TimeGPT in Load Forecasting: A Large Time Series Model Perspective

Machine learning models have made significant progress in load forecasting, but their forecast accuracy is limited in cases where historical load data is scarce. Inspired by the outstanding performance of large language models (LLMs) in computer vision and natural language processing, this paper aims to discuss the potential of large time series models in load forecasting with scarce historical data. Specifically, the large time series model is constructed as a time series generative pre-trained transformer (TimeGPT), which is trained on massive and diverse time series datasets consisting of 100 billion data points (e.g., finance, transportation, banking, web traffic, weather, energy, healthcare, etc.). Then, the scarce historical load data is used to fine-tune the TimeGPT, which helps it to adapt to the data distribution and characteristics associated with load forecasting. Simulation results show that TimeGPT outperforms the benchmarks (e.g., popular machine learning models and statistical models) for load forecasting on several real datasets with scarce training samples, particularly for short look-ahead times. However, it cannot be guaranteed that TimeGPT is always superior to benchmarks for load forecasting with scarce data, since the performance of TimeGPT may be affected by the distribution differences between the load data and the training data. In practical applications, we can divide the historical data into a training set and a validation set, and then use the validation set loss to decide whether TimeGPT is the best choice for a specific dataset.

Grounding and Enhancing Grid-based Models for Neural Fields

Many contemporary studies utilize grid-based models for neural field representation, but a systematic analysis of grid-based models is still missing, hindering the improvement of those models. Therefore, this paper introduces a theoretical framework for grid-based models. This framework points out that these models' approximation and generalization behaviors are determined by grid tangent kernels (GTK), which are intrinsic properties of grid-based models. The proposed framework facilitates a consistent and systematic analysis of diverse grid-based models. Furthermore, the introduced framework motivates the development of a novel grid-based model named the Multiplicative Fourier Adaptive Grid (MulFAGrid). The numerical analysis demonstrates that MulFAGrid exhibits a lower generalization bound than its predecessors, indicating its robust generalization performance. Empirical studies reveal that MulFAGrid achieves state-of-the-art performance in various tasks, including 2D image fitting, 3D signed distance field (SDF) reconstruction, and novel view synthesis, demonstrating superior representation ability. The project website is available at https://sites.google.com/view/cvpr24-2034-submission/home.

AMP: Autoregressive Motion Prediction Revisited with Next Token Prediction for Autonomous Driving

As an essential task in autonomous driving (AD), motion prediction aims to predict the future states of surround objects for navigation. One natural solution is to estimate the position of other agents in a step-by-step manner where each predicted time-step is conditioned on both observed time-steps and previously predicted time-steps, i.e., autoregressive prediction. Pioneering works like SocialLSTM and MFP design their decoders based on this intuition. However, almost all state-of-the-art works assume that all predicted time-steps are independent conditioned on observed time-steps, where they use a single linear layer to generate positions of all time-steps simultaneously. They dominate most motion prediction leaderboards due to the simplicity of training MLPs compared to autoregressive networks. In this paper, we introduce the GPT style next token prediction into motion forecasting. In this way, the input and output could be represented in a unified space and thus the autoregressive prediction becomes more feasible. However, different from language data which is composed of homogeneous units -words, the elements in the driving scene could have complex spatial-temporal and semantic relations. To this end, we propose to adopt three factorized attention modules with different neighbors for information aggregation and different position encoding styles to capture their relations, e.g., encoding the transformation between coordinate systems for spatial relativity while adopting RoPE for temporal relativity. Empirically, by equipping with the aforementioned tailored designs, the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance in the Waymo Open Motion and Waymo Interaction datasets. Notably, AMP outperforms other recent autoregressive motion prediction methods: MotionLM and StateTransformer, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed designs.

ActiveAD: Planning-Oriented Active Learning for End-to-End Autonomous Driving

End-to-end differentiable learning for autonomous driving (AD) has recently become a prominent paradigm. One main bottleneck lies in its voracious appetite for high-quality labeled data e.g. 3D bounding boxes and semantic segmentation, which are notoriously expensive to manually annotate. The difficulty is further pronounced due to the prominent fact that the behaviors within samples in AD often suffer from long tailed distribution. In other words, a large part of collected data can be trivial (e.g. simply driving forward in a straight road) and only a few cases are safety-critical. In this paper, we explore a practically important yet under-explored problem about how to achieve sample and label efficiency for end-to-end AD. Specifically, we design a planning-oriented active learning method which progressively annotates part of collected raw data according to the proposed diversity and usefulness criteria for planning routes. Empirically, we show that our planning-oriented approach could outperform general active learning methods by a large margin. Notably, our method achieves comparable performance with state-of-the-art end-to-end AD methods - by using only 30% nuScenes data. We hope our work could inspire future works to explore end-to-end AD from a data-centric perspective in addition to methodology efforts.

Improving the Accuracy and Interpretability of Neural Networks for Wind Power Forecasting

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are receiving increasing attention in wind power forecasting due to their ability to effectively capture complex patterns in wind data. However, their forecasted errors are severely limited by the local optimal weight issue in optimization algorithms, and their forecasted behavior also lacks interpretability. To address these two challenges, this paper firstly proposes simple but effective triple optimization strategies (TriOpts) to accelerate the training process and improve the model performance of DNNs in wind power forecasting. Then, permutation feature importance (PFI) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) techniques are innovatively presented to interpret forecasted behaviors of DNNs, from global and instance perspectives. Simulation results show that the proposed TriOpts not only drastically improve the model generalization of DNNs for both the deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting, but also accelerate the training process. Besides, the proposed PFI and LIME techniques can accurately estimate the contribution of each feature to wind power forecasting, which helps to construct feature engineering and understand how to obtain forecasted values for a given sample.

MWSIS: Multimodal Weakly Supervised Instance Segmentation with 2D Box Annotations for Autonomous Driving

Instance segmentation is a fundamental research in computer vision, especially in autonomous driving. However, manual mask annotation for instance segmentation is quite time-consuming and costly. To address this problem, some prior works attempt to apply weakly supervised manner by exploring 2D or 3D boxes. However, no one has ever successfully segmented 2D and 3D instances simultaneously by only using 2D box annotations, which could further reduce the annotation cost by an order of magnitude. Thus, we propose a novel framework called Multimodal Weakly Supervised Instance Segmentation (MWSIS), which incorporates various fine-grained label generation and correction modules for both 2D and 3D modalities to improve the quality of pseudo labels, along with a new multimodal cross-supervision approach, named Consistency Sparse Cross-modal Supervision (CSCS), to reduce the inconsistency of multimodal predictions by response distillation. Particularly, transferring the 3D backbone to downstream tasks not only improves the performance of the 3D detectors, but also outperforms fully supervised instance segmentation with only 5% fully supervised annotations. On the Waymo dataset, the proposed framework demonstrates significant improvements over the baseline, especially achieving 2.59% mAP and 12.75% mAP increases for 2D and 3D instance segmentation tasks, respectively. The code is available at https://github.com/jiangxb98/mwsis-plugin.

An Explainable Framework for Machine learning-Based Reactive Power Optimization of Distribution Network

To reduce the heavy computational burden of reactive power optimization of distribution networks, machine learning models are receiving increasing attention. However, most machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) are usually considered as black boxes, making it challenging for power system operators to identify and comprehend potential biases or errors in the decision-making process of machine learning models. To address this issue, an explainable machine-learning framework is proposed to optimize the reactive power in distribution networks. Firstly, a Shapley additive explanation framework is presented to measure the contribution of each input feature to the solution of reactive power optimizations generated from machine learning models. Secondly, a model-agnostic approximation method is developed to estimate Shapley values, so as to avoid the heavy computational burden associated with direct calculations of Shapley values. The simulation results show that the proposed explainable framework can accurately explain the solution of the machine learning model-based reactive power optimization by using visual analytics, from both global and instance perspectives. Moreover, the proposed explainable framework is model-agnostic, and thus applicable to various models (e.g., neural networks).

Explainable Modeling for Wind Power Forecasting: A Glass-Box Approach with Exceptional Accuracy

Machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but they are usually regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability. To address this issue, the paper proposes a glass-box approach that combines exceptional accuracy with transparency for wind power forecasting. Specifically, advanced artificial intelligence methods (e.g., gradient boosting) are innovatively employed to create shape functions within the forecasting model. These functions effectively map the intricate non-linear relationships between wind power output and input features. Furthermore, the forecasting model is enriched by incorporating interaction terms that adeptly capture interdependencies and synergies among the input features. Simulation results show that the proposed glass-box approach effectively interprets the results of wind power forecasting from both global and instance perspectives. Besides, it outperforms most benchmark models and exhibits comparable performance to the best-performing neural networks. This dual strength of transparency and high accuracy positions the proposed glass-box approach as a compelling choice for reliable wind power forecasting.

Short-Term Power Prediction for Renewable Energy Using Hybrid Graph Convolutional Network and Long Short-Term Memory Approach

Accurate short-term solar and wind power predictions play an important role in the planning and operation of power systems. However, the short-term power prediction of renewable energy has always been considered a complex regression problem, owing to the fluctuation and intermittence of output powers and the law of dynamic change with time due to local weather conditions, i.e. spatio-temporal correlation. To capture the spatio-temporal features simultaneously, this paper proposes a new graph neural network-based short-term power forecasting approach, which combines the graph convolutional network (GCN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). Specifically, the GCN is employed to learn complex spatial correlations between adjacent renewable energies, and the LSTM is used to learn dynamic changes of power curves. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid approach can model the spatio-temporal correlation of renewable energies, and its performance outperforms popular baselines on real-world datasets.