Entire Chain Uplift Modeling with Context-Enhanced Learning for Intelligent Marketing

Uplift modeling, vital in online marketing, seeks to accurately measure the impact of various strategies, such as coupons or discounts, on different users by predicting the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). In an e-commerce setting, user behavior follows a defined sequential chain, including impression, click, and conversion. Marketing strategies exert varied uplift effects at each stage within this chain, impacting metrics like click-through and conversion rate. Despite its utility, existing research has neglected to consider the inter-task across all stages impacts within a specific treatment and has insufficiently utilized the treatment information, potentially introducing substantial bias into subsequent marketing decisions. We identify these two issues as the chain-bias problem and the treatment-unadaptive problem. This paper introduces the Entire Chain UPlift method with context-enhanced learning (ECUP), devised to tackle these issues. ECUP consists of two primary components: 1) the Entire Chain-Enhanced Network, which utilizes user behavior patterns to estimate ITE throughout the entire chain space, models the various impacts of treatments on each task, and integrates task prior information to enhance context awareness across all stages, capturing the impact of treatment on different tasks, and 2) the Treatment-Enhanced Network, which facilitates fine-grained treatment modeling through bit-level feature interactions, thereby enabling adaptive feature adjustment. Extensive experiments on public and industrial datasets validate ECUPs effectiveness. Moreover, ECUP has been deployed on the Meituan food delivery platform, serving millions of daily active users, with the related dataset released for future research.

Probabilistic Prediction of Longitudinal Trajectory Considering Driving Heterogeneity with Interpretability

Automated vehicles are envisioned to navigate safely in complex mixed-traffic scenarios alongside human-driven vehicles. To promise a high degree of safety, accurately predicting the maneuvers of surrounding vehicles and their future positions is a critical task and attracts much attention. However, most existing studies focused on reasoning about positional information based on objective historical trajectories without fully considering the heterogeneity of driving behaviors. Therefore, this study proposes a trajectory prediction framework that combines Mixture Density Networks (MDN) and considers the driving heterogeneity to provide probabilistic and personalized predictions. Specifically, based on a certain length of historical trajectory data, the situation-specific driving preferences of each driver are identified, where key driving behavior feature vectors are extracted to characterize heterogeneity in driving behavior among different drivers. With the inputs of the short-term historical trajectory data and key driving behavior feature vectors, a probabilistic LSTMMD-DBV model combined with LSTM-based encoder-decoder networks and MDN layers is utilized to carry out personalized predictions. Finally, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method is employed to interpret the trained model for predictions. The proposed framework is tested based on a wide-range vehicle trajectory dataset. The results indicate that the proposed model can generate probabilistic future trajectories with remarkably improved predictions compared to existing benchmark models. Moreover, the results confirm that the additional input of driving behavior feature vectors representing the heterogeneity of driving behavior could provide more information and thus contribute to improving the prediction accuracy.

A Deep Behavior Path Matching Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction

User behaviors on an e-commerce app not only contain different kinds of feedback on items but also sometimes imply the cognitive clue of the user's decision-making. For understanding the psychological procedure behind user decisions, we present the behavior path and propose to match the user's current behavior path with historical behavior paths to predict user behaviors on the app. Further, we design a deep neural network for behavior path matching and solve three difficulties in modeling behavior paths: sparsity, noise interference, and accurate matching of behavior paths. In particular, we leverage contrastive learning to augment user behavior paths, provide behavior path self-activation to alleviate the effect of noise, and adopt a two-level matching mechanism to identify the most appropriate candidate. Our model shows excellent performance on two real-world datasets, outperforming the state-of-the-art CTR model. Moreover, our model has been deployed on the Meituan food delivery platform and has accumulated 1.6% improvement in CTR and 1.8% improvement in advertising revenue.