Survival modeling using deep learning, machine learning and statistical methods: A comparative analysis for predicting mortality after hospital admission

Survival analysis is essential for studying time-to-event outcomes and providing a dynamic understanding of the probability of an event occurring over time. Various survival analysis techniques, from traditional statistical models to state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, support healthcare intervention and policy decisions. However, there remains ongoing discussion about their comparative performance. We conducted a comparative study of several survival analysis methods, including Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH), stepwise CoxPH, elastic net penalized Cox model, Random Survival Forests (RSF), Gradient Boosting machine (GBM) learning, AutoScore-Survival, DeepSurv, time-dependent Cox model based on neural network (CoxTime), and DeepHit survival neural network. We applied the concordance index (C-index) for model goodness-of-fit, and integral Brier scores (IBS) for calibration, and considered the model interpretability. As a case study, we performed a retrospective analysis of patients admitted through the emergency department of a tertiary hospital from 2017 to 2019, predicting 90-day all-cause mortality based on patient demographics, clinicopathological features, and historical data. The results of the C-index indicate that deep learning achieved comparable performance, with DeepSurv producing the best discrimination (DeepSurv: 0.893; CoxTime: 0.892; DeepHit: 0.891). The calibration of DeepSurv (IBS: 0.041) performed the best, followed by RSF (IBS: 0.042) and GBM (IBS: 0.0421), all using the full variables. Moreover, AutoScore-Survival, using a minimal variable subset, is easy to interpret, and can achieve good discrimination and calibration (C-index: 0.867; IBS: 0.044). While all models were satisfactory, DeepSurv exhibited the best discrimination and calibration. In addition, AutoScore-Survival offers a more parsimonious model and excellent interpretability.

MixTEA: Semi-supervised Entity Alignment with Mixture Teaching

Semi-supervised entity alignment (EA) is a practical and challenging task because of the lack of adequate labeled mappings as training data. Most works address this problem by generating pseudo mappings for unlabeled entities. However, they either suffer from the erroneous (noisy) pseudo mappings or largely ignore the uncertainty of pseudo mappings. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised EA method, termed as MixTEA, which guides the model learning with an end-to-end mixture teaching of manually labeled mappings and probabilistic pseudo mappings. We firstly train a student model using few labeled mappings as standard. More importantly, in pseudo mapping learning, we propose a bi-directional voting (BDV) strategy that fuses the alignment decisions in different directions to estimate the uncertainty via the joint matching confidence score. Meanwhile, we also design a matching diversity-based rectification (MDR) module to adjust the pseudo mapping learning, thus reducing the negative influence of noisy mappings. Extensive results on benchmark datasets as well as further analyses demonstrate the superiority and the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Generalized Independent Noise Condition for Estimating Causal Structure with Latent Variables

We investigate the challenging task of learning causal structure in the presence of latent variables, including locating latent variables and determining their quantity, and identifying causal relationships among both latent and observed variables. To address this, we propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition for linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models that incorporate latent variables, which establishes the independence between a linear combination of certain measured variables and some other measured variables. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $\bf{Y}$ and $\bf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $\omega^{\intercal}\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ are independent, where $\omega$ is a non-zero parameter vector determined by the cross-covariance between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$. We then give necessary and sufficient graphical criteria of the GIN condition in linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models. Roughly speaking, GIN implies the existence of an exogenous set $\mathcal{S}$ relative to the parent set of $\mathbf{Y}$ (w.r.t. the causal ordering), such that $\mathcal{S}$ d-separates $\mathbf{Y}$ from $\mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition (i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent of the residual derived from regressing the effect on the causes) can be seen as a special case of GIN. With such a connection between GIN and latent causal structures, we further leverage the proposed GIN condition, together with a well-designed search procedure, to efficiently estimate Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent Hierarchical Models (LiNGLaHs), where latent confounders may also be causally related and may even follow a hierarchical structure. We show that the underlying causal structure of a LiNGLaH is identifiable in light of GIN conditions under mild assumptions. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Identification of Nonlinear Latent Hierarchical Models

Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be highly challenging, especially when observed variables are generated by causally related latent variables and the relationships are nonlinear. In this work, we investigate the identification problem for nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models in which observed variables are generated by a set of causally related latent variables, and some latent variables may not have observed children. We show that the identifiability of both causal structure and latent variables can be achieved under mild assumptions: on causal structures, we allow for the existence of multiple paths between any pair of variables in the graph, which relaxes latent tree assumptions in prior work; on structural functions, we do not make parametric assumptions, thus permitting general nonlinearity and multi-dimensional continuous variables. Specifically, we first develop a basic identification criterion in the form of novel identifiability guarantees for an elementary latent variable model. Leveraging this criterion, we show that both causal structures and latent variables of the hierarchical model can be identified asymptotically by explicitly constructing an estimation procedure. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to establish identifiability guarantees for both causal structures and latent variables in nonlinear latent hierarchical models.

Improving Knowledge Graph Entity Alignment with Graph Augmentation

Entity alignment (EA) which links equivalent entities across different knowledge graphs (KGs) plays a crucial role in knowledge fusion. In recent years, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been successfully applied in many embedding-based EA methods. However, existing GNN-based methods either suffer from the structural heterogeneity issue that especially appears in the real KG distributions or ignore the heterogeneous representation learning for unseen (unlabeled) entities, which would lead the model to overfit on few alignment seeds (i.e., training data) and thus cause unsatisfactory alignment performance. To enhance the EA ability, we propose GAEA, a novel EA approach based on graph augmentation. In this model, we design a simple Entity-Relation (ER) Encoder to generate latent representations for entities via jointly modeling comprehensive structural information and rich relation semantics. Moreover, we use graph augmentation to create two graph views for margin-based alignment learning and contrastive entity representation learning, thus mitigating structural heterogeneity and further improving the model's alignment performance. Extensive experiments conducted on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Federated and distributed learning applications for electronic health records and structured medical data: A scoping review

Federated learning (FL) has gained popularity in clinical research in recent years to facilitate privacy-preserving collaboration. Structured data, one of the most prevalent forms of clinical data, has experienced significant growth in volume concurrently, notably with the widespread adoption of electronic health records in clinical practice. This review examines FL applications on structured medical data, identifies contemporary limitations and discusses potential innovations. We searched five databases, SCOPUS, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and CINAHL, to identify articles that applied FL to structured medical data and reported results following the PRISMA guidelines. Each selected publication was evaluated from three primary perspectives, including data quality, modeling strategies, and FL frameworks. Out of the 1160 papers screened, 34 met the inclusion criteria, with each article consisting of one or more studies that used FL to handle structured clinical/medical data. Of these, 24 utilized data acquired from electronic health records, with clinical predictions and association studies being the most common clinical research tasks that FL was applied to. Only one article exclusively explored the vertical FL setting, while the remaining 33 explored the horizontal FL setting, with only 14 discussing comparisons between single-site (local) and FL (global) analysis. The existing FL applications on structured medical data lack sufficient evaluations of clinically meaningful benefits, particularly when compared to single-site analyses. Therefore, it is crucial for future FL applications to prioritize clinical motivations and develop designs and methodologies that can effectively support and aid clinical practice and research.

Multi-Arm Robot Task Planning for Fruit Harvesting Using Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

The emergence of harvesting robotics offers a promising solution to the issue of limited agricultural labor resources and the increasing demand for fruits. Despite notable advancements in the field of harvesting robotics, the utilization of such technology in orchards is still limited. The key challenge is to improve operational efficiency. Taking into account inner-arm conflicts, couplings of DoFs, and dynamic tasks, we propose a task planning strategy for a harvesting robot with four arms in this paper. The proposed method employs a Markov game framework to formulate the four-arm robotic harvesting task, which avoids the computational complexity of solving an NP-hard scheduling problem. Furthermore, a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) structure with a fully centralized collaboration protocol is used to train a MARL-based task planning network. Several simulations and orchard experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method for a multi-arm harvesting robot in comparison with the existing method.

FedScore: A privacy-preserving framework for federated scoring system development

We propose FedScore, a privacy-preserving federated learning framework for scoring system generation across multiple sites to facilitate cross-institutional collaborations. The FedScore framework includes five modules: federated variable ranking, federated variable transformation, federated score derivation, federated model selection and federated model evaluation. To illustrate usage and assess FedScore's performance, we built a hypothetical global scoring system for mortality prediction within 30 days after a visit to an emergency department using 10 simulated sites divided from a tertiary hospital in Singapore. We employed a pre-existing score generator to construct 10 local scoring systems independently at each site and we also developed a scoring system using centralized data for comparison. We compared the acquired FedScore model's performance with that of other scoring models using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The FedScore model achieved an average area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.763 across all sites, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.020. We also calculated the average AUC values and SDs for each local model, and the FedScore model showed promising accuracy and stability with a high average AUC value which was closest to the one of the pooled model and SD which was lower than that of most local models. This study demonstrates that FedScore is a privacy-preserving scoring system generator with potentially good generalizability.

Handling missing values in healthcare data: A systematic review of deep learning-based imputation techniques

Objective: The proper handling of missing values is critical to delivering reliable estimates and decisions, especially in high-stakes fields such as clinical research. The increasing diversity and complexity of data have led many researchers to develop deep learning (DL)-based imputation techniques. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the use of these techniques, with a particular focus on data types, aiming to assist healthcare researchers from various disciplines in dealing with missing values. Methods: We searched five databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, CINAHL, and Scopus) for articles published prior to August 2021 that applied DL-based models to imputation. We assessed selected publications from four perspectives: health data types, model backbone (i.e., main architecture), imputation strategies, and comparison with non-DL-based methods. Based on data types, we created an evidence map to illustrate the adoption of DL models. Results: We included 64 articles, of which tabular static (26.6%, 17/64) and temporal data (37.5%, 24/64) were the most frequently investigated. We found that model backbone(s) differed among data types as well as the imputation strategy. The "integrated" strategy, that is, the imputation task being solved concurrently with downstream tasks, was popular for tabular temporal (50%, 12/24) and multi-modal data (71.4%, 5/7), but limited for other data types. Moreover, DL-based imputation methods yielded better imputation accuracy in most studies, compared with non-DL-based methods. Conclusion: DL-based imputation models can be customized based on data type, addressing the corresponding missing patterns, and its associated "integrated" strategy can enhance the efficacy of imputation, especially in scenarios where data is complex. Future research may focus on the portability and fairness of DL-based models for healthcare data imputation.

Zero-shot stance detection based on cross-domain feature enhancement by contrastive learning

Zero-shot stance detection is challenging because it requires detecting the stance of previously unseen targets in the inference phase. The ability to learn transferable target-invariant features is critical for zero-shot stance detection. In this work, we propose a stance detection approach that can efficiently adapt to unseen targets, the core of which is to capture target-invariant syntactic expression patterns as transferable knowledge. Specifically, we first augment the data by masking the topic words of sentences, and then feed the augmented data to an unsupervised contrastive learning module to capture transferable features. Then, to fit a specific target, we encode the raw texts as target-specific features. Finally, we adopt an attention mechanism, which combines syntactic expression patterns with target-specific features to obtain enhanced features for predicting previously unseen targets. Experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms competitive baselines on four benchmark datasets.