Prospect Theory Fails for LLMs: Revealing Instability of Decision-Making under Epistemic Uncertainty

Prospect Theory (PT) models human decision-making under uncertainty, while epistemic markers (e.g., maybe) serve to express uncertainty in language. However, it remains largely unexplored whether Prospect Theory applies to contemporary Large Language Models and whether epistemic markers, which express human uncertainty, affect their decision-making behaviour. To address these research gaps, we design a three-stage experiment based on economic questionnaires. We propose a more general and precise evaluation framework to model LLMs' decision-making behaviour under PT, introducing uncertainty through the empirical probability values associated with commonly used epistemic markers in comparable contexts. We then incorporate epistemic markers into the evaluation framework based on their corresponding probability values to examine their influence on LLM decision-making behaviours. Our findings suggest that modelling LLMs' decision-making with PT is not consistently reliable, particularly when uncertainty is expressed in diverse linguistic forms. Our code is released in https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/MarPT.

SessionIntentBench: A Multi-task Inter-session Intention-shift Modeling Benchmark for E-commerce Customer Behavior Understanding

Session history is a common way of recording user interacting behaviors throughout a browsing activity with multiple products. For example, if an user clicks a product webpage and then leaves, it might because there are certain features that don't satisfy the user, which serve as an important indicator of on-the-spot user preferences. However, all prior works fail to capture and model customer intention effectively because insufficient information exploitation and only apparent information like descriptions and titles are used. There is also a lack of data and corresponding benchmark for explicitly modeling intention in E-commerce product purchase sessions. To address these issues, we introduce the concept of an intention tree and propose a dataset curation pipeline. Together, we construct a sibling multimodal benchmark, SessionIntentBench, that evaluates L(V)LMs' capability on understanding inter-session intention shift with four subtasks. With 1,952,177 intention entries, 1,132,145 session intention trajectories, and 13,003,664 available tasks mined using 10,905 sessions, we provide a scalable way to exploit the existing session data for customer intention understanding. We conduct human annotations to collect ground-truth label for a subset of collected data to form an evaluation gold set. Extensive experiments on the annotated data further confirm that current L(V)LMs fail to capture and utilize the intention across the complex session setting. Further analysis show injecting intention enhances LLMs' performances.

Revisiting Epistemic Markers in Confidence Estimation: Can Markers Accurately Reflect Large Language Models' Uncertainty?

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, accurately assessing their confidence is crucial. Humans typically express confidence through epistemic markers (e.g., "fairly confident") instead of numerical values. However, it remains unclear whether LLMs consistently use these markers to reflect their intrinsic confidence due to the difficulty of quantifying uncertainty associated with various markers. To address this gap, we first define marker confidence as the observed accuracy when a model employs an epistemic marker. We evaluate its stability across multiple question-answering datasets in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings for open-source and proprietary LLMs. Our results show that while markers generalize well within the same distribution, their confidence is inconsistent in out-of-distribution scenarios. These findings raise significant concerns about the reliability of epistemic markers for confidence estimation, underscoring the need for improved alignment between marker based confidence and actual model uncertainty. Our code is available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/MarCon.

INFERENCEDYNAMICS: Efficient Routing Across LLMs through Structured Capability and Knowledge Profiling

Large Language Model (LLM) routing is a pivotal technique for navigating a diverse landscape of LLMs, aiming to select the best-performing LLMs tailored to the domains of user queries, while managing computational resources. However, current routing approaches often face limitations in scalability when dealing with a large pool of specialized LLMs, or in their adaptability to extending model scope and evolving capability domains. To overcome those challenges, we propose InferenceDynamics, a flexible and scalable multi-dimensional routing framework by modeling the capability and knowledge of models. We operate it on our comprehensive dataset RouteMix, and demonstrate its effectiveness and generalizability in group-level routing using modern benchmarks including MMLU-Pro, GPQA, BigGenBench, and LiveBench, showcasing its ability to identify and leverage top-performing models for given tasks, leading to superior outcomes with efficient resource utilization. The broader adoption of Inference Dynamics can empower users to harness the full specialized potential of the LLM ecosystem, and our code will be made publicly available to encourage further research.

EcomScriptBench: A Multi-task Benchmark for E-commerce Script Planning via Step-wise Intention-Driven Product Association

Goal-oriented script planning, or the ability to devise coherent sequences of actions toward specific goals, is commonly employed by humans to plan for typical activities. In e-commerce, customers increasingly seek LLM-based assistants to generate scripts and recommend products at each step, thereby facilitating convenient and efficient shopping experiences. However, this capability remains underexplored due to several challenges, including the inability of LLMs to simultaneously conduct script planning and product retrieval, difficulties in matching products caused by semantic discrepancies between planned actions and search queries, and a lack of methods and benchmark data for evaluation. In this paper, we step forward by formally defining the task of E-commerce Script Planning (EcomScript) as three sequential subtasks. We propose a novel framework that enables the scalable generation of product-enriched scripts by associating products with each step based on the semantic similarity between the actions and their purchase intentions. By applying our framework to real-world e-commerce data, we construct the very first large-scale EcomScript dataset, EcomScriptBench, which includes 605,229 scripts sourced from 2.4 million products. Human annotations are then conducted to provide gold labels for a sampled subset, forming an evaluation benchmark. Extensive experiments reveal that current (L)LMs face significant challenges with EcomScript tasks, even after fine-tuning, while injecting product purchase intentions improves their performance.

Legal Rule Induction: Towards Generalizable Principle Discovery from Analogous Judicial Precedents

Legal rules encompass not only codified statutes but also implicit adjudicatory principles derived from precedents that contain discretionary norms, social morality, and policy. While computational legal research has advanced in applying established rules to cases, inducing legal rules from judicial decisions remains understudied, constrained by limitations in model inference efficacy and symbolic reasoning capability. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers unprecedented opportunities for automating the extraction of such latent principles, yet progress is stymied by the absence of formal task definitions, benchmark datasets, and methodologies. To address this gap, we formalize Legal Rule Induction (LRI) as the task of deriving concise, generalizable doctrinal rules from sets of analogous precedents, distilling their shared preconditions, normative behaviors, and legal consequences. We introduce the first LRI benchmark, comprising 5,121 case sets (38,088 Chinese cases in total) for model tuning and 216 expert-annotated gold test sets. Experimental results reveal that: 1) State-of-the-art LLMs struggle with over-generalization and hallucination; 2) Training on our dataset markedly enhances LLMs capabilities in capturing nuanced rule patterns across similar cases.

From Automation to Autonomy: A Survey on Large Language Models in Scientific Discovery

Large Language Models (LLMs) are catalyzing a paradigm shift in scientific discovery, evolving from task-specific automation tools into increasingly autonomous agents and fundamentally redefining research processes and human-AI collaboration. This survey systematically charts this burgeoning field, placing a central focus on the changing roles and escalating capabilities of LLMs in science. Through the lens of the scientific method, we introduce a foundational three-level taxonomy-Tool, Analyst, and Scientist-to delineate their escalating autonomy and evolving responsibilities within the research lifecycle. We further identify pivotal challenges and future research trajectories such as robotic automation, self-improvement, and ethical governance. Overall, this survey provides a conceptual architecture and strategic foresight to navigate and shape the future of AI-driven scientific discovery, fostering both rapid innovation and responsible advancement. Github Repository: https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/Awesome-LLM-Scientific-Discovery.

Towards Multi-Agent Reasoning Systems for Collaborative Expertise Delegation: An Exploratory Design Study

Designing effective collaboration structure for multi-agent LLM systems to enhance collective reasoning is crucial yet remains under-explored. In this paper, we systematically investigate how collaborative reasoning performance is affected by three key design dimensions: (1) Expertise-Domain Alignment, (2) Collaboration Paradigm (structured workflow vs. diversity-driven integration), and (3) System Scale. Our findings reveal that expertise alignment benefits are highly domain-contingent, proving most effective for contextual reasoning tasks. Furthermore, collaboration focused on integrating diverse knowledge consistently outperforms rigid task decomposition. Finally, we empirically explore the impact of scaling the multi-agent system with expertise specialization and study the computational trade off, highlighting the need for more efficient communication protocol design. This work provides concrete guidelines for configuring specialized multi-agent system and identifies critical architectural trade-offs and bottlenecks for scalable multi-agent reasoning. The code will be made available upon acceptance.

Science Hierarchography: Hierarchical Organization of Science Literature

Scientific knowledge is growing rapidly, making it challenging to track progress and high-level conceptual links across broad disciplines. While existing tools like citation networks and search engines make it easy to access a few related papers, they fundamentally lack the flexible abstraction needed to represent the density of activity in various scientific subfields. We motivate SCIENCE HIERARCHOGRAPHY, the goal of organizing scientific literature into a high-quality hierarchical structure that allows for the categorization of scientific work across varying levels of abstraction, from very broad fields to very specific studies. Such a representation can provide insights into which fields are well-explored and which are under-explored. To achieve the goals of SCIENCE HIERARCHOGRAPHY, we develop a range of algorithms. Our primary approach combines fast embedding-based clustering with LLM-based prompting to balance the computational efficiency of embedding methods with the semantic precision offered by LLM prompting. We demonstrate that this approach offers the best trade-off between quality and speed compared to methods that heavily rely on LLM prompting, such as iterative tree construction with LLMs. To better reflect the interdisciplinary and multifaceted nature of research papers, our hierarchy captures multiple dimensions of categorization beyond simple topic labels. We evaluate the utility of our framework by assessing how effectively an LLM-based agent can locate target papers using the hierarchy. Results show that this structured approach enhances interpretability, supports trend discovery, and offers an alternative pathway for exploring scientific literature beyond traditional search methods. Code, data and demo: $\href{https://github.com/JHU-CLSP/science-hierarchography}{https://github.com/JHU-CLSP/science-hierarchography}$

Can LLMs Generate Tabular Summaries of Science Papers? Rethinking the Evaluation Protocol

Literature review tables are essential for summarizing and comparing collections of scientific papers. We explore the task of generating tables that best fulfill a user's informational needs given a collection of scientific papers. Building on recent work (Newman et al., 2024), we extend prior approaches to address real-world complexities through a combination of LLM-based methods and human annotations. Our contributions focus on three key challenges encountered in real-world use: (i) User prompts are often under-specified; (ii) Retrieved candidate papers frequently contain irrelevant content; and (iii) Task evaluation should move beyond shallow text similarity techniques and instead assess the utility of inferred tables for information-seeking tasks (e.g., comparing papers). To support reproducible evaluation, we introduce ARXIV2TABLE, a more realistic and challenging benchmark for this task, along with a novel approach to improve literature review table generation in real-world scenarios. Our extensive experiments on this benchmark show that both open-weight and proprietary LLMs struggle with the task, highlighting its difficulty and the need for further advancements. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/JHU-CLSP/arXiv2Table.