All-in-one simulation-based inference

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current simulation-based amortized inference methods are simulation-hungry and inflexible: They require the specification of a fixed parametric prior, simulator, and inference tasks ahead of time. Here, we present a new amortized inference method -- the Simformer -- which overcomes these limitations. By training a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures, the Simformer outperforms current state-of-the-art amortized inference approaches on benchmark tasks and is substantially more flexible: It can be applied to models with function-valued parameters, it can handle inference scenarios with missing or unstructured data, and it can sample arbitrary conditionals of the joint distribution of parameters and data, including both posterior and likelihood. We showcase the performance and flexibility of the Simformer on simulators from ecology, epidemiology, and neuroscience, and demonstrate that it opens up new possibilities and application domains for amortized Bayesian inference on simulation-based models.

On the Challenges and Opportunities in Generative AI

The field of deep generative modeling has grown rapidly and consistently over the years. With the availability of massive amounts of training data coupled with advances in scalable unsupervised learning paradigms, recent large-scale generative models show tremendous promise in synthesizing high-resolution images and text, as well as structured data such as videos and molecules. However, we argue that current large-scale generative AI models do not sufficiently address several fundamental issues that hinder their widespread adoption across domains. In this work, we aim to identify key unresolved challenges in modern generative AI paradigms that should be tackled to further enhance their capabilities, versatility, and reliability. By identifying these challenges, we aim to provide researchers with valuable insights for exploring fruitful research directions, thereby fostering the development of more robust and accessible generative AI solutions.

Layerwise Proximal Replay: A Proximal Point Method for Online Continual Learning

In online continual learning, a neural network incrementally learns from a non-i.i.d. data stream. Nearly all online continual learning methods employ experience replay to simultaneously prevent catastrophic forgetting and underfitting on past data. Our work demonstrates a limitation of this approach: networks trained with experience replay tend to have unstable optimization trajectories, impeding their overall accuracy. Surprisingly, these instabilities persist even when the replay buffer stores all previous training examples, suggesting that this issue is orthogonal to catastrophic forgetting. We minimize these instabilities through a simple modification of the optimization geometry. Our solution, Layerwise Proximal Replay (LPR), balances learning from new and replay data while only allowing for gradual changes in the hidden activation of past data. We demonstrate that LPR consistently improves replay-based online continual learning methods across multiple problem settings, regardless of the amount of available replay memory.

Nearest Neighbour Score Estimators for Diffusion Generative Models

Score function estimation is the cornerstone of both training and sampling from diffusion generative models. Despite this fact, the most commonly used estimators are either biased neural network approximations or high variance Monte Carlo estimators based on the conditional score. We introduce a novel nearest neighbour score function estimator which utilizes multiple samples from the training set to dramatically decrease estimator variance. We leverage our low variance estimator in two compelling applications. Training consistency models with our estimator, we report a significant increase in both convergence speed and sample quality. In diffusion models, we show that our estimator can replace a learned network for probability-flow ODE integration, opening promising new avenues of future research.

A Diffusion-Model of Joint Interactive Navigation

Simulation of autonomous vehicle systems requires that simulated traffic participants exhibit diverse and realistic behaviors. The use of prerecorded real-world traffic scenarios in simulation ensures realism but the rarity of safety critical events makes large scale collection of driving scenarios expensive. In this paper, we present DJINN - a diffusion based method of generating traffic scenarios. Our approach jointly diffuses the trajectories of all agents, conditioned on a flexible set of state observations from the past, present, or future. On popular trajectory forecasting datasets, we report state of the art performance on joint trajectory metrics. In addition, we demonstrate how DJINN flexibly enables direct test-time sampling from a variety of valuable conditional distributions including goal-based sampling, behavior-class sampling, and scenario editing.

Don't be so negative! Score-based Generative Modeling with Oracle-assisted Guidance

The maximum likelihood principle advocates parameter estimation via optimization of the data likelihood function. Models estimated in this way can exhibit a variety of generalization characteristics dictated by, e.g. architecture, parameterization, and optimization bias. This work addresses model learning in a setting where there further exists side-information in the form of an oracle that can label samples as being outside the support of the true data generating distribution. Specifically we develop a new denoising diffusion probabilistic modeling (DDPM) methodology, Gen-neG, that leverages this additional side-information. Our approach builds on generative adversarial networks (GANs) and discriminator guidance in diffusion models to guide the generation process towards the positive support region indicated by the oracle. We empirically establish the utility of Gen-neG in applications including collision avoidance in self-driving simulators and safety-guarded human motion generation.

Realistically distributing object placements in synthetic training data improves the performance of vision-based object detection models

When training object detection models on synthetic data, it is important to make the distribution of synthetic data as close as possible to the distribution of real data. We investigate specifically the impact of object placement distribution, keeping all other aspects of synthetic data fixed. Our experiment, training a 3D vehicle detection model in CARLA and testing on KITTI, demonstrates a substantial improvement resulting from improving the object placement distribution.

Video Killed the HD-Map: Predicting Driving Behavior Directly From Drone Images

The development of algorithms that learn behavioral driving models using human demonstrations has led to increasingly realistic simulations. In general, such models learn to jointly predict trajectories for all controlled agents by exploiting road context information such as drivable lanes obtained from manually annotated high-definition (HD) maps. Recent studies show that these models can greatly benefit from increasing the amount of human data available for training. However, the manual annotation of HD maps which is necessary for every new location puts a bottleneck on efficiently scaling up human traffic datasets. We propose a drone birdview image-based map (DBM) representation that requires minimal annotation and provides rich road context information. We evaluate multi-agent trajectory prediction using the DBM by incorporating it into a differentiable driving simulator as an image-texture-based differentiable rendering module. Our results demonstrate competitive multi-agent trajectory prediction performance when using our DBM representation as compared to models trained with rasterized HD maps.

Visual Chain-of-Thought Diffusion Models

Recent progress with conditional image diffusion models has been stunning, and this holds true whether we are speaking about models conditioned on a text description, a scene layout, or a sketch. Unconditional image diffusion models are also improving but lag behind, as do diffusion models which are conditioned on lower-dimensional features like class labels. We propose to close the gap between conditional and unconditional models using a two-stage sampling procedure. In the first stage we sample an embedding describing the semantic content of the image. In the second stage we sample the image conditioned on this embedding and then discard the embedding. Doing so lets us leverage the power of conditional diffusion models on the unconditional generation task, which we show improves FID by 25-50% compared to standard unconditional generation.

Vehicle Type Specific Waypoint Generation

We develop a generic mechanism for generating vehicle-type specific sequences of waypoints from a probabilistic foundation model of driving behavior. Many foundation behavior models are trained on data that does not include vehicle information, which limits their utility in downstream applications such as planning. Our novel methodology conditionally specializes such a behavior predictive model to a vehicle-type by utilizing byproducts of the reinforcement learning algorithms used to produce vehicle specific controllers. We show how to compose a vehicle specific value function estimate with a generic probabilistic behavior model to generate vehicle-type specific waypoint sequences that are more likely to be physically plausible then their vehicle-agnostic counterparts.