Adaptive Structured Pruning of Convolutional Neural Networks for Time Series Classification

Deep learning models for Time Series Classification (TSC) have achieved strong predictive performance but their high computational and memory requirements often limit deployment on resource-constrained devices. While structured pruning can address these issues by removing redundant filters, existing methods typically rely on manually tuned hyperparameters such as pruning ratios which limit scalability and generalization across datasets. In this work, we propose Dynamic Structured Pruning (DSP), a fully automatic, structured pruning framework for convolution-based TSC models. DSP introduces an instance-wise sparsity loss during training to induce channel-level sparsity, followed by a global activation analysis to identify and prune redundant filters without needing any predefined pruning ratio. This work tackles computational bottlenecks of deep TSC models for deployment on resource-constrained devices. We validate DSP on 128 UCR datasets using two different deep state-of-the-art architectures: LITETime and InceptionTime. Our approach achieves an average compression of 58% for LITETime and 75% for InceptionTime architectures while maintaining classification accuracy. Redundancy analyses confirm that DSP produces compact and informative representations, offering a practical path for scalable and efficient deep TSC deployment.

Rethinking the Role of LLMs in Time Series Forecasting

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting comparable performance without LLMs. We show that such conclusions stem from limited evaluation settings and do not hold at scale. We conduct a large-scale study of LLM-based TSF (LLM4TSF) across 8 billion observations, 17 forecasting scenarios, 4 horizons, multiple alignment strategies, and both in-domain and out-of-domain settings. Our results demonstrate that \emph{LLM4TS indeed improves forecasting performance}, with especially large gains in cross-domain generalization. Pre-alignment outperforming post-alignment in over 90\% of tasks. Both pretrained knowledge and model architecture of LLMs contribute and play complementary roles: pretraining is critical under distribution shifts, while architecture excels at modeling complex temporal dynamics. Moreover, under large-scale mixed distributions, a fully intact LLM becomes indispensable, as confirmed by token-level routing analysis and prompt-based improvements. Overall, Our findings overturn prior negative assessments, establish clear conditions under which LLMs are not only useful, and provide practical guidance for effective model design. We release our code at https://github.com/EIT-NLP/LLM4TSF.

Deep Modeling and Interpretation for Bladder Cancer Classification

Deep models based on vision transformer (ViT) and convolutional neural network (CNN) have demonstrated remarkable performance on natural datasets. However, these models may not be similar in medical imaging, where abnormal regions cover only a small portion of the image. This challenge motivates this study to investigate the latest deep models for bladder cancer classification tasks. We propose the following to evaluate these deep models: 1) standard classification using 13 models (four CNNs and eight transormer-based models), 2) calibration analysis to examine if these models are well calibrated for bladder cancer classification, and 3) we use GradCAM++ to evaluate the interpretability of these models for clinical diagnosis. We simulate $\sim 300$ experiments on a publicly multicenter bladder cancer dataset, and the experimental results demonstrate that the ConvNext series indicate limited generalization ability to classify bladder cancer images (e.g., $\sim 60\%$ accuracy). In addition, ViTs show better calibration effects compared to ConvNext and swin transformer series. We also involve test time augmentation to improve the models interpretability. Finally, no model provides a one-size-fits-all solution for a feasible interpretable model. ConvNext series are suitable for in-distribution samples, while ViT and its variants are suitable for interpreting out-of-distribution samples.

T-LLM: Teaching Large Language Models to Forecast Time Series via Temporal Distillation

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in decision-making across many real-world applications. Unlike data in vision and language domains, time series data is inherently tied to the evolution of underlying processes and can only accumulate as real-world time progresses, limiting the effectiveness of scale-driven pretraining alone. This time-bound constraint poses a challenge for enabling large language models (LLMs) to acquire forecasting capability, as existing approaches primarily rely on representation-level alignment or inference-time temporal modules rather than explicitly teaching forecasting behavior to the LLM. We propose T-LLM, a temporal distillation framework that equips general-purpose LLMs with time series forecasting capability by transferring predictive behavior from a lightweight temporal teacher during training. The teacher combines trend modeling and frequency-domain analysis to provide structured temporal supervision, and is removed entirely at inference, leaving the LLM as the sole forecasting model. Experiments on benchmark datasets and infectious disease forecasting tasks demonstrate that T-LLM consistently outperforms existing LLM-based forecasting methods under full-shot, few-shot, and zero-shot settings, while enabling a simple and efficient deployment pipeline.

Uncertainty in Federated Granger Causality: From Origins to Systemic Consequences

Granger Causality (GC) provides a rigorous framework for learning causal structures from time-series data. Recent federated variants of GC have targeted distributed infrastructure applications (e.g., smart grids) with distributed clients that generate high-dimensional data bound by data-sovereignty constraints. However, Federated GC algorithms only yield deterministic point estimates of causality and neglect uncertainty. This paper establishes the first methodology for rigorously quantifying uncertainty and its propagation within federated GC frameworks. We systematically classify sources of uncertainty, explicitly differentiating aleatoric (data noise) from epistemic (model variability) effects. We derive closed-form recursions that model the evolution of uncertainty through client-server interactions and identify four novel cross-covariance components that couple data uncertainties with model parameter uncertainties across the federated architecture. We also define rigorous convergence conditions for these uncertainty recursions and obtain explicit steady-state variances for both server and client model parameters. Our convergence analysis demonstrates that steady-state variances depend exclusively on client data statistics, thus eliminating dependence on initial epistemic priors and enhancing robustness. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and real-world industrial datasets demonstrate that explicitly characterizing uncertainty significantly improves the reliability and interpretability of federated causal inference.

TemporalBench: A Benchmark for Evaluating LLM-Based Agents on Contextual and Event-Informed Time Series Tasks

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

LLM-Assisted Logic Rule Learning: Scaling Human Expertise for Time Series Anomaly Detection

Time series anomaly detection is critical for supply chain management to take proactive operations, but faces challenges: classical unsupervised anomaly detection based on exploiting data patterns often yields results misaligned with business requirements and domain knowledge, while manual expert analysis cannot scale to millions of products in the supply chain. We propose a framework that leverages large language models (LLMs) to systematically encode human expertise into interpretable, logic-based rules for detecting anomaly patterns in supply chain time series data. Our approach operates in three stages: 1) LLM-based labeling of training data instructed by domain knowledge, 2) automated generation and iterative improvements of symbolic rules through LLM-driven optimization, and 3) rule augmentation with business-relevant anomaly categories supported by LLMs to enhance interpretability. The experiment results showcase that our approach outperforms the unsupervised learning methods in both detection accuracy and interpretability. Furthermore, compared to direct LLM deployment for time series anomaly detection, our approach provides consistent, deterministic results with low computational latency and cost, making it ideal for production deployment. The proposed framework thus demonstrates how LLMs can bridge the gap between scalable automation and expert-driven decision-making in operational settings.

Statistical benchmarking of transformer models in low signal-to-noise time-series forecasting

We study the performance of transformer architectures for multivariate time-series forecasting in low-data regimes consisting of only a few years of daily observations. Using synthetically generated processes with known temporal and cross-sectional dependency structures and varying signal-to-noise ratios, we conduct bootstrapped experiments that enable direct evaluation via out-of-sample correlations with the optimal ground-truth predictor. We show that two-way attention transformers, which alternate between temporal and cross-sectional self-attention, can outperform standard baselines-Lasso, boosting methods, and fully connected multilayer perceptrons-across a wide range of settings, including low signal-to-noise regimes. We further introduce a dynamic sparsification procedure for attention matrices applied during training, and demonstrate that it becomes significantly effective in noisy environments, where the correlation between the target variable and the optimal predictor is on the order of a few percent. Analysis of the learned attention patterns reveals interpretable structure and suggests connections to sparsity-inducing regularization in classical regression, providing insight into why these models generalize effectively under noise.

Benchmarking Anomaly Detection Across Heterogeneous Cloud Telemetry Datasets

Anomaly detection is important for keeping cloud systems reliable and stable. Deep learning has improved time-series anomaly detection, but most models are evaluated on one dataset at a time. This raises questions about whether these models can handle different types of telemetry, especially in large-scale and high-dimensional environments. In this study, we evaluate four deep learning models, GRU, TCN, Transformer, and TSMixer. We also include Isolation Forest as a classical baseline. The models are tested across four telemetry datasets: the Numenta Anomaly Benchmark, Microsoft Cloud Monitoring dataset, Exathlon dataset, and IBM Console dataset. These datasets differ in structure, dimensionality, and labelling strategy. They include univariate time series, synthetic multivariate workloads, and real-world production telemetry with over 100,000 features. We use a unified training and evaluation pipeline across all datasets. The evaluation includes NAB-style metrics to capture early detection behaviour for datasets where anomalies persist over contiguous time intervals. This enables window-based scoring in settings where anomalies occur over contiguous time intervals, even when labels are recorded at the point level. The unified setup enables consistent analysis of model behaviour under shared scoring and calibration assumptions. Our results demonstrate that anomaly detection performance in cloud systems is governed not only by model architecture, but critically by calibration stability and feature-space geometry. By releasing our preprocessing pipelines, benchmark configuration, and evaluation artifacts, we aim to support reproducible and deployment-aware evaluation of anomaly detection systems for cloud environments.

Time-to-Event Transformer to Capture Timing Attention of Events in EHR Time Series

Automatically discovering personalized sequential events from large-scale time-series data is crucial for enabling precision medicine in clinical research, yet it remains a formidable challenge even for contemporary AI models. For example, while transformers capture rich associations, they are mostly agnostic to event timing and ordering, thereby bypassing potential causal reasoning. Intuitively, we need a method capable of evaluating the "degree of alignment" among patient-specific trajectories and identifying their shared patterns, i.e., the significant events in a consistent sequence. This necessitates treating timing as a true \emph{computable} dimension, allowing models to assign ``relative timestamps'' to candidate events beyond their observed physical times. In this work, we introduce LITT, a novel Timing-Transformer architecture that enables temporary alignment of sequential events on a virtual ``relative timeline'', thereby enabling \emph{event-timing-focused attention} and personalized interpretations of clinical trajectories. Its interpretability and effectiveness are validated on real-world longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients to predict the onset timing of cardiotoxicity-induced heart disease. Furthermore, LITT outperforms both the benchmark and state-of-the-art survival analysis methods on public datasets, positioning it as a significant step forward for precision medicine in clinical AI.