Multi-Agent Causal Reasoning System for Error Pattern Rule Automation in Vehicles

Modern vehicles generate thousands of different discrete events known as Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs). Automotive manufacturers use Boolean combinations of these codes, called error patterns (EPs), to characterize system faults and ensure vehicle safety. Yet, EP rules are still manually handcrafted by domain experts, a process that is expensive and prone to errors as vehicle complexity grows. This paper introduces CAREP (Causal Automated Reasoning for Error Patterns), a multi-agent system that automatizes the generation of EP rules from high-dimensional event sequences of DTCs. CAREP combines a causal discovery agent that identifies potential DTC-EP relations, a contextual information agent that integrates metadata and descriptions, and an orchestrator agent that synthesizes candidate boolean rules together with interpretable reasoning traces. Evaluation on a large-scale automotive dataset with over 29,100 unique DTCs and 474 error patterns demonstrates that CAREP can automatically and accurately discover the unknown EP rules, outperforming LLM-only baselines while providing transparent causal explanations. By uniting practical causal discovery and agent-based reasoning, CAREP represents a step toward fully automated fault diagnostics, enabling scalable, interpretable, and cost-efficient vehicle maintenance.

Transforming Vehicle Diagnostics: A Multimodal Approach to Error Patterns Prediction

Accurately diagnosing and predicting vehicle malfunctions is crucial for maintenance and safety in the automotive industry. While modern diagnostic systems primarily rely on sequences of vehicular Diagnostic Trouble Codes (DTCs) registered in On-Board Diagnostic (OBD) systems, they often overlook valuable contextual information such as raw sensory data (e.g., temperature, humidity, and pressure). This contextual data, crucial for domain experts to classify vehicle failures, introduces unique challenges due to its complexity and the noisy nature of real-world data. This paper presents BiCarFormer: the first multimodal approach to multi-label sequence classification of error codes into error patterns that integrates DTC sequences and environmental conditions. BiCarFormer is a bidirectional Transformer model tailored for vehicle event sequences, employing embedding fusions and a co-attention mechanism to capture the relationships between diagnostic codes and environmental data. Experimental results on a challenging real-world automotive dataset with 22,137 error codes and 360 error patterns demonstrate that our approach significantly improves classification performance compared to models that rely solely on DTC sequences and traditional sequence models. This work highlights the importance of incorporating contextual environmental information for more accurate and robust vehicle diagnostics, hence reducing maintenance costs and enhancing automation processes in the automotive industry.

TRACE: Scalable Amortized Causal Discovery from Single Sequences via Autoregressive Density Estimation

We study causal discovery from a single observed sequence of discrete events generated by a stochastic process, as encountered in vehicle logs, manufacturing systems, or patient trajectories. This regime is particularly challenging due to the absence of repeated samples, high dimensionality, and long-range temporal dependencies of the single observation during inference. We introduce TRACE, a scalable framework that repurposes autoregressive models as pretrained density estimators for conditional mutual information estimation. TRACE infers the summary causal graph between event types in a sequence, scaling linearly with the event vocabulary and supporting delayed causal effects, while being fully parallel on GPUs. We establish its theoretical identifiability under imperfect autoregressive models. Experiments demonstrate robust performance across different baselines and varying vocabulary sizes including an application to root-cause analysis in vehicle diagnostics with over 29,100 event types.

Harnessing Event Sensory Data for Error Pattern Prediction in Vehicles: A Language Model Approach

In this paper, we draw an analogy between processing natural languages and processing multivariate event streams from vehicles in order to predict $\textit{when}$ and $\textit{what}$ error pattern is most likely to occur in the future for a given car. Our approach leverages the temporal dynamics and contextual relationships of our event data from a fleet of cars. Event data is composed of discrete values of error codes as well as continuous values such as time and mileage. Modelled by two causal Transformers, we can anticipate vehicle failures and malfunctions before they happen. Thus, we introduce $\textit{CarFormer}$, a Transformer model trained via a new self-supervised learning strategy, and $\textit{EPredictor}$, an autoregressive Transformer decoder model capable of predicting $\textit{when}$ and $\textit{what}$ error pattern will most likely occur after some error code apparition. Despite the challenges of high cardinality of event types, their unbalanced frequency of appearance and limited labelled data, our experimental results demonstrate the excellent predictive ability of our novel model. Specifically, with sequences of $160$ error codes on average, our model is able with only half of the error codes to achieve $80\%$ F1 score for predicting $\textit{what}$ error pattern will occur and achieves an average absolute error of $58.4 \pm 13.2$h $\textit{when}$ forecasting the time of occurrence, thus enabling confident predictive maintenance and enhancing vehicle safety.