Towards Fair Graph Federated Learning via Incentive Mechanisms

Graph federated learning (FL) has emerged as a pivotal paradigm enabling multiple agents to collaboratively train a graph model while preserving local data privacy. Yet, current efforts overlook a key issue: agents are self-interested and would hesitant to share data without fair and satisfactory incentives. This paper is the first endeavor to address this issue by studying the incentive mechanism for graph federated learning. We identify a unique phenomenon in graph federated learning: the presence of agents posing potential harm to the federation and agents contributing with delays. This stands in contrast to previous FL incentive mechanisms that assume all agents contribute positively and in a timely manner. In view of this, this paper presents a novel incentive mechanism tailored for fair graph federated learning, integrating incentives derived from both model gradient and payoff. To achieve this, we first introduce an agent valuation function aimed at quantifying agent contributions through the introduction of two criteria: gradient alignment and graph diversity. Moreover, due to the high heterogeneity in graph federated learning, striking a balance between accuracy and fairness becomes particularly crucial. We introduce motif prototypes to enhance accuracy, communicated between the server and agents, enhancing global model aggregation and aiding agents in local model optimization. Extensive experiments show that our model achieves the best trade-off between accuracy and the fairness of model gradient, as well as superior payoff fairness.

Probabilistic Prediction of Longitudinal Trajectory Considering Driving Heterogeneity with Interpretability

Automated vehicles are envisioned to navigate safely in complex mixed-traffic scenarios alongside human-driven vehicles. To promise a high degree of safety, accurately predicting the maneuvers of surrounding vehicles and their future positions is a critical task and attracts much attention. However, most existing studies focused on reasoning about positional information based on objective historical trajectories without fully considering the heterogeneity of driving behaviors. Therefore, this study proposes a trajectory prediction framework that combines Mixture Density Networks (MDN) and considers the driving heterogeneity to provide probabilistic and personalized predictions. Specifically, based on a certain length of historical trajectory data, the situation-specific driving preferences of each driver are identified, where key driving behavior feature vectors are extracted to characterize heterogeneity in driving behavior among different drivers. With the inputs of the short-term historical trajectory data and key driving behavior feature vectors, a probabilistic LSTMMD-DBV model combined with LSTM-based encoder-decoder networks and MDN layers is utilized to carry out personalized predictions. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is employed to interpret the trained model for predictions. The proposed framework is tested based on a wide-range vehicle trajectory dataset. The results indicate that the proposed model can generate probabilistic future trajectories with remarkably improved predictions compared to existing benchmark models. Moreover, the results confirm that the additional input of driving behavior feature vectors representing the heterogeneity of driving behavior could provide more information and thus contribute to improving the prediction accuracy.

Emergence Learning: A Rising Direction from Emergent Abilities and a Monosemanticity-Based Study

In the past 20 years, artificial neural networks have become dominant in various areas, continually growing in scale. However, the current analysis of large models has mainly focused on functionality, overlooking the influence of scale differences on their properties. To address this, we propose the concept of Emergence Learning, which emphasizes the significance of scale. By studying models of different scales, we have identified a key factor in achieving higher performance in large models: the decrease of monosemantic neurons. Building on this insight, we propose a proactive approach to inhibit monosemanticity for improved performance. Our solution involves a two-phase process that includes monosemantic neuron detection and inhibition, supported by theoretical analysis. Experimental results on various tasks and neural networks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method. Following the idea of Emergence Learning, though drawing inspiration from scaling phenomena, the applicability of our method is not restricted to large scale alone. Therefore, the experiment is self-contained. However, extending this research to very large-scale datasets is appealing yet impossible for research departments due to limited resources. We are delighted to share the first co-authorship and eagerly await collaboration from any AI company before submission.

FuXi-S2S: An accurate machine learning model for global subseasonal forecasts

Skillful subseasonal forecasts beyond 2 weeks are crucial for a wide range of applications across various sectors of society. Recently, state-of-the-art machine learning based weather forecasting models have made significant advancements, outperforming the high-resolution forecast (HRES) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, the full potential of machine learning models in subseasonal forecasts has yet to be fully explored. In this study, we introduce FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning based subseasonal forecasting model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, covering 5 upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S integrates an enhanced FuXi base model with a perturbation module for flow-dependent perturbations in hidden features, and incorporates Perlin noise to perturb initial conditions. The model is developed using 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. When compared to the ECMWF Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) reforecasts, the FuXi-S2S forecasts demonstrate superior deterministic and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation (TP), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and geopotential at 500 hPa (Z500). Although it shows slightly inferior performance in predicting 2-meter temperature (T2M), it has clear advantages over land area. Regarding the extreme forecasts, FuXi-S2S outperforms ECMWF S2S globally for TP. Furthermore, FuXi-S2S forecasts surpass the ECMWF S2S reforecasts in predicting the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key source of subseasonal predictability. They extend the skillful prediction of MJO from 30 days to 36 days.

SSIN: Self-Supervised Learning for Rainfall Spatial Interpolation

The acquisition of accurate rainfall distribution in space is an important task in hydrological analysis and natural disaster pre-warning. However, it is impossible to install rain gauges on every corner. Spatial interpolation is a common way to infer rainfall distribution based on available raingauge data. However, the existing works rely on some unrealistic pre-settings to capture spatial correlations, which limits their performance in real scenarios. To tackle this issue, we propose the SSIN, which is a novel data-driven self-supervised learning framework for rainfall spatial interpolation by mining latent spatial patterns from historical observation data. Inspired by the Cloze task and BERT, we fully consider the characteristics of spatial interpolation and design the SpaFormer model based on the Transformer architecture as the core of SSIN. Our main idea is: by constructing rich self-supervision signals via random masking, SpaFormer can learn informative embeddings for raw data and then adaptively model spatial correlations based on rainfall spatial context. Extensive experiments on two real-world raingauge datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions. In addition, we take traffic spatial interpolation as another use case to further explore the performance of our method, and SpaFormer achieves the best performance on one large real-world traffic dataset, which further confirms the effectiveness and generality of our method.

Rethinking and Benchmarking Predict-then-Optimize Paradigm for Combinatorial Optimization Problems

Numerous web applications rely on solving combinatorial optimization problems, such as energy cost-aware scheduling, budget allocation on web advertising, and graph matching on social networks. However, many optimization problems involve unknown coefficients, and improper predictions of these factors may lead to inferior decisions which may cause energy wastage, inefficient resource allocation, inappropriate matching in social networks, etc. Such a research topic is referred to as "Predict-Then-Optimize (PTO)" which considers the performance of prediction and decision-making in a unified system. A noteworthy recent development is the end-to-end methods by directly optimizing the ultimate decision quality which claims to yield better results in contrast to the traditional two-stage approach. However, the evaluation benchmarks in this field are fragmented and the effectiveness of various models in different scenarios remains unclear, hindering the comprehensive assessment and fast deployment of these methods. To address these issues, we provide a comprehensive categorization of current approaches and integrate existing experimental scenarios to establish a unified benchmark, elucidating the circumstances under which end-to-end training yields improvements, as well as the contexts in which it performs ineffectively. We also introduce a new dataset for the industrial combinatorial advertising problem for inclusive finance to open-source. We hope the rethinking and benchmarking of PTO could facilitate more convenient evaluation and deployment, and inspire further improvements both in the academy and industry within this field.

Towards a Unified Conversational Recommendation System: Multi-task Learning via Contextualized Knowledge Distillation

In Conversational Recommendation System (CRS), an agent is asked to recommend a set of items to users within natural language conversations. To address the need for both conversational capability and personalized recommendations, prior works have utilized separate recommendation and dialogue modules. However, such approach inevitably results in a discrepancy between recommendation results and generated responses. To bridge the gap, we propose a multi-task learning for a unified CRS, where a single model jointly learns both tasks via Contextualized Knowledge Distillation (ConKD). We introduce two versions of ConKD: hard gate and soft gate. The former selectively gates between two task-specific teachers, while the latter integrates knowledge from both teachers. Our gates are computed on-the-fly in a context-specific manner, facilitating flexible integration of relevant knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our single model significantly improves recommendation performance while enhancing fluency, and achieves comparable results in terms of diversity.

UAV Pathfinding in Dynamic Obstacle Avoidance with Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

Multi-agent reinforcement learning based methods are significant for online planning of feasible and safe paths for agents in dynamic and uncertain scenarios. Although some methods like fully centralized and fully decentralized methods achieve a certain measure of success, they also encounter problems such as dimension explosion and poor convergence, respectively. In this paper, we propose a novel centralized training with decentralized execution method based on multi-agent reinforcement learning to solve the dynamic obstacle avoidance problem online. In this approach, each agent communicates only with the central planner or only with its neighbors, respectively, to plan feasible and safe paths online. We improve our methods based on the idea of model predictive control to increase the training efficiency and sample utilization of agents. The experimental results in both simulation, indoor, and outdoor environments validate the effectiveness of our method. The video is available at https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1gw41197hV/?vd_source=9de61aecdd9fb684e546d032ef7fe7bf

Model predictive control-based value estimation for efficient reinforcement learning

Reinforcement learning suffers from limitations in real practices primarily due to the numbers of required interactions with virtual environments. It results in a challenging problem that we are implausible to obtain an optimal strategy only with a few attempts for many learning method. Hereby, we design an improved reinforcement learning method based on model predictive control that models the environment through a data-driven approach. Based on learned environmental model, it performs multi-step prediction to estimate the value function and optimize the policy. The method demonstrates higher learning efficiency, faster convergent speed of strategies tending to the optimal value, and fewer sample capacity space required by experience replay buffers. Experimental results, both in classic databases and in a dynamic obstacle avoidance scenario for unmanned aerial vehicle, validate the proposed approaches.

FuXi-Extreme: Improving extreme rainfall and wind forecasts with diffusion model

Significant advancements in the development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting have produced remarkable results. State-of-the-art ML-based weather forecast models, such as FuXi, have demonstrated superior statistical forecast performance in comparison to the high-resolution forecasts (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). However, ML models face a common challenge: as forecast lead times increase, they tend to generate increasingly smooth predictions, leading to an underestimation of the intensity of extreme weather events. To address this challenge, we developed the FuXi-Extreme model, which employs a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to restore finer-scale details in the surface forecast data generated by the FuXi model in 5-day forecasts. An evaluation of extreme total precipitation ($\textrm{TP}$), 10-meter wind speed ($\textrm{WS10}$), and 2-meter temperature ($\textrm{T2M}$) illustrates the superior performance of FuXi-Extreme over both FuXi and HRES. Moreover, when evaluating tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts based on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset, both FuXi and FuXi-Extreme shows superior performance in TC track forecasts compared to HRES, but they show inferior performance in TC intensity forecasts in comparison to HRES.