Breaking Silos: Adaptive Model Fusion Unlocks Better Time Series Forecasting

Time-series forecasting plays a critical role in many real-world applications. Although increasingly powerful models have been developed and achieved superior results on benchmark datasets, through a fine-grained sample-level inspection, we find that (i) no single model consistently outperforms others across different test samples, but instead (ii) each model excels in specific cases. These findings prompt us to explore how to adaptively leverage the distinct strengths of various forecasting models for different samples. We introduce TimeFuse, a framework for collective time-series forecasting with sample-level adaptive fusion of heterogeneous models. TimeFuse utilizes meta-features to characterize input time series and trains a learnable fusor to predict optimal model fusion weights for any given input. The fusor can leverage samples from diverse datasets for joint training, allowing it to adapt to a wide variety of temporal patterns and thus generalize to new inputs, even from unseen datasets. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of TimeFuse in various long-/short-term forecasting tasks, achieving near-universal improvement over the state-of-the-art individual models. Code is available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/TimeFuse.

CLIMB: Class-imbalanced Learning Benchmark on Tabular Data

Class-imbalanced learning (CIL) on tabular data is important in many real-world applications where the minority class holds the critical but rare outcomes. In this paper, we present CLIMB, a comprehensive benchmark for class-imbalanced learning on tabular data. CLIMB includes 73 real-world datasets across diverse domains and imbalance levels, along with unified implementations of 29 representative CIL algorithms. Built on a high-quality open-source Python package with unified API designs, detailed documentation, and rigorous code quality controls, CLIMB supports easy implementation and comparison between different CIL algorithms. Through extensive experiments, we provide practical insights on method accuracy and efficiency, highlighting the limitations of naive rebalancing, the effectiveness of ensembles, and the importance of data quality. Our code, documentation, and examples are available at https://github.com/ZhiningLiu1998/imbalanced-ensemble.

ClimateBench-M: A Multi-Modal Climate Data Benchmark with a Simple Generative Method

Climate science studies the structure and dynamics of Earth's climate system and seeks to understand how climate changes over time, where the data is usually stored in the format of time series, recording the climate features, geolocation, time attributes, etc. Recently, much research attention has been paid to the climate benchmarks. In addition to the most common task of weather forecasting, several pioneering benchmark works are proposed for extending the modality, such as domain-specific applications like tropical cyclone intensity prediction and flash flood damage estimation, or climate statement and confidence level in the format of natural language. To further motivate the artificial general intelligence development for climate science, in this paper, we first contribute a multi-modal climate benchmark, i.e., ClimateBench-M, which aligns (1) the time series climate data from ERA5, (2) extreme weather events data from NOAA, and (3) satellite image data from NASA HLS based on a unified spatial-temporal granularity. Second, under each data modality, we also propose a simple but strong generative method that could produce competitive performance in weather forecasting, thunderstorm alerts, and crop segmentation tasks in the proposed ClimateBench-M. The data and code of ClimateBench-M are publicly available at https://github.com/iDEA-iSAIL-Lab-UIUC/ClimateBench-M.

GTR: Graph-Table-RAG for Cross-Table Question Answering

Beyond pure text, a substantial amount of knowledge is stored in tables. In real-world scenarios, user questions often require retrieving answers that are distributed across multiple tables. GraphRAG has recently attracted much attention for enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities by organizing external knowledge to address ad-hoc and complex questions, exemplifying a promising direction for cross-table question answering. In this paper, to address the current gap in available data, we first introduce a multi-table benchmark, MutliTableQA, comprising 60k tables and 25k user queries collected from real-world sources. Then, we propose the first Graph-Table-RAG framework, namely GTR, which reorganizes table corpora into a heterogeneous graph, employs a hierarchical coarse-to-fine retrieval process to extract the most relevant tables, and integrates graph-aware prompting for downstream LLMs' tabular reasoning. Extensive experiments show that GTR exhibits superior cross-table question-answering performance while maintaining high deployment efficiency, demonstrating its real-world practical applicability.

Reasoning of Large Language Models over Knowledge Graphs with Super-Relations

While large language models (LLMs) have made significant progress in processing and reasoning over knowledge graphs, current methods suffer from a high non-retrieval rate. This limitation reduces the accuracy of answering questions based on these graphs. Our analysis reveals that the combination of greedy search and forward reasoning is a major contributor to this issue. To overcome these challenges, we introduce the concept of super-relations, which enables both forward and backward reasoning by summarizing and connecting various relational paths within the graph. This holistic approach not only expands the search space, but also significantly improves retrieval efficiency. In this paper, we propose the ReKnoS framework, which aims to Reason over Knowledge Graphs with Super-Relations. Our framework's key advantages include the inclusion of multiple relation paths through super-relations, enhanced forward and backward reasoning capabilities, and increased efficiency in querying LLMs. These enhancements collectively lead to a substantial improvement in the successful retrieval rate and overall reasoning performance. We conduct extensive experiments on nine real-world datasets to evaluate ReKnoS, and the results demonstrate the superior performance of ReKnoS over existing state-of-the-art baselines, with an average accuracy gain of 2.92%.

PLAY2PROMPT: Zero-shot Tool Instruction Optimization for LLM Agents via Tool Play

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated with specialized external tools, yet many tasks demand zero-shot tool usage with minimal or noisy documentation. Existing solutions rely on manual rewriting or labeled data for validation, making them inapplicable in true zero-shot settings. To address these challenges, we propose PLAY2PROMPT, an automated framework that systematically "plays" with each tool to explore its input-output behaviors. Through this iterative trial-and-error process, PLAY2PROMPT refines tool documentation and generates usage examples without any labeled data. These examples not only guide LLM inference but also serve as validation to further enhance tool utilization. Extensive experiments on real-world tasks demonstrate that PLAY2PROMPT significantly improves zero-shot tool performance across both open and closed models, offering a scalable and effective solution for domain-specific tool integration.

Language in the Flow of Time: Time-Series-Paired Texts Weaved into a Unified Temporal Narrative

While many advances in time series models focus exclusively on numerical data, research on multimodal time series, particularly those involving contextual textual information commonly encountered in real-world scenarios, remains in its infancy. Consequently, effectively integrating the text modality remains challenging. In this work, we highlight an intuitive yet significant observation that has been overlooked by existing works: time-series-paired texts exhibit periodic properties that closely mirror those of the original time series. Building on this insight, we propose a novel framework, Texts as Time Series (TaTS), which considers the time-series-paired texts to be auxiliary variables of the time series. TaTS can be plugged into any existing numerical-only time series models and enable them to handle time series data with paired texts effectively. Through extensive experiments on both multimodal time series forecasting and imputation tasks across benchmark datasets with various existing time series models, we demonstrate that TaTS can enhance predictive performance and achieve outperformance without modifying model architectures.

Enterprise Benchmarks for Large Language Model Evaluation

The advancement of large language models (LLMs) has led to a greater challenge of having a rigorous and systematic evaluation of complex tasks performed, especially in enterprise applications. Therefore, LLMs need to be able to benchmark enterprise datasets for various tasks. This work presents a systematic exploration of benchmarking strategies tailored to LLM evaluation, focusing on the utilization of domain-specific datasets and consisting of a variety of NLP tasks. The proposed evaluation framework encompasses 25 publicly available datasets from diverse enterprise domains like financial services, legal, cyber security, and climate and sustainability. The diverse performance of 13 models across different enterprise tasks highlights the importance of selecting the right model based on the specific requirements of each task. Code and prompts are available on GitHub.

Generating Fine-Grained Causality in Climate Time Series Data for Forecasting and Anomaly Detection

Understanding the causal interaction of time series variables can contribute to time series data analysis for many real-world applications, such as climate forecasting and extreme weather alerts. However, causal relationships are difficult to be fully observed in real-world complex settings, such as spatial-temporal data from deployed sensor networks. Therefore, to capture fine-grained causal relations among spatial-temporal variables for further a more accurate and reliable time series analysis, we first design a conceptual fine-grained causal model named TBN Granger Causality, which adds time-respecting Bayesian Networks to the previous time-lagged Neural Granger Causality to offset the instantaneous effects. Second, we propose an end-to-end deep generative model called TacSas, which discovers TBN Granger Causality in a generative manner to help forecast time series data and detect possible anomalies during the forecast. For evaluations, besides the causality discovery benchmark Lorenz-96, we also test TacSas on climate benchmark ERA5 for climate forecasting and the extreme weather benchmark of NOAA for extreme weather alerts.

When Heterophily Meets Heterogeneity: New Graph Benchmarks and Effective Methods

Many real-world graphs frequently present challenges for graph learning due to the presence of both heterophily and heterogeneity. However, existing benchmarks for graph learning often focus on heterogeneous graphs with homophily or homogeneous graphs with heterophily, leaving a gap in understanding how methods perform on graphs that are both heterogeneous and heterophilic. To bridge this gap, we introduce H2GB, a novel graph benchmark that brings together the complexities of both the heterophily and heterogeneity properties of graphs. Our benchmark encompasses 9 diverse real-world datasets across 5 domains, 28 baseline model implementations, and 26 benchmark results. In addition, we present a modular graph transformer framework UnifiedGT and a new model variant, H2G-former, that excels at this challenging benchmark. By integrating masked label embeddings, cross-type heterogeneous attention, and type-specific FFNs, H2G-former effectively tackles graph heterophily and heterogeneity. Extensive experiments across 26 baselines on H2GB reveal inadequacies of current models on heterogeneous heterophilic graph learning, and demonstrate the superiority of our H2G-former over existing solutions. Both the benchmark and the framework are available on GitHub (https://github.com/junhongmit/H2GB) and PyPI (https://pypi.org/project/H2GB), and documentation can be found at https://junhongmit.github.io/H2GB/.