TimeGPT in Load Forecasting: A Large Time Series Model Perspective

Machine learning models have made significant progress in load forecasting, but their forecast accuracy is limited in cases where historical load data is scarce. Inspired by the outstanding performance of large language models (LLMs) in computer vision and natural language processing, this paper aims to discuss the potential of large time series models in load forecasting with scarce historical data. Specifically, the large time series model is constructed as a time series generative pre-trained transformer (TimeGPT), which is trained on massive and diverse time series datasets consisting of 100 billion data points (e.g., finance, transportation, banking, web traffic, weather, energy, healthcare, etc.). Then, the scarce historical load data is used to fine-tune the TimeGPT, which helps it to adapt to the data distribution and characteristics associated with load forecasting. Simulation results show that TimeGPT outperforms the benchmarks (e.g., popular machine learning models and statistical models) for load forecasting on several real datasets with scarce training samples, particularly for short look-ahead times. However, it cannot be guaranteed that TimeGPT is always superior to benchmarks for load forecasting with scarce data, since the performance of TimeGPT may be affected by the distribution differences between the load data and the training data. In practical applications, we can divide the historical data into a training set and a validation set, and then use the validation set loss to decide whether TimeGPT is the best choice for a specific dataset.

Improving the Accuracy and Interpretability of Neural Networks for Wind Power Forecasting

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are receiving increasing attention in wind power forecasting due to their ability to effectively capture complex patterns in wind data. However, their forecasted errors are severely limited by the local optimal weight issue in optimization algorithms, and their forecasted behavior also lacks interpretability. To address these two challenges, this paper firstly proposes simple but effective triple optimization strategies (TriOpts) to accelerate the training process and improve the model performance of DNNs in wind power forecasting. Then, permutation feature importance (PFI) and local interpretable model-agnostic explanation (LIME) techniques are innovatively presented to interpret forecasted behaviors of DNNs, from global and instance perspectives. Simulation results show that the proposed TriOpts not only drastically improve the model generalization of DNNs for both the deterministic and probabilistic wind power forecasting, but also accelerate the training process. Besides, the proposed PFI and LIME techniques can accurately estimate the contribution of each feature to wind power forecasting, which helps to construct feature engineering and understand how to obtain forecasted values for a given sample.