Predicting Temperature of Major Cities Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Currently, the issue that concerns the world leaders most is climate change for its effect on agriculture, environment and economies of daily life. So, to combat this, temperature prediction with strong accuracy is vital. So far, the most effective widely used measure for such forecasting is Numerical weather prediction (NWP) which is a mathematical model that needs broad data from different applications to make predictions. This expensive, time and labor consuming work can be minimized through making such predictions using Machine learning algorithms. Using the database made by University of Dayton which consists the change of temperature in major cities we used the Time Series Analysis method where we use LSTM for the purpose of turning existing data into a tool for future prediction. LSTM takes the long-term data as well as any short-term exceptions or anomalies that may have occurred and calculates trend, seasonality and the stationarity of a data. By using models such as ARIMA, SARIMA, Prophet with the concept of RNN and LSTM we can, filter out any abnormalities, preprocess the data compare it with previous trends and make a prediction of future trends. Also, seasonality and stationarity help us analyze the reoccurrence or repeat over one year variable and removes the constrain of time in which the data was dependent so see the general changes that are predicted. By doing so we managed to make prediction of the temperature of different cities during any time in future based on available data and built a method of accurate prediction. This document contains our methodology for being able to make such predictions.

ISLAND: Informing Brightness and Surface Temperature Through a Land Cover-based Interpolator

Cloud occlusion is a common problem in the field of remote sensing, particularly for thermal infrared imaging. Remote sensing thermal instruments onboard operational satellites are supposed to enable frequent and high-resolution observations over land; unfortunately, clouds adversely affect thermal signals by blocking outgoing longwave radiation emission from Earth's surface, interfering with the retrieved ground emission temperature. Such cloud contamination severely reduces the set of serviceable thermal images for downstream applications, making it impractical to perform intricate time-series analysis of land surface temperature (LST). In this paper, we introduce a novel method to remove cloud occlusions from Landsat 8 LST images. We call our method ISLAND, an acronym for Informing Brightness and Surface Temperature Through a Land Cover-based Interpolator. Our approach uses thermal infrared images from Landsat 8 (at 30 m resolution with 16-day revisit cycles) and the NLCD land cover dataset. Inspired by Tobler's first law of Geography, ISLAND predicts occluded brightness temperature and LST through a set of spatio-temporal filters that perform distance-weighted spatio-temporal interpolation. A critical feature of ISLAND is that the filters are land cover-class aware, making it particularly advantageous in complex urban settings with heterogeneous land cover types and distributions. Through qualitative and quantitative analysis, we show that ISLAND achieves robust reconstruction performance across a variety of cloud occlusion and surface land cover conditions, and with a high spatio-temporal resolution. We provide a public dataset of 20 U.S. cities with pre-computed ISLAND thermal infrared and LST outputs. Using several case studies, we demonstrate that ISLAND opens the door to a multitude of high-impact urban and environmental applications across the continental United States.

From Text to Trends: A Unique Garden Analytics Perspective on the Future of Modern Agriculture

Data-driven insights are essential for modern agriculture. This research paper introduces a machine learning framework designed to improve how we educate and reach out to people in the field of horticulture. The framework relies on data from the Horticulture Online Help Desk (HOHD), which is like a big collection of questions from people who love gardening and are part of the Extension Master Gardener Program (EMGP). This framework has two main parts. First, it uses special computer programs (machine learning models) to sort questions into categories. This helps us quickly send each question to the right expert, so we can answer it faster. Second, it looks at when questions are asked and uses that information to guess how many questions we might get in the future and what they will be about. This helps us plan on topics that will be really important. It's like knowing what questions will be popular in the coming months. We also take into account where the questions come from by looking at the Zip Code. This helps us make research that fits the challenges faced by gardeners in different places. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning techniques to predict trends in horticulture by analyzing textual queries from homeowners. We show that NLP, classification, and time series analysis can be used to identify patterns in homeowners' queries and predict future trends in horticulture. Our results suggest that machine learning could be used to predict trends in other agricultural sectors as well. If large-scale agriculture industries curate and maintain a comparable repository of textual data, the potential for trend prediction and strategic agricultural planning could be revolutionized. This convergence of technology and agriculture offers a promising pathway for the future of sustainable farming and data-informed agricultural practices

A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. Approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: Forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and, finally, discuss mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting both the foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

TimePool: Visually Answer "Which and When" Questions On Univariate Time Series

When exploring time series datasets, analysts often pose "which and when" questions. For example, with world life expectancy data over one hundred years, they may inquire about the top 10 countries in life expectancy and the time period when they achieved this status, or which countries have had longer life expectancy than Ireland and when. This paper proposes TimePool, a new visualization prototype, to address this need for univariate time series analysis. It allows users to construct interactive "which and when" queries and visually explore the results for insights.

A Review of Open Source Software Tools for Time Series Analysis

Time series data is used in a wide range of real world applications. In a variety of domains , detailed analysis of time series data (via Forecasting and Anomaly Detection) leads to a better understanding of how events associated with a specific time instance behave. Time Series Analysis (TSA) is commonly performed with plots and traditional models. Machine Learning (ML) approaches , on the other hand , have seen an increase in the state of the art for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection because they provide comparable results when time and data constraints are met. A number of time series toolboxes are available that offer rich interfaces to specific model classes (ARIMA/filters , neural networks) or framework interfaces to isolated time series modelling tasks (forecasting , feature extraction , annotation , classification). Nonetheless , open source machine learning capabilities for time series remain limited , and existing libraries are frequently incompatible with one another. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise and user friendly overview of the most important open source tools for time series analysis. This article examines two related toolboxes (1) forecasting and (2) anomaly detection. This paper describes a typical Time Series Analysis (TSA) framework with an architecture and lists the main features of TSA framework. The tools are categorized based on the criteria of analysis tasks completed , data preparation methods employed , and evaluation methods for results generated. This paper presents quantitative analysis and discusses the current state of actively developed open source Time Series Analysis frameworks. Overall , this article considered 60 time series analysis tools , and 32 of which provided forecasting modules , and 21 packages included anomaly detection.

Evaluating Explanation Methods for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Multivariate time series classification is an important computational task arising in applications where data is recorded over time and over multiple channels. For example, a smartwatch can record the acceleration and orientation of a person's motion, and these signals are recorded as multivariate time series. We can classify this data to understand and predict human movement and various properties such as fitness levels. In many applications classification alone is not enough, we often need to classify but also understand what the model learns (e.g., why was a prediction given, based on what information in the data). The main focus of this paper is on analysing and evaluating explanation methods tailored to Multivariate Time Series Classification (MTSC). We focus on saliency-based explanation methods that can point out the most relevant channels and time series points for the classification decision. We analyse two popular and accurate multivariate time series classifiers, ROCKET and dResNet, as well as two popular explanation methods, SHAP and dCAM. We study these methods on 3 synthetic datasets and 2 real-world datasets and provide a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the explanations provided. We find that flattening the multivariate datasets by concatenating the channels works as well as using multivariate classifiers directly and adaptations of SHAP for MTSC work quite well. Additionally, we also find that the popular synthetic datasets we used are not suitable for time series analysis.

Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting with Bayesian Modeling

We encounter time series data in many domains such as finance, physics, business, and weather. One of the main tasks of time series analysis, one that helps to take informed decisions under uncertainty, is forecasting. Time series are often hierarchically structured, e.g., a company sales might be broken down into different regions, and each region into different stores. In some cases the number of series in the hierarchy is too big to fit in a single model to produce forecasts in relevant time, and a decentralized approach is beneficial. One way to do this is to train independent forecasting models for each series and for some summary statistics series implied by the hierarchy (e.g. the sum of all series) and to pass those models to a reconciliation algorithm to improve those forecasts by sharing information between the series. In this work we focus on the reconciliation step, and propose a method to do so from a Bayesian perspective - Bayesian forecast reconciliation. We also define the common case of linear Gaussian reconciliation, where the forecasts are Gaussian and the hierarchy has linear structure, and show that we can compute reconciliation in closed form. We evaluate these methods on synthetic and real data sets, and compare them to other work in this field.

Predict the Future from the Past? On the Temporal Data Distribution Shift in Financial Sentiment Classifications

Temporal data distribution shift is prevalent in the financial text. How can a financial sentiment analysis system be trained in a volatile market environment that can accurately infer sentiment and be robust to temporal data distribution shifts? In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on the financial sentiment analysis system under temporal data distribution shifts using a real-world financial social media dataset that spans three years. We find that the fine-tuned models suffer from general performance degradation in the presence of temporal distribution shifts. Furthermore, motivated by the unique temporal nature of the financial text, we propose a novel method that combines out-of-distribution detection with time series modeling for temporal financial sentiment analysis. Experimental results show that the proposed method enhances the model's capability to adapt to evolving temporal shifts in a volatile financial market.

NetTiSA: Extended IP Flow with Time-series Features for Universal Bandwidth-constrained High-speed Network Traffic Classification

Network traffic monitoring based on IP Flows is a standard monitoring approach that can be deployed to various network infrastructures, even the large IPS-based networks connecting millions of people. Since flow records traditionally contain only limited information (addresses, transport ports, and amount of exchanged data), they are also commonly extended for additional features that enable network traffic analysis with high accuracy. Nevertheless, the flow extensions are often too large or hard to compute, which limits their deployment only to smaller-sized networks. This paper proposes a novel extended IP flow called NetTiSA (Network Time Series Analysed), which is based on the analysis of the time series of packet sizes. By thoroughly testing 25 different network classification tasks, we show the broad applicability and high usability of NetTiSA, which often outperforms the best-performing related works. For practical deployment, we also consider the sizes of flows extended for NetTiSA and evaluate the performance impacts of its computation in the flow exporter. The novel feature set proved universal and deployable to high-speed ISP networks with 100\,Gbps lines; thus, it enables accurate and widespread network security protection.