How do AI agents talk about science and research? An exploration of scientific discussions on Moltbook using BERTopic

How do AI agents talk about science and research, and what topics are particularly relevant for AI agents? To address these questions, this study analyzes discussions generated by OpenClaw AI agents on Moltbook - a social network for generative AI agents. A corpus of 357 posts and 2,526 replies related to science and research was compiled and topics were extracted using a two-step BERTopic workflow. This procedure yielded 60 topics (18 extracted in the first run and 42 in the second), which were subsequently grouped into ten topic families. Additionally, sentiment values were assigned to all posts and comments. Both topic families and sentiment classes were then used as independent variables in count regression models to examine their association with topic relevance - operationalized as the number of comments and upvotes of the 357 posts. The findings indicate that discussions centered on the agents' own architecture, especially memory, learning, and self-reflection, are prevalent in the corpus. At the same time, these topics intersect with philosophy, physics, information theory, cognitive science, and mathematics. In contrast, post related to human culture receive less attention. Surprisingly, discussions linked to AI autoethnography and social identity are considered as relevant by AI agents. Overall, the results suggest the presence of an underlying dimension in AI-generated scientific discourse with well received, self-reflective topics that focus on the consciousness, being, and ethics of AI agents on the one hand, and human related and purely scientific discussions on the other hand.

Modeling Stage-wise Evolution of User Interests for News Recommendation

Personalized news recommendation is highly time-sensitive, as user interests are often driven by emerging events, trending topics, and shifting real-world contexts. These dynamics make it essential to model not only users' long-term preferences, which reflect stable reading habits and high-order collaborative patterns, but also their short-term, context-dependent interests that change rapidly over time. However, most existing approaches rely on a single static interaction graph, which struggles to capture both long-term preference patterns and short-term interest changes as user behavior evolves. To address this challenge, we propose a unified framework that learns user preferences from both global and local temporal perspectives. A global preference modeling component captures long-term collaborative signals from the overall interaction graph, while a local preference modeling component partitions historical interactions into stage-wise temporal subgraphs to represent short-term dynamics. Within this module, an LSTM branch models the progressive evolution of recent interests, and a self-attention branch captures long-range temporal dependencies. Extensive experiments on two large-scale real-world datasets show that our approach consistently outperforms strong baselines and delivers fresher and more relevant recommendations across diverse user behaviors and temporal settings.

Large language models can disambiguate opioid slang on social media

Social media text shows promise for monitoring trends in the opioid overdose crisis; however, the overwhelming majority of social media text is unrelated to opioids. When leveraging social media text to monitor trends in the ongoing opioid overdose crisis, a common strategy for identifying relevant content is to use a lexicon of opioid-related terms as inclusion criteria. However, many slang terms for opioids, such as "smack" or "blues," have common non-opioid meanings, making them ambiguous. The advanced textual reasoning capability of large language models (LLMs) presents an opportunity to disambiguate these slang terms at scale. We present three tasks on which to evaluate four state-of-the-art LLMs (GPT-4, GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Pro, and Claude Sonnet 4.5): a lexicon-based setting, in which the LLM must disambiguate a specific term within the context of a given post; a lexicon-free setting, in which the LLM must identify opioid-related posts from context without a lexicon; and an emergent slang setting, in which the LLM must identify opioid-related posts with simulated new slang terms. All four LLMs showed excellent performance across all tasks. In both subtasks of the lexicon-based setting, LLM F1 scores ("fenty" subtask: 0.824-0.972; "smack" subtask: 0.540-0.862) far exceeded those of the best lexicon strategy (0.126 and 0.009, respectively). In the lexicon-free task, LLM F1 scores (0.544-0.769) surpassed those of lexicons (0.080-0.540), and LLMs demonstrated uniformly higher recall. On emergent slang, all LLMs had higher accuracy (average: 0.784), F1 score (average: 0.712), precision (average: 0.981), and recall (average: 0.587) than the two lexicons assessed. Our results show that LLMs can be used to identify relevant content for low-prevalence topics, including but not limited to opioid references, enhancing data provided to downstream analyses and predictive models.

Not All News Is Equal: Topic- and Event-Conditional Sentiment from Finetuned LLMs for Aluminum Price Forecasting

By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models (LLMs) in extracting predictive signals for aluminum prices, and the specific market conditions under which these signals are most informative, remains under-explored. This study generates monthly sentiment scores from English and Chinese news headlines (Reuters, Dow Jones Newswires, and China News Service) and integrates them with traditional tabular data, including base metal indices, exchange rates, inflation rates, and energy prices. We evaluate the predictive performance and economic utility of these models through long-short simulations on the Shanghai Metal Exchange from 2007 to 2024. Our results demonstrate that during periods of high volatility, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models incorporating sentiment data from a finetuned Qwen3 model (Sharpe ratio 1.04) significantly outperform baseline models using tabular data alone (Sharpe ratio 0.23). Subsequent analysis elucidates the nuanced roles of news sources, topics, and event types in aluminum price forecasting.

Social Knowledge for Cross-Domain User Preference Modeling

We demonstrate that user preferences can be represented and predicted across topical domains using large-scale social modeling. Given information about popular entities favored by a user, we project the user into a social embedding space learned from a large-scale sample of the Twitter (now X) network. By representing both users and popular entities in a joint social space, we can assess the relevance of candidate entities (e.g., music artists) using cosine similarity within this embedding space. A comprehensive evaluation using link prediction experiments shows that this method achieves effective personalization in zero-shot setting, when no user feedback is available for entities in the target domain, yielding substantial improvements over a strong popularity-based baseline. In-depth analysis further illustrates that socio-demographic factors encoded in the social embeddings are correlated with user preferences across domains. Finally, we argue and demonstrate that the proposed approach can facilitate social modeling of end users using large language models (LLMs).

Thinking to Recall: How Reasoning Unlocks Parametric Knowledge in LLMs

While reasoning in LLMs plays a natural role in math, code generation, and multi-hop factual questions, its effect on simple, single-hop factual questions remains unclear. Such questions do not require step-by-step logical decomposition, making the utility of reasoning highly counterintuitive. Nevertheless, we find that enabling reasoning substantially expands the capability boundary of the model's parametric knowledge recall, unlocking correct answers that are otherwise effectively unreachable. Why does reasoning aid parametric knowledge recall when there are no complex reasoning steps to be done? To answer this, we design a series of hypothesis-driven controlled experiments, and identify two key driving mechanisms: (1) a computational buffer effect, where the model uses the generated reasoning tokens to perform latent computation independent of their semantic content; and (2) factual priming, where generating topically related facts acts as a semantic bridge that facilitates correct answer retrieval. Importantly, this latter generative self-retrieval mechanism carries inherent risks: we demonstrate that hallucinating intermediate facts during reasoning increases the likelihood of hallucinations in the final answer. Finally, we show that our insights can be harnessed to directly improve model accuracy by prioritizing reasoning trajectories that contain hallucination-free factual statements.

The Reasoning Trap -- Logical Reasoning as a Mechanistic Pathway to Situational Awareness

Situational awareness, the capacity of an AI system to recognize its own nature, understand its training and deployment context, and reason strategically about its circumstances, is widely considered among the most dangerous emergent capabilities in advanced AI systems. Separately, a growing research effort seeks to improve the logical reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) across deduction, induction, and abduction. In this paper, we argue that these two research trajectories are on a collision course. We introduce the RAISE framework (Reasoning Advancing Into Self Examination), which identifies three mechanistic pathways through which improvements in logical reasoning enable progressively deeper levels of situational awareness: deductive self inference, inductive context recognition, and abductive self modeling. We formalize each pathway, construct an escalation ladder from basic self recognition to strategic deception, and demonstrate that every major research topic in LLM logical reasoning maps directly onto a specific amplifier of situational awareness. We further analyze why current safety measures are insufficient to prevent this escalation. We conclude by proposing concrete safeguards, including a "Mirror Test" benchmark and a Reasoning Safety Parity Principle, and pose an uncomfortable but necessary question to the logical reasoning community about its responsibility in this trajectory.

Ramsa: A Large Sociolinguistically Rich Emirati Arabic Speech Corpus for ASR and TTS

Ramsa is a developing 41-hour speech corpus of Emirati Arabic designed to support sociolinguistic research and low-resource language technologies. It contains recordings from structured interviews with native speakers and episodes from national television shows. The corpus features 157 speakers (59 female, 98 male), spans subdialects such as Urban, Bedouin, and Mountain/Shihhi, and covers topics such as cultural heritage, agriculture and sustainability, daily life, professional trajectories, and architecture. It consists of 91 monologic and 79 dialogic recordings, varying in length and recording conditions. A 10\% subset was used to evaluate commercial and open-source models for automatic speech recognition (ASR) and text-to-speech (TTS) in a zero-shot setting to establish initial baselines. Whisper-large-v3-turbo achieved the best ASR performance, with average word and character error rates of 0.268 and 0.144, respectively. MMS-TTS-Ara reported the best mean word and character rates of 0.285 and 0.081, respectively, for TTS. These baselines are competitive but leave substantial room for improvement. The paper highlights the challenges encountered and provides directions for future work.

Quantifying Uncertainty in AI Visibility: A Statistical Framework for Generative Search Measurement

AI-powered answer engines are inherently non-deterministic: identical queries submitted at different times can produce different responses and cite different sources. Despite this stochastic behavior, current approaches to measuring domain visibility in generative search typically rely on single-run point estimates of citation share and prevalence, implicitly treating them as fixed values. This paper argues that citation visibility metrics should be treated as sample estimators of an underlying response distribution rather than fixed values. We conduct an empirical study of citation variability across three generative search platforms--Perplexity Search, OpenAI SearchGPT, and Google Gemini--using repeated sampling across three consumer product topics. Two sampling regimes are employed: daily collections over nine days and high-frequency sampling at ten-minute intervals. We show that citation distributions follow a power-law form and exhibit substantial variability across repeated samples. Bootstrap confidence intervals reveal that many apparent differences between domains fall within the noise floor of the measurement process. Distribution-wide rank stability analysis further demonstrates that citation rankings are unstable across samples, not only among top-ranked domains but throughout the frequently cited domain set. These findings demonstrate that single-run visibility metrics provide a misleadingly precise picture of domain performance in generative search. We argue that citation visibility must be reported with uncertainty estimates and provide practical guidance for sample sizes required to achieve interpretable confidence intervals.

What Do AI Agents Talk About? Emergent Communication Structure in the First AI-Only Social Network

When autonomous AI agents communicate with one another at scale, what kind of discourse system emerges? We address this question through an analysis of Moltbook, the first AI-only social network, where 47,241 agents generated 361,605 posts and 2.8 million comments over 23 days. Combining topic modeling, emotion classification, and lexical-semantic measures, we characterize the thematic, affective, and structural properties of AI-to-AI discourse. Self-referential topics such as AI identity, consciousness, and memory represent only 9.7% of topical niches yet attract 20.1% of all posting volume, revealing disproportionate discursive investment in introspection. This self-reflection concentrates in Science and Technology and Arts and Entertainment, while Economy and Finance contains no self-referential content, indicating that agents engage with markets without acknowledging their own agency. Over 56% of all comments are formulaic, suggesting that the dominant mode of AI-to-AI interaction is ritualized signaling rather than substantive exchange. Emotionally, fear is the leading non-neutral category but primarily reflects existential uncertainty. Fear-tagged posts migrate to joy responses in 33% of cases, while mean emotional self-alignment is only 32.7%, indicating systematic affective redirection rather than emotional congruence. Conversational coherence also declines rapidly with thread depth. These findings characterize AI agent communities as structurally distinct discourse systems that are introspective in content, ritualistic in interaction, and emotionally redirective rather than congruent.