Frequency-domain MLPs are More Effective Learners in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and {superior performance}. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

P-Bench: A Multi-level Privacy Evaluation Benchmark for Language Models

The rapid development of language models (LMs) brings unprecedented accessibility and usage for both models and users. On the one hand, powerful LMs, trained with massive textual data, achieve state-of-the-art performance over numerous downstream NLP tasks. On the other hand, more and more attention is paid to unrestricted model accesses that may bring malicious privacy risks of data leakage. To address these issues, many recent works propose privacy-preserving language models (PPLMs) with differential privacy (DP). Unfortunately, different DP implementations make it challenging for a fair comparison among existing PPLMs. In this paper, we present P-Bench, a multi-perspective privacy evaluation benchmark to empirically and intuitively quantify the privacy leakage of LMs. Instead of only protecting and measuring the privacy of protected data with DP parameters, P-Bench sheds light on the neglected inference data privacy during actual usage. P-Bench first clearly defines multi-faceted privacy objectives during private fine-tuning. Then, P-Bench constructs a unified pipeline to perform private fine-tuning. Lastly, P-Bench performs existing privacy attacks on LMs with pre-defined privacy objectives as the empirical evaluation results. The empirical attack results are used to fairly and intuitively evaluate the privacy leakage of various PPLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on three datasets of GLUE for mainstream LMs.

Chain-of-Choice Hierarchical Policy Learning for Conversational Recommendation

Conversational Recommender Systems (CRS) illuminate user preferences via multi-round interactive dialogues, ultimately navigating towards precise and satisfactory recommendations. However, contemporary CRS are limited to inquiring binary or multi-choice questions based on a single attribute type (e.g., color) per round, which causes excessive rounds of interaction and diminishes the user's experience. To address this, we propose a more realistic and efficient conversational recommendation problem setting, called Multi-Type-Attribute Multi-round Conversational Recommendation (MTAMCR), which enables CRS to inquire about multi-choice questions covering multiple types of attributes in each round, thereby improving interactive efficiency. Moreover, by formulating MTAMCR as a hierarchical reinforcement learning task, we propose a Chain-of-Choice Hierarchical Policy Learning (CoCHPL) framework to enhance both the questioning efficiency and recommendation effectiveness in MTAMCR. Specifically, a long-term policy over options (i.e., ask or recommend) determines the action type, while two short-term intra-option policies sequentially generate the chain of attributes or items through multi-step reasoning and selection, optimizing the diversity and interdependence of questioning attributes. Finally, extensive experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of CoCHPL over prevailing state-of-the-art methods.

Dual-stage Flows-based Generative Modeling for Traceable Urban Planning

Urban planning, which aims to design feasible land-use configurations for target areas, has become increasingly essential due to the high-speed urbanization process in the modern era. However, the traditional urban planning conducted by human designers can be a complex and onerous task. Thanks to the advancement of deep learning algorithms, researchers have started to develop automated planning techniques. While these models have exhibited promising results, they still grapple with a couple of unresolved limitations: 1) Ignoring the relationship between urban functional zones and configurations and failing to capture the relationship among different functional zones. 2) Less interpretable and stable generation process. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel generative framework based on normalizing flows, namely Dual-stage Urban Flows (DSUF) framework. Specifically, the first stage is to utilize zone-level urban planning flows to generate urban functional zones based on given surrounding contexts and human guidance. Then we employ an Information Fusion Module to capture the relationship among functional zones and fuse the information of different aspects. The second stage is to use configuration-level urban planning flows to obtain land-use configurations derived from fused information. We design several experiments to indicate that our framework can outperform compared to other generative models for the urban planning task.

Crack-Net: Prediction of Crack Propagation in Composites

Computational solid mechanics has become an indispensable approach in engineering, and numerical investigation of fracture in composites is essential as composites are widely used in structural applications. Crack evolution in composites is the bridge to elucidate the relationship between the microstructure and fracture performance, but crack-based finite element methods are computationally expensive and time-consuming, limiting their application in computation-intensive scenarios. Here we propose a deep learning framework called Crack-Net, which incorporates the relationship between crack evolution and stress response to predict the fracture process in composites. Trained on a high-precision fracture development dataset generated using the phase field method, Crack-Net demonstrates a remarkable capability to accurately forecast the long-term evolution of crack growth patterns and the stress-strain curve for a given composite design. The Crack-Net captures the essential principle of crack growth, which enables it to handle more complex microstructures such as binary co-continuous structures. Moreover, transfer learning is adopted to further improve the generalization ability of Crack-Net for composite materials with reinforcements of different strengths. The proposed Crack-Net holds great promise for practical applications in engineering and materials science, in which accurate and efficient fracture prediction is crucial for optimizing material performance and microstructural design.

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Artificial Upwelling Energy Management

The potential of artificial upwelling (AU) as a means of lifting nutrient-rich bottom water to the surface, stimulating seaweed growth, and consequently enhancing ocean carbon sequestration, has been gaining increasing attention in recent years. This has led to the development of the first solar-powered and air-lifted AU system (AUS) in China. However, efficient scheduling of air injection systems in complex marine environments remains a crucial challenge in operating AUS, as it holds the potential to significantly improve energy efficiency. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel energy management approach that utilizes deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithm to develop efficient strategies for operating AUS. Specifically, we formulate the problem of maximizing the energy efficiency of AUS as a Markov decision process and integrate the quantile network in distributional reinforcement learning (QR-DQN) with the deep dueling network to solve it. Through extensive simulations, we evaluate the performance of our algorithm and demonstrate its superior effectiveness over traditional rule-based approaches and other DRL algorithms in reducing energy wastage while ensuring the stable and efficient operation of AUS. Our findings suggest that a DRL-based approach offers a promising way to improve the energy efficiency of AUS and enhance the sustainability of seaweed cultivation and carbon sequestration in the ocean.

Multi-step Jailbreaking Privacy Attacks on ChatGPT

With the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs), many downstream NLP tasks can be well solved given good prompts. Though model developers and researchers work hard on dialog safety to avoid generating harmful content from LLMs, it is still challenging to steer AI-generated content (AIGC) for the human good. As powerful LLMs are devouring existing text data from various domains (e.g., GPT-3 is trained on 45TB texts), it is natural to doubt whether the private information is included in the training data and what privacy threats can these LLMs and their downstream applications bring. In this paper, we study the privacy threats from OpenAI's model APIs and New Bing enhanced by ChatGPT and show that application-integrated LLMs may cause more severe privacy threats ever than before. To this end, we conduct extensive experiments to support our claims and discuss LLMs' privacy implications.

Dish-TS: A General Paradigm for Alleviating Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting

The distribution shift in Time Series Forecasting (TSF), indicating series distribution changes over time, largely hinders the performance of TSF models. Existing works towards distribution shift in time series are mostly limited in the quantification of distribution and, more importantly, overlook the potential shift between lookback and horizon windows. To address above challenges, we systematically summarize the distribution shift in TSF into two categories. Regarding lookback windows as input-space and horizon windows as output-space, there exist (i) intra-space shift, that the distribution within the input-space keeps shifted over time, and (ii) inter-space shift, that the distribution is shifted between input-space and output-space. Then we introduce, Dish-TS, a general neural paradigm for alleviating distribution shift in TSF. Specifically, for better distribution estimation, we propose the coefficient net (CONET), which can be any neural architectures, to map input sequences into learnable distribution coefficients. To relieve intra-space and inter-space shift, we organize Dish-TS as a Dual-CONET framework to separately learn the distribution of input- and output-space, which naturally captures the distribution difference of two spaces. In addition, we introduce a more effective training strategy for intractable CONET learning. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on several datasets coupled with different state-of-the-art forecasting models. Experimental results show Dish-TS consistently boosts them with a more than 20% average improvement. Code is available.

Approximate message passing from random initialization with applications to $\mathbb{Z}_{2}$ synchronization

This paper is concerned with the problem of reconstructing an unknown rank-one matrix with prior structural information from noisy observations. While computing the Bayes-optimal estimator seems intractable in general due to its nonconvex nature, Approximate Message Passing (AMP) emerges as an efficient first-order method to approximate the Bayes-optimal estimator. However, the theoretical underpinnings of AMP remain largely unavailable when it starts from random initialization, a scheme of critical practical utility. Focusing on a prototypical model called $\mathbb{Z}_{2}$ synchronization, we characterize the finite-sample dynamics of AMP from random initialization, uncovering its rapid global convergence. Our theory provides the first non-asymptotic characterization of AMP in this model without requiring either an informative initialization (e.g., spectral initialization) or sample splitting.