LiveHouse-TS: An Open-world Living Benchmark for Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a highly promising paradigm for cross-domain zero-shot forecasting. However, existing evaluation protocols predominantly rely on static benchmarks with fixed historical test windows. While these benchmarks provide a valuable baseline snapshot, they evaluate an average performance on a fixed history, failing to capture how models behave in continuously evolving real-world environments characterized by seasonal variations, distribution shifts, and unexpected events. To bridge this gap, we introduce LiveHouse-TS, the first open-world living benchmark infrastructure for TSFMs. By evaluating models prequentially on real future data in open-world environments, LiveHouse-TS shifts time series benchmarking from snapshot accuracy to continuous temporal validity. Rather than acting as a one-off leaderboard, our infrastructure serves as a continuous time series infrastructure designed to explore vital, long-term scientific questions: Can model rankings be maintained over the long term? Which models remain genuinely robust under distribution shifts? Extensive streaming evaluations across 11 domains with 17 datasets demonstrate that static rankings undergo a dramatic reshuffling under a live protocol.

Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting

Federated learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for spatio-temporal forecasting (STF), enabling collaborative model training without sharing raw observations. Existing federated STF methods primarily regard cross-client heterogeneity as an optimization challenge and mitigate it through personalized approaches. However, such heterogeneity fundamentally stems from diverse \emph{environmental conditions}, and these methods capture environment-specific forecasting patterns, hardly generalizing under environmental shifts. Our key insight is that the environmental diversity across federated clients should be exploited, as they provide \emph{complementary observations of the same underlying spatio-temporal system}. Based on this insight, we propose \method, a novel federated de-confounding framework that \textbf{treats clients as distinct causal environments}. \method leverages the client heterogeneity as distributed environmental evidence and learns a global prototype codebook to capture shared environmental regimes. We further derive a theoretical federated de-confounding bound that is linearly controlled by the averaged confounding strength. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \method consistently outperforms federated baselines, while providing transferable, interpretable, and communication-efficient environmental representations.

Think Before You Act: Intention-Guided Reasoning for LLM-Based Location Prediction

Predicting a user's next Point-of-Interest (POI) based on their historical check-in records is a fundamental task in location-based services. While recent methods incorporating large language models have shown strong reasoning capabilities and promising results, they typically formulate the prediction task as a one-step trajectory-to-location mapping problem, making predictions prone to shallow trajectory correlations and historical frequency bias. We argue that users rarely choose locations directly and instead, they usually first form a traveling intention and then accordingly select specific POIs. Motivated by this insight, we propose IntentPOI, a two-stage intention-guided reasoning framework. In the thinking stage, we infer users' intermediate intentions by incorporating historical mobility patterns, similar peer behaviors, and the temporal contexts. In the acting stage, we first construct a compact candidate pool, and then perform intention-guided reasoning to identify locations that best align with the inferred intention. By explicitly decoupling intention inference from location prediction, IntentPOI transforms the next POI prediction from direct trajectory matching into intention-guided reasoning. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that IntentPOI consistently outperforms eleven state-of-the-art baselines.

LifeSide: Benchmarking Agents as Lifelong Digital Companions

Lifelong digital companions must integrate cross-session cues, continually update their understanding of users, and adapt to shifting privacy boundaries. Existing evaluations fail to capture this, testing memory recall and short-term empathy in isolation. To bridge this gap, we introduce \benchmark, a benchmark centered on multi-session \textit{Memory-Emotion-Environment} loops. By modeling users as persistent worlds with layered profiles and event trajectories, \benchmark uses multi-agent simulation to project environmental dynamics into dialogue, preserving the critical gap between latent thoughts and observable expressions. Evaluating 2,000 personas and 111K tasks across memory tracking, user understanding, privacy control, and emotional companionship, our experiment results reveal a stark reality: even models that saturate current memory benchmarks fail to sustain accurate user understanding and true companionship over long horizons.

Back to Basics: Let Conversational Agents Remember with Just Retrieval and Generation

Existing conversational memory systems rely on complex hierarchical summarization or reinforcement learning to manage long-term dialogue history, yet remain vulnerable to context dilution as conversations grow. In this work, we offer a different perspective: the primary bottleneck may lie not in memory architecture, but in the \textit{Signal Sparsity Effect} within the latent knowledge manifold. Through controlled experiments, we identify two key phenomena: \textit{Decisive Evidence Sparsity}, where relevant signals become increasingly isolated with longer sessions, leading to sharp degradation in aggregation-based methods; and \textit{Dual-Level Redundancy}, where both inter-session interference and intra-session conversational filler introduce large amounts of non-informative content, hindering effective generation. Motivated by these insights, we propose \method, a minimalist framework that brings conversational memory back to basics, relying solely on retrieval and generation via Turn Isolation Retrieval (TIR) and Query-Driven Pruning (QDP). TIR replaces global aggregation with a max-activation strategy to capture turn-level signals, while QDP removes redundant sessions and conversational filler to construct a compact, high-density evidence set. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that \method achieves robust performance across diverse settings, consistently outperforming strong baselines while maintaining high efficiency in tokens and latency, establishing a new minimalist baseline for conversational memory.

Discrete Prototypical Memories for Federated Time Series Foundation Models

Leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) as federated learning (FL)-based time series foundation models offers a promising way to transfer the generalization capabilities of LLMs to time series data while preserving access to private data. However, the semantic misalignment between time-series data and the text-centric latent space of existing LLMs often leads to degraded performance. Meanwhile, the parameter-sharing mechanism in existing FL methods model heterogeneous cross-domain time-series data into a unified continuous latent space, which contradicts the fact that time-series semantics frequently manifest as discrete and recurring regimes. To address these limitations, we propose \textsc{FeDPM}, a federated framework for time-series foundation models based on discrete prototypical memories. Specifically, we learn local prototypical memory priors for intra-domain time-series data. We then align cross-domain memories to promote a unified discrete latent space and introduce a domain-specific memory update mechanism to balance shared and personalized prototypical knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of \textsc{FeDPM}. The code is publicly available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FedUnit-64D1.

TS-Memory: Plug-and-Play Memory for Time Series Foundation Models

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong zero-shot forecasting through large-scale pre-training, but adapting them to downstream domains under distribution shift remains challenging. Existing solutions face a trade-off: Parametric Adaptation can cause catastrophic forgetting and requires costly multi-domain maintenance, while Non-Parametric Retrieval improves forecasts but incurs high inference latency due to datastore search. We propose Parametric Memory Distillation and implement it as TS-Memory, a lightweight memory adapter that augments frozen TSFMs. TS-Memory is trained in two stages. First, we construct an offline, leakage-safe kNN teacher that synthesizes confidence-aware quantile targets from retrieved futures. Second, we distill this retrieval-induced distributional correction into a lightweight memory adapter via confidence-gated supervision. During inference, TS-Memory fuses memory and backbone predictions with constant-time overhead, enabling retrieval-free deployment. Experiments across diverse TSFMs and benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both point and probabilistic forecasting over representative adaptation methods, with efficiency comparable to the frozen backbone.

Rationale-Grounded In-Context Learning for Time Series Reasoning with Multimodal Large Language Models

The underperformance of existing multimodal large language models for time series reasoning lies in the absence of rationale priors that connect temporal observations to their downstream outcomes, which leads models to rely on superficial pattern matching rather than principled reasoning. We therefore propose the rationale-grounded in-context learning for time series reasoning, where rationales work as guiding reasoning units rather than post-hoc explanations, and develop the RationaleTS method. Specifically, we firstly induce label-conditioned rationales, composed of reasoning paths from observable evidence to the potential outcomes. Then, we design the hybrid retrieval by balancing temporal patterns and semantic contexts to retrieve correlated rationale priors for the final in-context inference on new samples. We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed RationaleTS on three-domain time series reasoning tasks. We will release our code for reproduction.

AnyDepth: Depth Estimation Made Easy

Monocular depth estimation aims to recover the depth information of 3D scenes from 2D images. Recent work has made significant progress, but its reliance on large-scale datasets and complex decoders has limited its efficiency and generalization ability. In this paper, we propose a lightweight and data-centric framework for zero-shot monocular depth estimation. We first adopt DINOv3 as the visual encoder to obtain high-quality dense features. Secondly, to address the inherent drawbacks of the complex structure of the DPT, we design the Simple Depth Transformer (SDT), a compact transformer-based decoder. Compared to the DPT, it uses a single-path feature fusion and upsampling process to reduce the computational overhead of cross-scale feature fusion, achieving higher accuracy while reducing the number of parameters by approximately 85%-89%. Furthermore, we propose a quality-based filtering strategy to filter out harmful samples, thereby reducing dataset size while improving overall training quality. Extensive experiments on five benchmarks demonstrate that our framework surpasses the DPT in accuracy. This work highlights the importance of balancing model design and data quality for achieving efficient and generalizable zero-shot depth estimation. Code: https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/AnyDepth. Website: https://aigeeksgroup.github.io/AnyDepth.

Augur: Modeling Covariate Causal Associations in Time Series via Large Language Models

Large language models (LLM) have emerged as a promising avenue for time series forecasting, offering the potential to integrate multimodal data. However, existing LLM-based approaches face notable limitations-such as marginalized role in model architectures, reliance on coarse statistical text prompts, and lack of interpretability. In this work, we introduce Augur, a fully LLM driven time series forecasting framework that exploits LLM causal reasoning to discover and use directed causal associations among covariates. Augur uses a two stage teacher student architecture where a powerful teacher LLM infers a directed causal graph from time series using heuristic search together with pairwise causality testing. A lightweight student agent then refines the graph and fine tune on high confidence causal associations that are encoded as rich textual prompts to perform forecasting. This design improves predictive accuracy while yielding transparent, traceable reasoning about variable interactions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with 25 baselines demonstrate that Augur achieves competitive performance and robust zero-shot generalization.