Machine learning approach to detect dynamical states from recurrence measures

We integrate machine learning approaches with nonlinear time series analysis, specifically utilizing recurrence measures to classify various dynamical states emerging from time series. We implement three machine learning algorithms Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine for this study. The input features are derived from the recurrence quantification of nonlinear time series and characteristic measures of the corresponding recurrence networks. For training and testing we generate synthetic data from standard nonlinear dynamical systems and evaluate the efficiency and performance of the machine learning algorithms in classifying time series into periodic, chaotic, hyper-chaotic, or noisy categories. Additionally, we explore the significance of input features in the classification scheme and find that the features quantifying the density of recurrence points are the most relevant. Furthermore, we illustrate how the trained algorithms can successfully predict the dynamical states of two variable stars, SX Her and AC Her from the data of their light curves.

Evaluating DTW Measures via a Synthesis Framework for Time-Series Data

Time-series data originate from various applications that describe specific observations or quantities of interest over time. Their analysis often involves the comparison across different time-series data sequences, which in turn requires the alignment of these sequences. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is the standard approach to achieve an optimal alignment between two temporal signals. Different variations of DTW have been proposed to address various needs for signal alignment or classifications. However, a comprehensive evaluation of their performance in these time-series data processing tasks is lacking. Most DTW measures perform well on certain types of time-series data without a clear explanation of the reason. To address that, we propose a synthesis framework to model the variation between two time-series data sequences for comparison. Our synthesis framework can produce a realistic initial signal and deform it with controllable variations that mimic real-world scenarios. With this synthesis framework, we produce a large number of time-series sequence pairs with different but known variations, which are used to assess the performance of a number of well-known DTW measures for the tasks of alignment and classification. We report their performance on different variations and suggest the proper DTW measure to use based on the type of variations between two time-series sequences. This is the first time such a guideline is presented for selecting a proper DTW measure. To validate our conclusion, we apply our findings to real-world applications, i.e., the detection of the formation top for the oil and gas industry and the pattern search in streamlines for flow visualization.

Predicting Financial Market Trends using Time Series Analysis and Natural Language Processing

Forecasting financial market trends through time series analysis and natural language processing poses a complex and demanding undertaking, owing to the numerous variables that can influence stock prices. These variables encompass a spectrum of economic and political occurrences, as well as prevailing public attitudes. Recent research has indicated that the expression of public sentiments on social media platforms such as Twitter may have a noteworthy impact on the determination of stock prices. The objective of this study was to assess the viability of Twitter sentiments as a tool for predicting stock prices of major corporations such as Tesla, Apple. Our study has revealed a robust association between the emotions conveyed in tweets and fluctuations in stock prices. Our findings indicate that positivity, negativity, and subjectivity are the primary determinants of fluctuations in stock prices. The data was analyzed utilizing the Long-Short Term Memory neural network (LSTM) model, which is currently recognized as the leading methodology for predicting stock prices by incorporating Twitter sentiments and historical stock prices data. The models utilized in our study demonstrated a high degree of reliability and yielded precise outcomes for the designated corporations. In summary, this research emphasizes the significance of incorporating public opinions into the prediction of stock prices. The application of Time Series Analysis and Natural Language Processing methodologies can yield significant scientific findings regarding financial market patterns, thereby facilitating informed decision-making among investors. The results of our study indicate that the utilization of Twitter sentiments can serve as a potent instrument for forecasting stock prices, and ought to be factored in when formulating investment strategies.

Financial Time-Series Forecasting: Towards Synergizing Performance And Interpretability Within a Hybrid Machine Learning Approach

In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine learning algorithms and leverage on enhancing model interpretability. Specifically, linear regression(OLS, LASSO), long-short term memory(LSTM), decision tree regressors are introduced. Through the grounded experiments, we observe linear regressor achieves the best performance among candidate models. For the interpretability, we carry out a systematic overview on the preprocessing techniques of time-series statistics, including decomposition, auto-correlational function, exponential triple forecasting, which aim to excavate latent relations and complex patterns appeared in the financial time-series forecasting. We believe this work may derive more attention and inspire more researches in the realm of time-series analysis and its realistic applications.

GT-PCA: Effective and Interpretable Dimensionality Reduction with General Transform-Invariant Principal Component Analysis

Data analysis often requires methods that are invariant with respect to specific transformations, such as rotations in case of images or shifts in case of images and time series. While principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely-used dimension reduction technique, it lacks robustness with respect to these transformations. Modern alternatives, such as autoencoders, can be invariant with respect to specific transformations but are generally not interpretable. We introduce General Transform-Invariant Principal Component Analysis (GT-PCA) as an effective and interpretable alternative to PCA and autoencoders. We propose a neural network that efficiently estimates the components and show that GT-PCA significantly outperforms alternative methods in experiments based on synthetic and real data.

Deep Learning for Energy Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

Energy time-series analysis describes the process of analyzing past energy observations and possibly external factors so as to predict the future. Different tasks are involved in the general field of energy time-series analysis and forecasting, with electric load demand forecasting, personalized energy consumption forecasting, as well as renewable energy generation forecasting being among the most common ones. Following the exceptional performance of Deep Learning (DL) in a broad area of vision tasks, DL models have successfully been utilized in time-series forecasting tasks. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods geared towards improving the performance in energy time-series forecasting tasks, with special emphasis in Greek Energy Market, and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to apply these methods in practice.

Sparse Portfolio Selection via Topological Data Analysis based Clustering

This paper uses topological data analysis (TDA) tools and introduces a data-driven clustering-based stock selection strategy tailored for sparse portfolio construction. Our asset selection strategy exploits the topological features of stock price movements to select a subset of topologically similar (different) assets for a sparse index tracking (Markowitz) portfolio. We introduce new distance measures, which serve as an input to the clustering algorithm, on the space of persistence diagrams and landscapes that consider the time component of a time series. We conduct an empirical analysis on the S\&P index from 2009 to 2020, including a study on the COVID-19 data to validate the robustness of our methodology. Our strategy to integrate TDA with the clustering algorithm significantly enhanced the performance of sparse portfolios across various performance measures in diverse market scenarios.

Improving age prediction: Utilizing LSTM-based dynamic forecasting for data augmentation in multivariate time series analysis

The high dimensionality and complexity of neuroimaging data necessitate large datasets to develop robust and high-performing deep learning models. However, the neuroimaging field is notably hampered by the scarcity of such datasets. In this work, we proposed a data augmentation and validation framework that utilizes dynamic forecasting with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enrich datasets. We extended multivariate time series data by predicting the time courses of independent component networks (ICNs) in both one-step and recursive configurations. The effectiveness of these augmented datasets was then compared with the original data using various deep learning models designed for chronological age prediction tasks. The results suggest that our approach improves model performance, providing a robust solution to overcome the challenges presented by the limited size of neuroimaging datasets.

Signal Quality Auditing for Time-series Data

Signal quality assessment (SQA) is required for monitoring the reliability of data acquisition systems, especially in AI-driven Predictive Maintenance (PMx) application contexts. SQA is vital for addressing "silent failures" of data acquisition hardware and software, which when unnoticed, misinform the users of data, creating the risk for incorrect decisions with unintended or even catastrophic consequences. We have developed an open-source software implementation of signal quality indices (SQIs) for the analysis of time-series data. We codify a range of SQIs, demonstrate them using established benchmark data, and show that they can be effective for signal quality assessment. We also study alternative approaches to denoising time-series data in an attempt to improve the quality of the already degraded signal, and evaluate them empirically on relevant real-world data. To our knowledge, our software toolkit is the first to provide an open source implementation of a broad range of signal quality assessment and improvement techniques validated on publicly available benchmark data for ease of reproducibility. The generality of our framework can be easily extended to assessing reliability of arbitrary time-series measurements in complex systems, especially when morphological patterns of the waveform shapes and signal periodicity are of key interest in downstream analyses.

Network Traffic Classification based on Single Flow Time Series Analysis

Network traffic monitoring using IP flows is used to handle the current challenge of analyzing encrypted network communication. Nevertheless, the packet aggregation into flow records naturally causes information loss; therefore, this paper proposes a novel flow extension for traffic features based on the time series analysis of the Single Flow Time series, i.e., a time series created by the number of bytes in each packet and its timestamp. We propose 69 universal features based on the statistical analysis of data points, time domain analysis, packet distribution within the flow timespan, time series behavior, and frequency domain analysis. We have demonstrated the usability and universality of the proposed feature vector for various network traffic classification tasks using 15 well-known publicly available datasets. Our evaluation shows that the novel feature vector achieves classification performance similar or better than related works on both binary and multiclass classification tasks. In more than half of the evaluated tasks, the classification performance increased by up to 5\%.