a fellowship-trained radiologist with neuroradiology subspecialty certification. Median errors relative to the most senior reviewer were calculated to determine model accuracy on test images. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to assess inter-rater reliability. Results. SpinePose exhibited the following median (interquartile range) parameter errors: SVA: 2.2(2.3)mm, p=0.93; PT: 1.3(1.2){\deg}, p=0.48; SS: 1.7(2.2){\deg}, p=0.64; PI: 2.2(2.1){\deg}, p=0.24; LL: 2.6(4.0){\deg}, p=0.89; T1PA: 1.1(0.9){\deg}, p=0.42; and L1PA: 1.4(1.6){\deg}, p=0.49. Model predictions also exhibited excellent reliability at all parameters (ICC: 0.91-1.0). Conclusions. SpinePose accurately predicted spinopelvic parameters with excellent reliability comparable to fellowship-trained spine surgeons and neuroradiologists. Utilization of predictive AI tools in spinal imaging can substantially aid in patient selection and surgical planning.

Open RL Benchmark: Comprehensive Tracked Experiments for Reinforcement Learning

In many Reinforcement Learning (RL) papers, learning curves are useful indicators to measure the effectiveness of RL algorithms. However, the complete raw data of the learning curves are rarely available. As a result, it is usually necessary to reproduce the experiments from scratch, which can be time-consuming and error-prone. We present Open RL Benchmark, a set of fully tracked RL experiments, including not only the usual data such as episodic return, but also all algorithm-specific and system metrics. Open RL Benchmark is community-driven: anyone can download, use, and contribute to the data. At the time of writing, more than 25,000 runs have been tracked, for a cumulative duration of more than 8 years. Open RL Benchmark covers a wide range of RL libraries and reference implementations. Special care is taken to ensure that each experiment is precisely reproducible by providing not only the full parameters, but also the versions of the dependencies used to generate it. In addition, Open RL Benchmark comes with a command-line interface (CLI) for easy fetching and generating figures to present the results. In this document, we include two case studies to demonstrate the usefulness of Open RL Benchmark in practice. To the best of our knowledge, Open RL Benchmark is the first RL benchmark of its kind, and the authors hope that it will improve and facilitate the work of researchers in the field.

Ten Hard Problems in Artificial Intelligence We Must Get Right

We explore the AI2050 "hard problems" that block the promise of AI and cause AI risks: (1) developing general capabilities of the systems; (2) assuring the performance of AI systems and their training processes; (3) aligning system goals with human goals; (4) enabling great applications of AI in real life; (5) addressing economic disruptions; (6) ensuring the participation of all; (7) at the same time ensuring socially responsible deployment; (8) addressing any geopolitical disruptions that AI causes; (9) promoting sound governance of the technology; and (10) managing the philosophical disruptions for humans living in the age of AI. For each problem, we outline the area, identify significant recent work, and suggest ways forward. [Note: this paper reviews literature through January 2023.]

SIMPL: A Simple and Efficient Multi-agent Motion Prediction Baseline for Autonomous Driving

This paper presents a Simple and effIcient Motion Prediction baseLine (SIMPL) for autonomous vehicles. Unlike conventional agent-centric methods with high accuracy but repetitive computations and scene-centric methods with compromised accuracy and generalizability, SIMPL delivers real-time, accurate motion predictions for all relevant traffic participants. To achieve improvements in both accuracy and inference speed, we propose a compact and efficient global feature fusion module that performs directed message passing in a symmetric manner, enabling the network to forecast future motion for all road users in a single feed-forward pass and mitigating accuracy loss caused by viewpoint shifting. Additionally, we investigate the continuous trajectory parameterization using Bernstein basis polynomials in trajectory decoding, allowing evaluations of states and their higher-order derivatives at any desired time point, which is valuable for downstream planning tasks. As a strong baseline, SIMPL exhibits highly competitive performance on Argoverse 1 & 2 motion forecasting benchmarks compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, its lightweight design and low inference latency make SIMPL highly extensible and promising for real-world onboard deployment. We open-source the code at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/SIMPL.

Modeling AoII in Push- and Pull-Based Sampling of Continuous Time Markov Chains

Age of incorrect information (AoII) has recently been proposed as an alternative to existing information freshness metrics for real-time sampling and estimation problems involving information sources that are tracked by remote monitors. Different from existing metrics, AoII penalizes the incorrect information by increasing linearly with time as long as the source and the monitor are de-synchronized, and is reset when they are synchronized back. While AoII has generally been investigated for discrete time information sources, we develop a novel analytical model in this paper for push- and pull-based sampling and transmission of a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) process. In the pull-based model, the sensor starts transmitting information on the observed CTMC only when a pull request from the monitor is received. On the other hand, in the push-based scenario, the sensor, being aware of the AoII process, samples and transmits when the AoII process exceeds a random threshold. The proposed analytical model for both scenarios is based on the construction of a discrete time MC (DTMC) making state transitions at the embedded epochs of synchronization points, using the theory of absorbing CTMCs, and in particular phase-type distributions. For a given sampling policy, analytical models to obtain the mean AoII and the average sampling rate are developed. Numerical results are presented to validate the analytical model as well as to provide insight on optimal sampling policies under sampling rate constraints.

Efficient Stagewise Pretraining via Progressive Subnetworks

Recent developments in large language models have sparked interest in efficient pretraining methods. A recent effective paradigm is to perform stage-wise training, where the size of the model is gradually increased over the course of training (e.g. gradual stacking (Reddi et al., 2023)). While the resource and wall-time savings are appealing, it has limitations, particularly the inability to evaluate the full model during earlier stages, and degradation in model quality due to smaller model capacity in the initial stages. In this work, we propose an alternative framework, progressive subnetwork training, that maintains the full model throughout training, but only trains subnetworks within the model in each step. We focus on a simple instantiation of this framework, Random Path Training (RaPTr) that only trains a sub-path of layers in each step, progressively increasing the path lengths in stages. RaPTr achieves better pre-training loss for BERT and UL2 language models while requiring 20-33% fewer FLOPs compared to standard training, and is competitive or better than other efficient training methods. Furthermore, RaPTr shows better downstream performance on UL2, improving QA tasks and SuperGLUE by 1-5% compared to standard training and stacking. Finally, we provide a theoretical basis for RaPTr to justify (a) the increasing complexity of subnetworks in stages, and (b) the stability in loss across stage transitions due to residual connections and layer norm.

Simultaneously Achieving Group Exposure Fairness and Within-Group Meritocracy in Stochastic Bandits

Existing approaches to fairness in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB) primarily focus on exposure guarantee to individual arms. When arms are naturally grouped by certain attribute(s), we propose Bi-Level Fairness, which considers two levels of fairness. At the first level, Bi-Level Fairness guarantees a certain minimum exposure to each group. To address the unbalanced allocation of pulls to individual arms within a group, we consider meritocratic fairness at the second level, which ensures that each arm is pulled according to its merit within the group. Our work shows that we can adapt a UCB-based algorithm to achieve a Bi-Level Fairness by providing (i) anytime Group Exposure Fairness guarantees and (ii) ensuring individual-level Meritocratic Fairness within each group. We first show that one can decompose regret bounds into two components: (a) regret due to anytime group exposure fairness and (b) regret due to meritocratic fairness within each group. Our proposed algorithm BF-UCB balances these two regrets optimally to achieve the upper bound of $O(\sqrt{T})$ on regret; $T$ being the stopping time. With the help of simulated experiments, we further show that BF-UCB achieves sub-linear regret; provides better group and individual exposure guarantees compared to existing algorithms; and does not result in a significant drop in reward with respect to UCB algorithm, which does not impose any fairness constraint.