CAS: A General Algorithm for Online Selective Conformal Prediction with FCR Control

We study the problem of post-selection predictive inference in an online fashion. To avoid devoting resources to unimportant units, a preliminary selection of the current individual before reporting its prediction interval is common and meaningful in online predictive tasks. Since the online selection causes a temporal multiplicity in the selected prediction intervals, it is important to control the real-time false coverage-statement rate (FCR) to measure the averaged miscoverage error. We develop a general framework named CAS (Calibration after Adaptive Selection) that can wrap around any prediction model and online selection rule to output post-selection prediction intervals. If the current individual is selected, we first perform an adaptive selection on historical data to construct a calibration set, then output a conformal prediction interval for the unobserved label. We provide tractable constructions for the calibration set for popular online selection rules. We proved that CAS can achieve an exact selection-conditional coverage guarantee in the finite-sample and distribution-free regimes. For the decision-driven selection rule, including most online multiple-testing procedures, CAS can exactly control the real-time FCR below the target level without any distributional assumptions. For the online selection with symmetric thresholds, we establish the error bound for the control gap of FCR under mild distributional assumptions. To account for the distribution shift in online data, we also embed CAS into some recent dynamic conformal prediction methods and examine the long-run FCR control. Numerical results on both synthetic and real data corroborate that CAS can effectively control FCR around the target level and yield more narrowed prediction intervals over existing baselines across various settings.

EPISODE: Episodic Gradient Clipping with Periodic Resampled Corrections for Federated Learning with Heterogeneous Data

Gradient clipping is an important technique for deep neural networks with exploding gradients, such as recurrent neural networks. Recent studies have shown that the loss functions of these networks do not satisfy the conventional smoothness condition, but instead satisfy a relaxed smoothness condition, i.e., the Lipschitz constant of the gradient scales linearly in terms of the gradient norm. Due to this observation, several gradient clipping algorithms have been developed for nonconvex and relaxed-smooth functions. However, the existing algorithms only apply to the single-machine or multiple-machine setting with homogeneous data across machines. It remains unclear how to design provably efficient gradient clipping algorithms in the general Federated Learning (FL) setting with heterogeneous data and limited communication rounds. In this paper, we design EPISODE, the very first algorithm to solve FL problems with heterogeneous data in the nonconvex and relaxed smoothness setting. The key ingredients of the algorithm are two new techniques called \textit{episodic gradient clipping} and \textit{periodic resampled corrections}. At the beginning of each round, EPISODE resamples stochastic gradients from each client and obtains the global averaged gradient, which is used to (1) determine whether to apply gradient clipping for the entire round and (2) construct local gradient corrections for each client. Notably, our algorithm and analysis provide a unified framework for both homogeneous and heterogeneous data under any noise level of the stochastic gradient, and it achieves state-of-the-art complexity results. In particular, we prove that EPISODE can achieve linear speedup in the number of machines, and it requires significantly fewer communication rounds. Experiments on several heterogeneous datasets show the superior performance of EPISODE over several strong baselines in FL.

An Information-Theoretic Approach to Transferability in Task Transfer Learning

Task transfer learning is a popular technique in image processing applications that uses pre-trained models to reduce the supervision cost of related tasks. An important question is to determine task transferability, i.e. given a common input domain, estimating to what extent representations learned from a source task can help in learning a target task. Typically, transferability is either measured experimentally or inferred through task relatedness, which is often defined without a clear operational meaning. In this paper, we present a novel metric, H-score, an easily-computable evaluation function that estimates the performance of transferred representations from one task to another in classification problems using statistical and information theoretic principles. Experiments on real image data show that our metric is not only consistent with the empirical transferability measurement, but also useful to practitioners in applications such as source model selection and task transfer curriculum learning.

Fast Composite Optimization and Statistical Recovery in Federated Learning

As a prevalent distributed learning paradigm, Federated Learning (FL) trains a global model on a massive amount of devices with infrequent communication. This paper investigates a class of composite optimization and statistical recovery problems in the FL setting, whose loss function consists of a data-dependent smooth loss and a non-smooth regularizer. Examples include sparse linear regression using Lasso, low-rank matrix recovery using nuclear norm regularization, etc. In the existing literature, federated composite optimization algorithms are designed only from an optimization perspective without any statistical guarantees. In addition, they do not consider commonly used (restricted) strong convexity in statistical recovery problems. We advance the frontiers of this problem from both optimization and statistical perspectives. From optimization upfront, we propose a new algorithm named \textit{Fast Federated Dual Averaging} for strongly convex and smooth loss and establish state-of-the-art iteration and communication complexity in the composite setting. In particular, we prove that it enjoys a fast rate, linear speedup, and reduced communication rounds. From statistical upfront, for restricted strongly convex and smooth loss, we design another algorithm, namely \textit{Multi-stage Federated Dual Averaging}, and prove a high probability complexity bound with linear speedup up to optimal statistical precision. Experiments in both synthetic and real data demonstrate that our methods perform better than other baselines. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work providing fast optimization algorithms and statistical recovery guarantees for composite problems in FL.

Optimal Lighting Control in Greenhouses Using Bayesian Neural Networks for Sunlight Prediction

Controlling the environmental parameters, including light in greenhouses, increases the crop yield; however, the electricity cost of supplemental lighting can be high. Therefore, the importance of applying cost-effective lighting methods arises. In this paper, an optimal supplemental lighting control approach is developed considering a variational inference Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) model for sunlight prediction. The predictive model is validated through testing the model on the historical solar data of a site located at North Carolina ($R^{2}$=0.9971, RMSE=1.8%). The proposed lighting approach is shown to minimize electricity cost by considering the BNN-based sunlight prediction, plant light needs, and variable electricity pricing when solving the underlying optimization problem. For evaluation, the new strategy is compared to: 1) a Markov-based prediction method, which solves the same optimization problem, assuming a Markov model for sunlight prediction; 2) a heuristic method which aims to supply a fixed amount of light. Simulation studies are conducted to examine the electricity cost improvements of the BNN-based approach. The results show that the BNN-based approach reduces cost by (on average) 2.27% and 43.91% compared to the Markov prediction-based method and the heuristic method, respectively, throughout a year.

Varying Coefficient Linear Discriminant Analysis for Dynamic Data

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a vital classification tool in statistics and machine learning. This paper investigates the varying coefficient LDA model for dynamic data, with Bayes' discriminant direction being a function of some exposure variable to address the heterogeneity. By deriving a new discriminant direction function parallel with Bayes' direction, we propose a least-square estimation procedure based on the B-spline approximation. For high-dimensional regime, the corresponding data-driven discriminant rule is more computationally efficient than the existed dynamic linear programming rule. We also establish the corresponding theoretical results, including estimation error bound and the uniform excess misclassification rate. Numerical experiments on synthetic data and real data both corroborate the superiority of our proposed classification method.

Varying Coefficient Linear Discriminant Analysis via B-Spline Approximation

Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) is a vital classification tool in statistics and machine learning. This paper investigates the varying coefficient LDA model for dynamic data, with Bayes' discriminant direction being a function of some exposure variable to address the heterogeneity. By deriving a new discriminant direction function parallel with Bayes' direction, we propose a least-square estimation procedure based on the B-spline approximation. For high-dimensional regime, the corresponding data-driven discriminant rule is more computationally efficient than the existed dynamic linear programming rule. We also establish the corresponding theoretical results, including estimation error bound and the uniform excess misclassification rate. Numerical experiments on synthetic data and real data both corroborate the superiority of our proposed classification method.