TFRBench: A Reasoning Benchmark for Evaluating Forecasting Systems

We introduce TFRBench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate the reasoning capabilities of forecasting systems. Traditionally, time-series forecasting has been evaluated solely on numerical accuracy, treating foundation models as ``black boxes.'' Unlike existing benchmarks, TFRBench provides a protocol for evaluating the reasoning generated by forecasting systems--specifically their analysis of cross-channel dependencies, trends, and external events. To enable this, we propose a systematic multi-agent framework that utilizes an iterative verification loop to synthesize numerically grounded reasoning traces. Spanning ten datasets across five domains, our evaluation confirms that this reasoning is causally effective; useful for evaluation; and prompting LLMs with our generated traces significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to direct numerical prediction (e.g., avg. $\sim40.2\%\to56.6\%)$, validating the quality of our reasoning. Conversely, benchmarking experiments reveal that off-the-shelf LLMs consistently struggle with both reasoning (lower LLM-as-a-Judge scores) and numerical forecasting, frequently failing to capture domain-specific dynamics. TFRBench thus establishes a new standard for interpretable, reasoning-based evaluation in time-series forecasting. Our benchmark is available at: https://tfrbench.github.io

AlignMamba-2: Enhancing Multimodal Fusion and Sentiment Analysis with Modality-Aware Mamba

In the era of large-scale pre-trained models, effectively adapting general knowledge to specific affective computing tasks remains a challenge, particularly regarding computational efficiency and multimodal heterogeneity. While Transformer-based methods have excelled at modeling inter-modal dependencies, their quadratic computational complexity limits their use with long-sequence data. Mamba-based models have emerged as a computationally efficient alternative; however, their inherent sequential scanning mechanism struggles to capture the global, non-sequential relationships that are crucial for effective cross-modal alignment. To address these limitations, we propose \textbf{AlignMamba-2}, an effective and efficient framework for multimodal fusion and sentiment analysis. Our approach introduces a dual alignment strategy that regularizes the model using both Optimal Transport distance and Maximum Mean Discrepancy, promoting geometric and statistical consistency between modalities without incurring any inference-time overhead. More importantly, we design a Modality-Aware Mamba layer, which employs a Mixture-of-Experts architecture with modality-specific and modality-shared experts to explicitly handle data heterogeneity during the fusion process. Extensive experiments on four challenging benchmarks, including dynamic time-series (on the CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI datasets) and static image-related tasks (on the NYU-Depth V2 and MVSA-Single datasets), demonstrate that AlignMamba-2 establishes a new state-of-the-art in both effectiveness and efficiency across diverse pattern recognition tasks, ranging from dynamic time-series analysis to static image-text classification.

Constant-Factor Approximation for the Uniform Decision Tree

We resolve a long-standing open question, about the existence of a constant-factor approximation algorithm for the average-case \textsc{Decision Tree} problem with uniform probability distribution over the hypotheses. We answer the question in the affirmative by providing a simple polynomial-time algorithm with approximation ratio of $\frac{2}{1-\sqrt{(e+1)/(2e)}}+ε<11.57$. This improves upon the currently best-known, greedy algorithm which achieves $O(\log n/{\log\log n})$-approximation. The first key ingredient in our analysis is the usage of a decomposition technique known from problems related to \textsc{Hierarchical Clustering} [SODA '17, WALCOM '26], which allows us to decompose the optimal decision tree into a series of objects called separating subfamilies. The second crucial idea is to reduce the subproblem of finding a \textsc{Separating Subfamily} to an instance of the \textsc{Maximum Coverage} problem. To do so, we analyze the properties of cutting cliques into small pieces, which represent pairs of hypotheses to be separated. This allows us to obtain a good approximation for the \textsc{Separating Subfamily} problem, which then enables the design of the approximation algorithm for the original problem.

Fun-TSG: A Function-Driven Multivariate Time Series Generator with Variable-Level Anomaly Labeling

Reliable evaluation of anomaly detection methods in multivariate time series remains an open challenge, largely due to the limitations of existing benchmark datasets. Current resources often lack fine-grained anomaly annotations, do not provide explicit intervariable and temporal dependencies, and offer little insight into the underlying generative mechanisms. These shortcomings hinder the development and rigorous comparison of detection models, especially those targeting interpretable and variable-specific outputs. To address this gap, we introduce Fun-TSG, a fully customizable time series generator designed to support high-quality evaluation of anomaly detection systems. Our tool enables both fully automated generation, based on randomly sampled dependency structures and anomaly types, and manual generation through user-defined equations and anomaly configurations. In both cases, it provides full transparency over the data generation process, including access to ground-truth anomaly labels at the variable and timestamp levels. Fun-TSG supports the creation of diverse, interpretable, and reproducible benchmarking scenarios, enabling fine-grained performance analysis for both classical and modern anomaly detection models.

Dynamic Heartbeat Modeling with Recurrent Neural Networks and Inverse Gaussian Point Process Modeling

Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis is important for the assessment of autonomic cardiovascular regulation. The inverse Gaussian process (IGP) has been widely used for beat-to-beat HRV modeling, as it gives a physiological relevant interpretation of heart depolarization process. A key challenge in IGP-based heartbeat modeling is the accurate estimation of time-varying parameters. In this study, we investigated whether recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can be used for IGP parameter identification and thereby enhance probabilistic modeling of R-R dynamics. Specifically, four representative RNN architectures, namely, GRU, LSTM, Structured State Space sequence model (S4), and Mamba, were evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics. The results demonstrate the possibility of combining neural sequence models with the IGP framework for beat-wise R-R series modeling. This approach provides a flexible basis for probabilistic HRV modeling and for future incorporation of more complex physiological mechanisms and dynamic conditions.

Deep Learning Network-Temporal Models For Traffic Prediction

Time series analysis is critical for emerging net- work intelligent control and management functions. However, existing statistical-based and shallow machine learning models have shown limited prediction capabilities on multivariate time series. The intricate topological interdependency and complex temporal patterns in network data demand new model approaches. In this paper, based on a systematic multivariate time series model study, we present two deep learning models aiming for learning both temporal patterns and network topological correlations at the same time: a customized network-temporal graph attention network (GAT) model and a fine-tuned multi-modal large language model (LLM) with a clustering overture. Both models are studied against an LSTM model that already outperforms the statistical methods. Through extensive training and performance studies on a real-world network dataset, the LLM-based model demonstrates superior overall prediction and generalization performance, while the GAT model shows its strength in reducing prediction variance across the time series and horizons. More detailed analysis also reveals important insights into correlation variability and prediction distribution discrepancies over time series and different prediction horizons.

Controller Design for Structured State-space Models via Contraction Theory

This paper presents an indirect data-driven output feedback controller synthesis for nonlinear systems, leveraging Structured State-space Models (SSMs) as surrogate models. SSMs have emerged as a compelling alternative in modelling time-series data and dynamical systems. They can capture long-term dependencies while maintaining linear computational complexity with respect to the sequence length, in comparison to the quadratic complexity of Transformer-based architectures. The contributions of this work are threefold. We provide the first analysis of controllability and observability of SSMs, which leads to scalable control design via Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) that leverage contraction theory. Moreover, a separation principle for SSMs is established, enabling the independent design of observers and state-feedback controllers while preserving the exponential stability of the closed-loop system. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a numerical example, showcasing nonlinear system identification and the synthesis of an output feedback controller.

Optimizing Multi-Agent Weather Captioning via Text Gradient Descent: A Training-Free Approach with Consensus-Aware Gradient Fusion

Generating interpretable natural language captions from weather time series data remains a significant challenge at the intersection of meteorological science and natural language processing. While recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in time series forecasting and analysis, existing approaches either produce numerical predictions without human-accessible explanations or generate generic descriptions lacking domain-specific depth. We introduce WeatherTGD, a training-free multi-agent framework that reinterprets collaborative caption refinement through the lens of Text Gradient Descent (TGD). Our system deploys three specialized LLM agents including a Statistical Analyst, a Physics Interpreter, and a Meteorology Expert that generate domain-specific textual gradients from weather time series observations. These gradients are aggregated through a novel Consensus-Aware Gradient Fusion mechanism that extracts common signals while preserving unique domain perspectives. The fused gradients then guide an iterative refinement process analogous to gradient descent, where each LLM-generated feedback signal updates the caption toward an optimal solution. Experiments on real-world meteorological datasets demonstrate that WeatherTGD achieves significant improvements in both LLM-based evaluation and human expert evaluation, substantially outperforming existing multi-agent baselines while maintaining computational efficiency through parallel agent execution.

Vocal Prognostic Digital Biomarkers in Monitoring Chronic Heart Failure: A Longitudinal Observational Study

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate which voice features can predict health deterioration in patients with chronic HF. Background: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic condition with progressive deterioration and acute decompensations, often requiring hospitalization and imposing substantial healthcare and economic burdens. Current standard-of-care (SoC) home monitoring, such as weight tracking, lacks predictive accuracy and requires high patient engagement. Voice is a promising non-invasive biomarker, though prior studies have mainly focused on acute HF stages. Methods: In a 2-month longitudinal study, 32 patients with HF collected daily voice recordings and SoC measures of weight and blood pressure at home, with biweekly questionnaires for health status. Acoustic analysis generated detailed vowel and speech features. Time-series features were extracted from aggregated lookback windows (e.g., 7 days) to predict next-day health status. Explainable machine learning with nested cross-validation identified top vocal biomarkers, and a case study illustrated model application. Results: A total of 21,863 recordings were analyzed. Acoustic vowel features showed strong correlations with health status. Time-series voice features within the lookback window outperformed corresponding standard care measures, achieving peak sensitivity and specificity of 0.826 and 0.782 versus 0.783 and 0.567 for SoC metrics. Key prognostic voice features identifying deterioration included delayed energy shift, low energy variability, and higher shimmer variability in vowels, along with reduced speaking and articulation rate, lower phonation ratio, decreased voice quality, and increased formant variability in speech. Conclusion: Voice-based monitoring offers a non-invasive approach to detect early health changes in chronic HF, supporting proactive and personalized care.

YOLOv11 Demystified: A Practical Guide to High-Performance Object Detection

YOLOv11 is the latest iteration in the You Only Look Once (YOLO) series of real-time object detectors, introducing novel architectural modules to improve feature extraction and small-object detection. In this paper, we present a detailed analysis of YOLOv11, including its backbone, neck, and head components. The model key innovations, the C3K2 blocks, Spatial Pyramid Pooling - Fast (SPPF), and C2PSA (Cross Stage Partial with Spatial Attention) modules enhance spatial feature processing while preserving speed. We compare YOLOv11 performance to prior YOLO versions on standard benchmarks, highlighting improvements in mean Average Precision (mAP) and inference speed. Our results demonstrate that YOLOv11 achieves superior accuracy without sacrificing real-time capabilities, making it well-suited for applications in autonomous driving, surveillance, and video analytics.This work formalizes YOLOv11 in a research context, providing a clear reference for future studies.