Circuit Fingerprints: How Answer Tokens Encode Their Geometrical Path

Circuit discovery and activation steering in transformers have developed as separate research threads, yet both operate on the same representational space. Are they two views of the same underlying structure? We show they follow a single geometric principle: answer tokens, processed in isolation, encode the directions that would produce them. This Circuit Fingerprint hypothesis enables circuit discovery without gradients or causal intervention -- recovering comparable structure to gradient-based methods through geometric alignment alone. We validate this on standard benchmarks (IOI, SVA, MCQA) across four model families, achieving circuit discovery performance comparable to gradient-based methods. The same directions that identify circuit components also enable controlled steering -- achieving 69.8\% emotion classification accuracy versus 53.1\% for instruction prompting while preserving factual accuracy. Beyond method development, this read-write duality reveals that transformer circuits are fundamentally geometric structures: interpretability and controllability are two facets of the same object.

Multi-Agent Causal Reasoning System for Error Pattern Rule Automation in Vehicles

Modern vehicles generate thousands of different discrete events known as Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs). Automotive manufacturers use Boolean combinations of these codes, called error patterns (EPs), to characterize system faults and ensure vehicle safety. Yet, EP rules are still manually handcrafted by domain experts, a process that is expensive and prone to errors as vehicle complexity grows. This paper introduces CAREP (Causal Automated Reasoning for Error Patterns), a multi-agent system that automatizes the generation of EP rules from high-dimensional event sequences of DTCs. CAREP combines a causal discovery agent that identifies potential DTC-EP relations, a contextual information agent that integrates metadata and descriptions, and an orchestrator agent that synthesizes candidate boolean rules together with interpretable reasoning traces. Evaluation on a large-scale automotive dataset with over 29,100 unique DTCs and 474 error patterns demonstrates that CAREP can automatically and accurately discover the unknown EP rules, outperforming LLM-only baselines while providing transparent causal explanations. By uniting practical causal discovery and agent-based reasoning, CAREP represents a step toward fully automated fault diagnostics, enabling scalable, interpretable, and cost-efficient vehicle maintenance.

In-the-Wild Model Organisms: Mitigating Undesirable Emergent Behaviors in Production LLM Post-Training via Data Attribution

We propose activation-based data attribution, a method that traces behavioral changes in post-trained language models to responsible training datapoints. By computing activation-difference vectors for both test prompts and preference pairs and ranking by cosine similarity, we identify datapoints that cause specific behaviors and validate these attributions causally by retraining with modified data. Clustering behavior-datapoint similarity matrices also enables unsupervised discovery of emergent behaviors. Applying this to OLMo 2's production DPO training, we surfaced distractor-triggered compliance: a harmful behavior where the model complies with dangerous requests when benign formatting instructions are appended. Filtering top-ranked datapoints reduces this behavior by 63% while switching their labels achieves 78%. Our method outperforms gradient-based attribution and LLM-judge baselines while being over 10 times cheaper than both. This in-the-wild model organism - emerging from contaminated preference data rather than deliberate injection - provides a realistic benchmark for safety techniques.

Causal Preference Elicitation

We propose causal preference elicitation, a Bayesian framework for expert-in-the-loop causal discovery that actively queries local edge relations to concentrate a posterior over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). From any black-box observational posterior, we model noisy expert judgments with a three-way likelihood over edge existence and direction. Posterior inference uses a flexible particle approximation, and queries are selected by an efficient expected information gain criterion on the expert's categorical response. Experiments on synthetic graphs, protein signaling data, and a human gene perturbation benchmark show faster posterior concentration and improved recovery of directed effects under tight query budgets.

Ordering-based Causal Discovery via Generalized Score Matching

Learning DAG structures from purely observational data remains a long-standing challenge across scientific domains. An emerging line of research leverages the score of the data distribution to initially identify a topological order of the underlying DAG via leaf node detection and subsequently performs edge pruning for graph recovery. This paper extends the score matching framework for causal discovery, which is originally designated for continuous data, and introduces a novel leaf discriminant criterion based on the discrete score function. Through simulated and real-world experiments, we demonstrate that our theory enables accurate inference of true causal orders from observed discrete data and the identified ordering can significantly boost the accuracy of existing causal discovery baselines on nearly all of the settings.

Dynamic Expert-Guided Model Averaging for Causal Discovery

Understanding causal relationships is critical for healthcare. Accurate causal models provide a means to enhance the interpretability of predictive models, and furthermore a basis for counterfactual and interventional reasoning and the estimation of treatment effects. However, would-be practitioners of causal discovery face a dizzying array of algorithms without a clear best choice. This abundance of competitive algorithms makes ensembling a natural choice for practical applications. At the same time, real-world use cases frequently face challenges that violate the assumptions of common causal discovery algorithms, forcing heavy reliance on expert knowledge. Inspired by recent work on dynamically requested expert knowledge and LLMs as experts, we present a flexible model averaging method leveraging dynamically requested expert knowledge to ensemble a diverse array of causal discovery algorithms. Experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method with imperfect experts such as LLMs on both clean and noisy data. We also analyze the impact of different degrees of expert correctness and assess the capabilities of LLMs for clinical causal discovery, providing valuable insights for practitioners.

VERA: Identifying and Leveraging Visual Evidence Retrieval Heads in Long-Context Understanding

While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have shown promise in textual understanding, they face significant challenges when handling long context and complex reasoning tasks. In this paper, we dissect the internal mechanisms governing long-context processing in VLMs to understand their performance bottlenecks. Through the lens of attention analysis, we identify specific Visual Evidence Retrieval (VER) Heads - a sparse, dynamic set of attention heads critical for locating visual cues during reasoning, distinct from static OCR heads. We demonstrate that these heads are causal to model performance; masking them leads to significant degradation. Leveraging this discovery, we propose VERA (Visual Evidence Retrieval Augmentation), a training-free framework that detects model uncertainty (i.e., entropy) to trigger the explicit verbalization of visual evidence attended by VER heads. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that VERA significantly improves long-context understanding of open-source VLMs: it yields an average relative improvement of 21.3% on Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct and 20.1% on GLM-4.1V-Thinking across five benchmarks.

A Causal Perspective for Enhancing Jailbreak Attack and Defense

Uncovering the mechanisms behind "jailbreaks" in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for enhancing their safety and reliability, yet these mechanisms remain poorly understood. Existing studies predominantly analyze jailbreak prompts by probing latent representations, often overlooking the causal relationships between interpretable prompt features and jailbreak occurrences. In this work, we propose Causal Analyst, a framework that integrates LLMs into data-driven causal discovery to identify the direct causes of jailbreaks and leverage them for both attack and defense. We introduce a comprehensive dataset comprising 35k jailbreak attempts across seven LLMs, systematically constructed from 100 attack templates and 50 harmful queries, annotated with 37 meticulously designed human-readable prompt features. By jointly training LLM-based prompt encoding and GNN-based causal graph learning, we reconstruct causal pathways linking prompt features to jailbreak responses. Our analysis reveals that specific features, such as "Positive Character" and "Number of Task Steps", act as direct causal drivers of jailbreaks. We demonstrate the practical utility of these insights through two applications: (1) a Jailbreaking Enhancer that targets identified causal features to significantly boost attack success rates on public benchmarks, and (2) a Guardrail Advisor that utilizes the learned causal graph to extract true malicious intent from obfuscated queries. Extensive experiments, including baseline comparisons and causal structure validation, confirm the robustness of our causal analysis and its superiority over non-causal approaches. Our results suggest that analyzing jailbreak features from a causal perspective is an effective and interpretable approach for improving LLM reliability. Our code is available at https://github.com/Master-PLC/Causal-Analyst.

A Doubly Robust Machine Learning Approach for Disentangling Treatment Effect Heterogeneity with Functional Outcomes

Causal inference is paramount for understanding the effects of interventions, yet extracting personalized insights from increasingly complex data remains a significant challenge for modern machine learning. This is the case, in particular, when considering functional outcomes observed over a continuous domain (e.g., time, or space). Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects, known as CATE, has emerged as a crucial tool for personalized decision-making, but existing meta-learning frameworks are largely limited to scalar outcomes, failing to provide satisfying results in scientific applications that leverage the rich, continuous information encoded in functional data. Here, we introduce FOCaL (Functional Outcome Causal Learning), a novel, doubly robust meta-learner specifically engineered to estimate a functional heterogeneous treatment effect (F-CATE). FOCaL integrates advanced functional regression techniques for both outcome modeling and functional pseudo-outcome reconstruction, thereby enabling the direct and robust estimation of F-CATE. We provide a rigorous theoretical derivation of FOCaL, demonstrate its performance and robustness compared to existing non-robust functional methods through comprehensive simulation studies, and illustrate its practical utility on diverse real-world functional datasets. FOCaL advances the capabilities of machine intelligence to infer nuanced, individualized causal effects from complex data, paving the way for more precise and trustworthy AI systems in personalized medicine, adaptive policy design, and fundamental scientific discovery.

CauScientist: Teaching LLMs to Respect Data for Causal Discovery

Causal discovery is fundamental to scientific understanding and reliable decision-making. Existing approaches face critical limitations: purely data-driven methods suffer from statistical indistinguishability and modeling assumptions, while recent LLM-based methods either ignore statistical evidence or incorporate unverified priors that can mislead result. To this end, we propose CauScientist, a collaborative framework that synergizes LLMs as hypothesis-generating "data scientists" with probabilistic statistics as rigorous "verifiers". CauScientist employs hybrid initialization to select superior starting graphs, iteratively refines structures through LLM-proposed modifications validated by statistical criteria, and maintains error memory to guide efficient search space. Experiments demonstrate that CauScientist substantially outperforms purely data-driven baselines, achieving up to 53.8% F1 score improvement and enhancing recall from 35.0% to 100.0%. Notably, while standalone LLM performance degrades with graph complexity, CauScientist reduces structural hamming distance (SHD) by 44.0% compared to Qwen3-32B on 37-node graphs. Our project page is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauScientist.