Simple Feedfoward Neural Networks are Almost All You Need for Time Series Forecasting

Time series data are everywhere -- from finance to healthcare -- and each domain brings its own unique complexities and structures. While advanced models like Transformers and graph neural networks (GNNs) have gained popularity in time series forecasting, largely due to their success in tasks like language modeling, their added complexity is not always necessary. In our work, we show that simple feedforward neural networks (SFNNs) can achieve performance on par with, or even exceeding, these state-of-the-art models, while being simpler, smaller, faster, and more robust. Our analysis indicates that, in many cases, univariate SFNNs are sufficient, implying that modeling interactions between multiple series may offer only marginal benefits. Even when inter-series relationships are strong, a basic multivariate SFNN still delivers competitive results. We also examine some key design choices and offer guidelines on making informed decisions. Additionally, we critique existing benchmarking practices and propose an improved evaluation protocol. Although SFNNs may not be optimal for every situation (hence the ``almost'' in our title) they serve as a strong baseline that future time series forecasting methods should always be compared against.

Graph Network Modeling Techniques for Visualizing Human Mobility Patterns

Human mobility analysis at urban-scale requires models to represent the complex nature of human movements, which in turn are affected by accessibility to nearby points of interest, underlying socioeconomic factors of a place, and local transport choices for people living in a geographic region. In this work, we represent human mobility and the associated flow of movements as a grapyh. Graph-based approaches for mobility analysis are still in their early stages of adoption and are actively being researched. The challenges of graph-based mobility analysis are multifaceted - the lack of sufficiently high-quality data to represent flows at high spatial and teporal resolution whereas, limited computational resources to translate large voluments of mobility data into a network structure, and scaling issues inherent in graph models etc. The current study develops a methodology by embedding graphs into a continuous space, which alleviates issues related to fast graph matching, graph time-series modeling, and visualization of mobility dynamics. Through experiments, we demonstrate how mobility data collected from taxicab trajectories could be transformed into network structures and patterns of mobility flow changes, and can be used for downstream tasks reporting approx 40% decrease in error on average in matched graphs vs unmatched ones.

Lightweight Channel-wise Dynamic Fusion Model: Non-stationary Time Series Forecasting via Entropy Analysis

Non-stationarity is an intrinsic property of real-world time series and plays a crucial role in time series forecasting. Previous studies primarily adopt instance normalization to attenuate the non-stationarity of original series for better predictability. However, instance normalization that directly removes the inherent non-stationarity can lead to three issues: (1) disrupting global temporal dependencies, (2) ignoring channel-specific differences, and (3) producing over-smoothed predictions. To address these issues, we theoretically demonstrate that variance can be a valid and interpretable proxy for quantifying non-stationarity of time series. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel lightweight \textit{C}hannel-wise \textit{D}ynamic \textit{F}usion \textit{M}odel (\textit{CDFM}), which selectively and dynamically recovers intrinsic non-stationarity of the original series, while keeping the predictability of normalized series. First, we design a Dual-Predictor Module, which involves two branches: a Time Stationary Predictor for capturing stable patterns and a Time Non-stationary Predictor for modeling global dynamics patterns. Second, we propose a Fusion Weight Learner to dynamically characterize the intrinsic non-stationary information across different samples based on variance. Finally, we introduce a Channel Selector to selectively recover non-stationary information from specific channels by evaluating their non-stationarity, similarity, and distribution consistency, enabling the model to capture relevant dynamic features and avoid overfitting. Comprehensive experiments on seven time series datasets demonstrate the superiority and generalization capabilities of CDFM.

STRIVE: A Think & Improve Approach with Iterative Refinement for Enhancing Question Quality Estimation

Automatically assessing question quality is crucial for educators as it saves time, ensures consistency, and provides immediate feedback for refining teaching materials. We propose a novel methodology called STRIVE (Structured Thinking and Refinement with multiLLMs for Improving Verified Question Estimation) using a series of Large Language Models (LLMs) for automatic question evaluation. This approach aims to improve the accuracy and depth of question quality assessment, ultimately supporting diverse learners and enhancing educational practices. The method estimates question quality in an automated manner by generating multiple evaluations based on the strengths and weaknesses of the provided question and then choosing the best solution generated by the LLM. Then the process is improved by iterative review and response with another LLM until the evaluation metric values converge. This sophisticated method of evaluating question quality improves the estimation of question quality by automating the task of question quality evaluation. Correlation scores show that using this proposed method helps to improve correlation with human judgments compared to the baseline method. Error analysis shows that metrics like relevance and appropriateness improve significantly relative to human judgments by using STRIVE.

Explainable Multi-modal Time Series Prediction with LLM-in-the-Loop

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototype-based time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multi-modal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow -- prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement -- continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9\% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

Random Projections and Natural Sparsity in Time-Series Classification: A Theoretical Analysis

Time-series classification is essential across diverse domains, including medical diagnosis, industrial monitoring, financial forecasting, and human activity recognition. The Rocket algorithm has emerged as a simple yet powerful method, achieving state-of-the-art performance through random convolutional kernels applied to time-series data, followed by non-linear transformation. Its architecture approximates a one-hidden-layer convolutional neural network while eliminating parameter training, ensuring computational efficiency. Despite its empirical success, fundamental questions about its theoretical foundations remain unexplored. We bridge theory and practice by formalizing Rocket's random convolutional filters within the compressed sensing framework, proving that random projections preserve discriminative patterns in time-series data. This analysis reveals relationships between kernel parameters and input signal characteristics, enabling more principled approaches to algorithm configuration. Moreover, we demonstrate that its non-linearity, based on the proportion of positive values after convolutions, expresses the inherent sparsity of time-series data. Our theoretical investigation also proves that Rocket satisfies two critical conditions: translation invariance and noise robustness. These findings enhance interpretability and provide guidance for parameter optimization in extreme cases, advancing both theoretical understanding and practical application of time-series classification.

Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Time Series: A Survey

Time series frequently manifest distribution shifts, diverse latent features, and non-stationary learning dynamics, particularly in open and evolving environments. These characteristics pose significant challenges for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. While substantial progress has been made, a systematic synthesis of advancements remains lacking. To address this gap, we present the first comprehensive review of OOD generalization methodologies for time series, organized to delineate the field's evolutionary trajectory and contemporary research landscape. We organize our analysis across three foundational dimensions: data distribution, representation learning, and OOD evaluation. For each dimension, we present several popular algorithms in detail. Furthermore, we highlight key application scenarios, emphasizing their real-world impact. Finally, we identify persistent challenges and propose future research directions. A detailed summary of the methods reviewed for the generalization of OOD in time series can be accessed at https://tsood-generalization.com.

Addressing Challenges in Time Series Forecasting: A Comprehensive Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques

The explosion of Time Series (TS) data, driven by advancements in technology, necessitates sophisticated analytical methods. Modern management systems increasingly rely on analyzing this data, highlighting the importance of effcient processing techniques. State-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) approaches for TS analysis and forecasting are becoming prevalent. This paper briefly describes and compiles suitable algorithms for TS regression task. We compare these algorithms against each other and the classic ARIMA method using diverse datasets: complete data, data with outliers, and data with missing values. The focus is on forecasting accuracy, particularly for long-term predictions. This research aids in selecting the most appropriate algorithm based on forecasting needs and data characteristics.

TimesBERT: A BERT-Style Foundation Model for Time Series Understanding

Time series analysis is crucial in diverse scenarios. Beyond forecasting, considerable real-world tasks are categorized into classification, imputation, and anomaly detection, underscoring different capabilities termed time series understanding in this paper. While GPT-style models have been positioned as foundation models for time series forecasting, the BERT-style architecture, which has made significant advances in natural language understanding, has not been fully unlocked for time series understanding, possibly attributed to the undesirable dropout of essential elements of BERT. In this paper, inspired by the shared multi-granularity structure between multivariate time series and multisentence documents, we design TimesBERT to learn generic representations of time series including temporal patterns and variate-centric characteristics. In addition to a natural adaptation of masked modeling, we propose a parallel task of functional token prediction to embody vital multi-granularity structures. Our model is pre-trained on 260 billion time points across diverse domains. Leveraging multi-granularity representations, TimesBERT achieves state-of-the-art performance across four typical downstream understanding tasks, outperforming task-specific models and language pre-trained backbones, positioning it as a versatile foundation model for time series understanding.

Filtering through a topological lens: homology for point processes on the time-frequency plane

We introduce a very general approach to the analysis of signals from their noisy measurements from the perspective of Topological Data Analysis (TDA). While TDA has emerged as a powerful analytical tool for data with pronounced topological structures, here we demonstrate its applicability for general problems of signal processing, without any a-priori geometric feature. Our methods are well-suited to a wide array of time-dependent signals in different scientific domains, with acoustic signals being a particularly important application. We invoke time-frequency representations of such signals, focusing on their zeros which are gaining salience as a signal processing tool in view of their stability properties. Leveraging state-of-the-art topological concepts, such as stable and minimal volumes, we develop a complete suite of TDA-based methods to explore the delicate stochastic geometry of these zeros, capturing signals based on the disruption they cause to this rigid, hyperuniform spatial structure. Unlike classical spatial data tools, TDA is able to capture the full spectrum of the stochastic geometry of the zeros, thereby leading to powerful inferential outcomes that are underpinned by a principled statistical foundation. This is reflected in the power and versatility of our applications, which include competitive performance in processing. a wide variety of audio signals (esp. in low SNR regimes), effective detection and reconstruction of gravitational wave signals (a reputed signal processing challenge with non-Gaussian noise), and medical time series data from EEGs, indicating a wide horizon for the approach and methods introduced in this paper.