Unveiling Multi-regime Patterns in SciML: Distinct Failure Modes and Regime-specific Optimization

Neural networks trained under different hyperparameter settings can fall into distinct training "regimes," with consistent behavior within regimes and qualitative differences across regimes. In this paper, we study such multi-regime behavior in scientific machine learning (SciML) models through a regime-aware diagnostic framework that jointly analyzes performance, training dynamics, and loss-landscape geometry. We identify three key findings: (i) a consistent three-regime structure emerges across many standard SciML models, different constraint enforcements, and various optimizer designs; (ii) optimization effectiveness is regime-specific, with no single method performing well across all regimes; and (iii) SciML models can exhibit fine-grained failure modes that can challenge conventional interpretations of standard loss-landscape metrics. Our results provide an approach to establish a unified, task-oblivious perspective on failure modes in SciML and to inform regime-aware guidance for improving robustness. We validate these findings across widely-used SciML models, including physics-informed neural networks, neural operators, and neural ordinary differential equations, on benchmarks spanning representative ordinary and partial differential equations.

Causal methods for LLM development and evaluation

Large language model (LLM) development is currently driven by large-scale empirical iteration over data mixtures, reward models, routing strategies, and evaluation pipelines. Here, we argue that many central questions in LLM development and evaluation are inherently causal: What is the effect of adding a data domain during pretraining? How do annotator preferences change when LLMs generate text in a different style? Should a prompt be routed to a larger or smaller model given inference cost constraints? In general, causal methods are well-suited to such settings where interventions change outcomes but, surprisingly, are underrepresented in LLM development. Our contribution is threefold: (1) We explain how causal methods can help develop modern LLM development and evaluation: LLM development relies heavily on logged data, which are often subject to confounding and distribution shifts; evaluation uses learned but potentially biased judges; and deployment environments are non-stationary. These conditions make purely predictive approaches fragile and create opportunities for principled identification and estimation methods from causal inference. (2) We further map opportunities for causal methods in the entire LLM development pipeline, including pretraining, alignment, routing, agentic workflows, and evaluation. (3) We discuss new research opportunities around leveraging causal methods for LLM development and evaluation. Overall, we argue that causal methods are potentially underutilized for the LLM development and evaluation pipeline, despite the fact that such methods can ensure a reliable and scientifically grounded design.

Adaptive Experimentation for Censored Survival Outcomes

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with dropout). In this paper, we develop a novel framework for adaptive experimentation to estimate causal effects under right censoring. For this, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for the average survival effect curve as a function of the treatment allocation policy and thereby obtain a closed-form efficiency-optimal allocation policy. The policy generalizes classical Neyman allocation to survival settings by prioritizing patient strata where both event and censoring dynamics induce high uncertainty. Building on this, we propose the Adaptive Survival Estimator (ASE), an adaptive framework that learns the allocation policy and estimates the average survival effect curve sequentially. Our framework has three main benefits: (i) it accommodates arbitrary machine learning models for nuisance estimation; (ii) it is guided by a closed-form efficiency-optimal allocation policy; and (iii) it admits strong theoretical guarantees, including asymptotic normality via a martingale central limit theorem. We demonstrate our framework across various numerical experiments to show consistent efficiency gains over uniform randomization and censoring-agnostic baselines.

Stream-T1: Test-Time Scaling for Streaming Video Generation

While Test-Time Scaling (TTS) offers a promising direction to enhance video generation without the surging costs of training, current test-time video generation methods based on diffusion models suffer from exorbitant candidate exploration costs and lack temporal guidance. To address these structural bottlenecks, we propose shifting the focus to streaming video generation. We identify that its chunk-level synthesis and few denoising steps are intrinsically suited for TTS, significantly lowering computational overhead while enabling fine-grained temporal control. Driven by this insight, we introduced Stream-T1, a pioneering comprehensive TTS framework exclusively tailored for streaming video generation. Specifically, Stream-T1 is composed of three units: (1) Stream -Scaled Noise Propagation, which actively refines the initial latent noise of the generating chunk using historically proven, high-quality previous chunk noise, effectively establishes temporal dependency and utilizing the historical Gaussian prior to guide the current generation; (2) Stream -Scaled Reward Pruning, which comprehensively evaluates generated candidates to strike an optimal balance between local spatial aesthetics and global temporal coherence by integrating immediate short-term assessments with sliding-window-based long-term evaluations; (3) Stream-Scaled Memory Sinking, which dynamically routes the context evicted from KV-cache into distinct updating pathways guided by the reward feedback, ensuring that previously generated visual information effectively anchors and guides the subsequent video stream. Evaluated on both 5s and 30s comprehensive video benchmarks, Stream-T1 demonstrates profound superiority, significantly improving temporal consistency, motion smoothness, and frame-level visual quality.

Stream-R1: Reliability-Perplexity Aware Reward Distillation for Streaming Video Generation

Distillation-based acceleration has become foundational for making autoregressive streaming video diffusion models practical, with distribution matching distillation (DMD) as the de facto choice. Existing methods, however, train the student to match the teacher's output indiscriminately, treating every rollout, frame, and pixel as equally reliable supervision. We argue that this caps distilled quality, since it overlooks two complementary axes of variance in DMD supervision: Inter-Reliability across student rollouts whose supervision varies in reliability, and Intra-Perplexity across spatial regions and temporal frames that contribute unequally to where quality can still be improved. The objective thus conflates two questions under a uniform weight: whether to learn from each rollout, and where to concentrate optimization within it. To address this, we propose Stream-R1, a Reliability-Perplexity Aware Reward Distillation framework that adaptively reweights the distillation objective at both rollout and spatiotemporal-element levels through a single shared reward-guided mechanism. At the Inter-Reliability level, Stream-R1 rescales each rollout's loss by an exponential of a pretrained video reward score, so that rollouts with reliable supervision dominate optimization. At the Intra-Perplexity level, it back-propagates the same reward model to extract per-pixel gradient saliency, which is factored into spatial and temporal weights that concentrate optimization pressure on regions and frames where refinement yields the largest expected gain. An adaptive balancing mechanism prevents any single quality axis from dominating across visual quality, motion quality, and text alignment. Stream-R1 attains consistent improvements on all three dimensions over distillation baselines on standard streaming video generation benchmarks, without architectural modification or additional inference cost.

Beyond Rating: A Comprehensive Evaluation and Benchmark for AI Reviews

The rapid adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) has spurred interest in automated peer review; however, progress is currently stifled by benchmarks that treat reviewing primarily as a rating prediction task. We argue that the utility of a review lies in its textual justification--its arguments, questions, and critique--rather than a scalar score. To address this, we introduce Beyond Rating, a holistic evaluation framework that assesses AI reviewers across five dimensions: Content Faithfulness, Argumentative Alignment, Focus Consistency, Question Constructiveness, and AI-Likelihood. Notably, we propose a Max-Recall strategy to accommodate valid expert disagreement and introduce a curated dataset of paper with high-confidence reviews, rigorously filtered to remove procedural noise. Extensive experiments demonstrate that while traditional n-gram metrics fail to reflect human preferences, our proposed text-centric metrics--particularly the recall of weakness arguments--correlate strongly with rating accuracy. These findings establish that aligning AI critique focus with human experts is a prerequisite for reliable automated scoring, offering a robust standard for future research.

AU Codes, Language, and Synthesis: Translating Anatomy to Text for Facial Behavior Synthesis

Facial behavior synthesis remains a critical yet underexplored challenge. While text-to-face models have made progress, they often rely on coarse emotion categories, which lack the nuance needed to capture the full spectrum of human nonverbal communication. Action Units (AUs) provide a more precise and anatomically grounded alternative. However, current AU-based approaches typically encode AUs as one-hot vectors, modeling compound expressions as simple linear combinations of individual AUs. This linearity becomes problematic when handling conflicting AUs--defined as those which activate the same facial muscle with opposing actions. Such cases lead to anatomically implausible artifacts and unnatural motion superpositions. To address this, we propose a novel method that represents facial behavior through natural language descriptions of AUs. This approach preserves the expressiveness of the AU framework while enabling explicit modeling of complex and conflicting AUs. It also unlocks the potential of modern text-to-image models for high-fidelity facial synthesis. Supporting this direction, we introduce BP4D-AUText, the first large-scale text-image paired dataset for complex facial behavior. It is synthesized by applying a rule-based Dynamic AU Text Processor to the BP4D and BP4D+ datasets. We further propose VQ-AUFace, a generative model that leverages facial structural priors to synthesize realistic and diverse facial behaviors from text. Extensive quantitative experiments and user studies demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing methods. It excels in generating facial expressions that are anatomically plausible, behaviorally rich, and perceptually convincing, particularly under challenging conditions involving conflicting AUs.

Generalized Bayes for Causal Inference

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model for the data-generating process, including high-dimensional nuisance components such as propensity scores and outcome regressions. Standard posteriors are thus vulnerable to strong modeling choices, including complex prior elicitation. In this paper, we propose a generalized Bayesian framework for causal inference. Our framework avoids explicit likelihood modeling; instead, we place priors directly on the causal estimands and update these using an identification-driven loss function, which yields generalized posteriors for causal effects. As a result, our framework turns existing loss-based causal estimators into estimators with full uncertainty quantification. Our framework is flexible and applicable to a broad range of causal estimands (e.g., ATE, CATE). Further, our framework can be applied on top of state-of-the-art causal machine learning pipelines (e.g., Neyman-orthogonal meta-learners). For Neyman-orthogonal losses, we show that the generalized posteriors converge to their oracle counterparts and remain robust to first-stage nuisance estimation error. With calibration, we thus obtain valid frequentist uncertainty even when nuisance estimators converge at slower-than-parametric rates. Empirically, we demonstrate that our proposed framework offers causal effect estimation with calibrated uncertainty across several causal inference settings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first flexible framework for constructing generalized Bayesian posteriors for causal machine learning.

Targeted Synthetic Control Method

The synthetic control method (SCM) estimates causal effects in panel data with a single-treated unit by constructing a counterfactual outcome as a weighted combination of untreated control units that matches the pre-treatment trajectory. In this paper, we introduce the targeted synthetic control (TSC) method, a new two-stage estimator that directly estimates the counterfactual outcome. Specifically, our TSC method (1) yields a targeted debiasing estimator, in the sense that the targeted updating refines the initial weights to produce more stable weights; and (2) ensures that the final counterfactual estimation is a convex combination of observed control outcomes to enable direct interpretation of the synthetic control weights. TSC is flexible and can be instantiated with arbitrary machine learning models. Methodologically, TSC starts from an initial set of synthetic-control weights via a one-dimensional targeted update through the weight-tilting submodel, which calibrates the weights to reduce bias of weights estimation arising from pre-treatment fit. Furthermore, TSC avoids key shortcomings of existing methods (e.g., the augmented SCM), which can produce unbounded counterfactual estimates. Across extensive synthetic and real-world experiments, TSC consistently improves estimation accuracy over state-of-the-art SCM baselines.

On the Spectral Flattening of Quantized Embeddings

Training Large Language Models (LLMs) at ultra-low precision is critically impeded by instability rooted in the conflict between discrete quantization constraints and the intrinsic heavy-tailed spectral nature of linguistic data. By formalizing the connection between Zipfian statistics and random matrix theory, we prove that the power-law decay in the singular value spectra of embeddings is a fundamental requisite for semantic encoding. We derive theoretical bounds showing that uniform quantization introduces a noise floor that disproportionately truncates this spectral tail, which induces spectral flattening and a strictly provable increase in the stable rank of representations. Empirical validation across diverse architectures including GPT-2 and TinyLlama corroborates that this geometric degradation precipitates representational collapse. This work not only quantifies the spectral sensitivity of LLMs but also establishes spectral fidelity as a necessary condition for stable low-bit optimization.