Rethinking Channel Dependence for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting: Learning from Leading Indicators

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance.

Towards Fine-Grained Explainability for Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network

Heterogeneous graph neural networks (HGNs) are prominent approaches to node classification tasks on heterogeneous graphs. Despite the superior performance, insights about the predictions made from HGNs are obscure to humans. Existing explainability techniques are mainly proposed for GNNs on homogeneous graphs. They focus on highlighting salient graph objects to the predictions whereas the problem of how these objects affect the predictions remains unsolved. Given heterogeneous graphs with complex structures and rich semantics, it is imperative that salient objects can be accompanied with their influence paths to the predictions, unveiling the reasoning process of HGNs. In this paper, we develop xPath, a new framework that provides fine-grained explanations for black-box HGNs specifying a cause node with its influence path to the target node. In xPath, we differentiate the influence of a node on the prediction w.r.t. every individual influence path, and measure the influence by perturbing graph structure via a novel graph rewiring algorithm. Furthermore, we introduce a greedy search algorithm to find the most influential fine-grained explanations efficiently. Empirical results on various HGNs and heterogeneous graphs show that xPath yields faithful explanations efficiently, outperforming the adaptations of advanced GNN explanation approaches.

SSIN: Self-Supervised Learning for Rainfall Spatial Interpolation

The acquisition of accurate rainfall distribution in space is an important task in hydrological analysis and natural disaster pre-warning. However, it is impossible to install rain gauges on every corner. Spatial interpolation is a common way to infer rainfall distribution based on available raingauge data. However, the existing works rely on some unrealistic pre-settings to capture spatial correlations, which limits their performance in real scenarios. To tackle this issue, we propose the SSIN, which is a novel data-driven self-supervised learning framework for rainfall spatial interpolation by mining latent spatial patterns from historical observation data. Inspired by the Cloze task and BERT, we fully consider the characteristics of spatial interpolation and design the SpaFormer model based on the Transformer architecture as the core of SSIN. Our main idea is: by constructing rich self-supervision signals via random masking, SpaFormer can learn informative embeddings for raw data and then adaptively model spatial correlations based on rainfall spatial context. Extensive experiments on two real-world raingauge datasets show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions. In addition, we take traffic spatial interpolation as another use case to further explore the performance of our method, and SpaFormer achieves the best performance on one large real-world traffic dataset, which further confirms the effectiveness and generality of our method.

Methods for Acquiring and Incorporating Knowledge into Stock Price Prediction: A Survey

Predicting stock prices presents a challenging research problem due to the inherent volatility and non-linear nature of the stock market. In recent years, knowledge-enhanced stock price prediction methods have shown groundbreaking results by utilizing external knowledge to understand the stock market. Despite the importance of these methods, there is a scarcity of scholarly works that systematically synthesize previous studies from the perspective of external knowledge types. Specifically, the external knowledge can be modeled in different data structures, which we group into non-graph-based formats and graph-based formats: 1) non-graph-based knowledge captures contextual information and multimedia descriptions specifically associated with an individual stock; 2) graph-based knowledge captures interconnected and interdependent information in the stock market. This survey paper aims to provide a systematic and comprehensive description of methods for acquiring external knowledge from various unstructured data sources and then incorporating it into stock price prediction models. We also explore fusion methods for combining external knowledge with historical price features. Moreover, this paper includes a compilation of relevant datasets and delves into potential future research directions in this domain.

DoubleAdapt: A Meta-learning Approach to Incremental Learning for Stock Trend Forecasting

Stock trend forecasting is a fundamental task of quantitative investment where precise predictions of price trends are indispensable. As an online service, stock data continuously arrive over time. It is practical and efficient to incrementally update the forecast model with the latest data which may reveal some new patterns recurring in the future stock market. However, incremental learning for stock trend forecasting still remains under-explored due to the challenge of distribution shifts (a.k.a. concept drifts). With the stock market dynamically evolving, the distribution of future data can slightly or significantly differ from incremental data, hindering the effectiveness of incremental updates. To address this challenge, we propose DoubleAdapt, an end-to-end framework with two adapters, which can effectively adapt the data and the model to mitigate the effects of distribution shifts. Our key insight is to automatically learn how to adapt stock data into a locally stationary distribution in favor of profitable updates. Complemented by data adaptation, we can confidently adapt the model parameters under mitigated distribution shifts. We cast each incremental learning task as a meta-learning task and automatically optimize the adapters for desirable data adaptation and parameter initialization. Experiments on real-world stock datasets demonstrate that DoubleAdapt achieves state-of-the-art predictive performance and shows considerable efficiency.

RESUS: Warm-Up Cold Users via Meta-Learning Residual User Preferences in CTR Prediction

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction on cold users is a challenging task in recommender systems. Recent researches have resorted to meta-learning to tackle the cold-user challenge, which either perform few-shot user representation learning or adopt optimization-based meta-learning. However, existing methods suffer from information loss or inefficient optimization process, and they fail to explicitly model global user preference knowledge which is crucial to complement the sparse and insufficient preference information of cold users. In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient approach named RESUS, which decouples the learning of global preference knowledge contributed by collective users from the learning of residual preferences for individual users. Specifically, we employ a shared predictor to infer basis user preferences, which acquires global preference knowledge from the interactions of different users. Meanwhile, we develop two efficient algorithms based on the nearest neighbor and ridge regression predictors, which infer residual user preferences via learning quickly from a few user-specific interactions. Extensive experiments on three public datasets demonstrate that our RESUS approach is efficient and effective in improving CTR prediction accuracy on cold users, compared with various state-of-the-art methods.

Morphological feature visualization of Alzheimer's disease via Multidirectional Perception GAN

The diagnosis of early stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is essential for timely treatment to slow further deterioration. Visualizing the morphological features for the early stages of AD is of great clinical value. In this work, a novel Multidirectional Perception Generative Adversarial Network (MP-GAN) is proposed to visualize the morphological features indicating the severity of AD for patients of different stages. Specifically, by introducing a novel multidirectional mapping mechanism into the model, the proposed MP-GAN can capture the salient global features efficiently. Thus, by utilizing the class-discriminative map from the generator, the proposed model can clearly delineate the subtle lesions via MR image transformations between the source domain and the pre-defined target domain. Besides, by integrating the adversarial loss, classification loss, cycle consistency loss and \emph{L}1 penalty, a single generator in MP-GAN can learn the class-discriminative maps for multiple-classes. Extensive experimental results on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset demonstrate that MP-GAN achieves superior performance compared with the existing methods. The lesions visualized by MP-GAN are also consistent with what clinicians observe.

A Prior Guided Adversarial Representation Learning and Hypergraph Perceptual Network for Predicting Abnormal Connections of Alzheimer's Disease

Alzheimer's disease is characterized by alterations of the brain's structural and functional connectivity during its progressive degenerative processes. Existing auxiliary diagnostic methods have accomplished the classification task, but few of them can accurately evaluate the changing characteristics of brain connectivity. In this work, a prior guided adversarial representation learning and hypergraph perceptual network (PGARL-HPN) is proposed to predict abnormal brain connections using triple-modality medical images. Concretely, a prior distribution from the anatomical knowledge is estimated to guide multimodal representation learning using an adversarial strategy. Also, the pairwise collaborative discriminator structure is further utilized to narrow the difference of representation distribution. Moreover, the hypergraph perceptual network is developed to effectively fuse the learned representations while establishing high-order relations within and between multimodal images. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms other related methods in analyzing and predicting Alzheimer's disease progression. More importantly, the identified abnormal connections are partly consistent with the previous neuroscience discoveries. The proposed model can evaluate characteristics of abnormal brain connections at different stages of Alzheimer's disease, which is helpful for cognitive disease study and early treatment.

DecGAN: Decoupling Generative Adversarial Network detecting abnormal neural circuits for Alzheimer's disease

One of the main reasons for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the disorder of some neural circuits. Existing methods for AD prediction have achieved great success, however, detecting abnormal neural circuits from the perspective of brain networks is still a big challenge. In this work, a novel decoupling generative adversarial network (DecGAN) is proposed to detect abnormal neural circuits for AD. Concretely, a decoupling module is designed to decompose a brain network into two parts: one part is composed of a few sparse graphs which represent the neural circuits largely determining the development of AD; the other part is a supplement graph, whose influence on AD can be ignored. Furthermore, the adversarial strategy is utilized to guide the decoupling module to extract the feature more related to AD. Meanwhile, by encoding the detected neural circuits to hypergraph data, an analytic module associated with the hyperedge neurons algorithm is designed to identify the neural circuits. More importantly, a novel sparse capacity loss based on the spatial-spectral hypergraph similarity is developed to minimize the intrinsic topological distribution of neural circuits, which can significantly improve the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively detect the abnormal neural circuits at different stages of AD, which is helpful for pathological study and early treatment.

Characterization Multimodal Connectivity of Brain Network by Hypergraph GAN for Alzheimer's Disease Analysis

Using multimodal neuroimaging data to characterize brain network is currently an advanced technique for Alzheimer's disease(AD) Analysis. Over recent years the neuroimaging community has made tremendous progress in the study of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) derived from blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signals and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) derived from white matter fiber tractography. However, Due to the heterogeneity and complexity between BOLD signals and fiber tractography, Most existing multimodal data fusion algorithms can not sufficiently take advantage of the complementary information between rs-fMRI and DTI. To overcome this problem, a novel Hypergraph Generative Adversarial Networks(HGGAN) is proposed in this paper, which utilizes Interactive Hyperedge Neurons module (IHEN) and Optimal Hypergraph Homomorphism algorithm(OHGH) to generate multimodal connectivity of Brain Network from rs-fMRI combination with DTI. To evaluate the performance of this model, We use publicly available data from the ADNI database to demonstrate that the proposed model not only can identify discriminative brain regions of AD but also can effectively improve classification performance.