Systematic Evaluation of Causal Discovery in Visual Model Based Reinforcement Learning

Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make sense of their environment, the only observables are low-level variables like pixels in images. To generalize well, an agent must induce high-level variables, particularly those which are causal or are affected by causal variables. A central goal for AI and causality is thus the joint discovery of abstract representations and causal structure. However, we note that existing environments for studying causal induction are poorly suited for this objective because they have complicated task-specific causal graphs which are impossible to manipulate parametrically (e.g., number of nodes, sparsity, causal chain length, etc.). In this work, our goal is to facilitate research in learning representations of high-level variables as well as causal structures among them. In order to systematically probe the ability of methods to identify these variables and structures, we design a suite of benchmarking RL environments. We evaluate various representation learning algorithms from the literature and find that explicitly incorporating structure and modularity in models can help causal induction in model-based reinforcement learning.

Interventional Assays for the Latent Space of Autoencoders

The encoders and decoders of autoencoders effectively project the input onto learned manifolds in the latent space and data space respectively. We propose a framework, called latent responses, for probing the learned data manifold using interventions in the latent space. Using this framework, we investigate "holes" in the representation to quantitatively ascertain to what extent the latent space of a trained VAE is consistent with the chosen prior. Furthermore, we use the identified structure to improve interpolation between latent vectors. We evaluate how our analyses improve the quality of the generated samples using the VAE on a variety of benchmark datasets.

Variational Causal Networks: Approximate Bayesian Inference over Causal Structures

Learning the causal structure that underlies data is a crucial step towards robust real-world decision making. The majority of existing work in causal inference focuses on determining a single directed acyclic graph (DAG) or a Markov equivalence class thereof. However, a crucial aspect to acting intelligently upon the knowledge about causal structure which has been inferred from finite data demands reasoning about its uncertainty. For instance, planning interventions to find out more about the causal mechanisms that govern our data requires quantifying epistemic uncertainty over DAGs. While Bayesian causal inference allows to do so, the posterior over DAGs becomes intractable even for a small number of variables. Aiming to overcome this issue, we propose a form of variational inference over the graphs of Structural Causal Models (SCMs). To this end, we introduce a parametric variational family modelled by an autoregressive distribution over the space of discrete DAGs. Its number of parameters does not grow exponentially with the number of variables and can be tractably learned by maximising an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). In our experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed variational posterior is able to provide a good approximation of the true posterior.

Representation Learning in Continuous-Time Score-Based Generative Models

Score-based methods represented as stochastic differential equations on a continuous time domain have recently proven successful as a non-adversarial generative model. Training such models relies on denoising score matching, which can be seen as multi-scale denoising autoencoders. Here, we augment the denoising score-matching framework to enable representation learning without any supervised signal. GANs and VAEs learn representations by directly transforming latent codes to data samples. In contrast, score-based representation learning relies on a new formulation of the denoising score-matching objective and thus encodes information needed for denoising. We show how this difference allows for manual control of the level of detail encoded in the representation.

Benchmarking Structured Policies and Policy Optimization for Real-World Dexterous Object Manipulation

Dexterous manipulation is a challenging and important problem in robotics. While data-driven methods are a promising approach, current benchmarks require simulation or extensive engineering support due to the sample inefficiency of popular methods. We present benchmarks for the TriFinger system, an open-source robotic platform for dexterous manipulation and the focus of the 2020 Real Robot Challenge. The benchmarked methods, which were successful in the challenge, can be generally described as structured policies, as they combine elements of classical robotics and modern policy optimization. This inclusion of inductive biases facilitates sample efficiency, interpretability, reliability and high performance. The key aspects of this benchmarking is validation of the baselines across both simulation and the real system, thorough ablation study over the core features of each solution, and a retrospective analysis of the challenge as a manipulation benchmark. The code and demo videos for this work can be found on our website (https://sites.google.com/view/benchmark-rrc).

Pyfectious: An individual-level simulator to discover optimal containment polices for epidemic diseases

Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based on compartment models that divide people into a few subsets and simulate the dynamics among those subsets using hypothesized differential equations. However, these models lack the requisite granularity to study the effect of intelligent policies that influence every individual in a particular way. In this work, we introduce a simulator software capable of modeling a population structure and controlling the disease's propagation at an individualistic level. In order to estimate the confidence of the conclusions drawn from the simulator, we employ a comprehensive probabilistic approach where the entire population is constructed as a hierarchical random variable. This approach makes the inferred conclusions more robust against sampling artifacts and gives confidence bounds for decisions based on the simulation results. To showcase potential applications, the simulator parameters are set based on the formal statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outcome of a wide range of control measures is investigated. Furthermore, the simulator is used as the environment of a reinforcement learning problem to find the optimal policies to control the pandemic. The obtained experimental results indicate the simulator's adaptability and capacity in making sound predictions and a successful policy derivation example based on real-world data. As an exemplary application, our results show that the proposed policy discovery method can lead to control measures that produce significantly fewer infected individuals in the population and protect the health system against saturation.

NCoRE: Neural Counterfactual Representation Learning for Combinations of Treatments

Estimating an individual's potential response to interventions from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy or economics. In this setting, it is often the case that combinations of interventions may be applied simultaneously, for example, multiple prescriptions in healthcare or different fiscal and monetary measures in economics. However, existing methods for counterfactual inference are limited to settings in which actions are not used simultaneously. Here, we present Neural Counterfactual Relation Estimation (NCoRE), a new method for learning counterfactual representations in the combination treatment setting that explicitly models cross-treatment interactions. NCoRE is based on a novel branched conditional neural representation that includes learnt treatment interaction modulators to infer the potential causal generative process underlying the combination of multiple treatments. Our experiments show that NCoRE significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for counterfactual treatment effect estimation that do not account for the effects of combining multiple treatments across several synthetic, semi-synthetic and real-world benchmarks.

Spatial Dependency Networks: Neural Layers for Improved Generative Image Modeling

How to improve generative modeling by better exploiting spatial regularities and coherence in images? We introduce a novel neural network for building image generators (decoders) and apply it to variational autoencoders (VAEs). In our spatial dependency networks (SDNs), feature maps at each level of a deep neural net are computed in a spatially coherent way, using a sequential gating-based mechanism that distributes contextual information across 2-D space. We show that augmenting the decoder of a hierarchical VAE by spatial dependency layers considerably improves density estimation over baseline convolutional architectures and the state-of-the-art among the models within the same class. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SDN can be applied to large images by synthesizing samples of high quality and coherence. In a vanilla VAE setting, we find that a powerful SDN decoder also improves learning disentangled representations, indicating that neural architectures play an important role in this task. Our results suggest favoring spatial dependency over convolutional layers in various VAE settings. The accompanying source code is given at https://github.com/djordjemila/sdn.

Towards Causal Representation Learning

The two fields of machine learning and graphical causality arose and developed separately. However, there is now cross-pollination and increasing interest in both fields to benefit from the advances of the other. In the present paper, we review fundamental concepts of causal inference and relate them to crucial open problems of machine learning, including transfer and generalization, thereby assaying how causality can contribute to modern machine learning research. This also applies in the opposite direction: we note that most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables are given. A central problem for AI and causality is, thus, causal representation learning, the discovery of high-level causal variables from low-level observations. Finally, we delineate some implications of causality for machine learning and propose key research areas at the intersection of both communities.

Overcoming Barriers to Data Sharing with Medical Image Generation: A Comprehensive Evaluation

Privacy concerns around sharing personally identifiable information are a major practical barrier to data sharing in medical research. However, in many cases, researchers have no interest in a particular individual's information but rather aim to derive insights at the level of cohorts. Here, we utilize Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to create derived medical imaging datasets consisting entirely of synthetic patient data. The synthetic images ideally have, in aggregate, similar statistical properties to those of a source dataset but do not contain sensitive personal information. We assess the quality of synthetic data generated by two GAN models for chest radiographs with 14 different radiology findings and brain computed tomography (CT) scans with six types of intracranial hemorrhages. We measure the synthetic image quality by the performance difference of predictive models trained on either the synthetic or the real dataset. We find that synthetic data performance disproportionately benefits from a reduced number of unique label combinations and determine at what number of samples per class overfitting effects start to dominate GAN training. Our open-source benchmark findings also indicate that synthetic data generation can benefit from higher levels of spatial resolution. We additionally conducted a reader study in which trained radiologists do not perform better than random on discriminating between synthetic and real medical images for both data modalities to a statistically significant extent. Our study offers valuable guidelines and outlines practical conditions under which insights derived from synthetic medical images are similar to those that would have been derived from real imaging data. Our results indicate that synthetic data sharing may be an attractive and privacy-preserving alternative to sharing real patient-level data in the right settings.