Causal Bayesian Optimization with Unknown Graphs

Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) is a methodology designed to optimize an outcome variable by leveraging known causal relationships through targeted interventions. Traditional CBO methods require a fully and accurately specified causal graph, which is a limitation in many real-world scenarios where such graphs are unknown. To address this, we propose a new method for the CBO framework that operates without prior knowledge of the causal graph. Consistent with causal bandit theory, we demonstrate through theoretical analysis and that focusing on the direct causal parents of the target variable is sufficient for optimization, and provide empirical validation in the context of CBO. Furthermore we introduce a new method that learns a Bayesian posterior over the direct parents of the target variable. This allows us to optimize the outcome variable while simultaneously learning the causal structure. Our contributions include a derivation of the closed-form posterior distribution for the linear case. In the nonlinear case where the posterior is not tractable, we present a Gaussian Process (GP) approximation that still enables CBO by inferring the parents of the outcome variable. The proposed method performs competitively with existing benchmarks and scales well to larger graphs, making it a practical tool for real-world applications where causal information is incomplete.

A scalable gene network model of regulatory dynamics in single cells

Single-cell data provide high-dimensional measurements of the transcriptional states of cells, but extracting insights into the regulatory functions of genes, particularly identifying transcriptional mechanisms affected by biological perturbations, remains a challenge. Many perturbations induce compensatory cellular responses, making it difficult to distinguish direct from indirect effects on gene regulation. Modeling how gene regulatory functions shape the temporal dynamics of these responses is key to improving our understanding of biological perturbations. Dynamical models based on differential equations offer a principled way to capture transcriptional dynamics, but their application to single-cell data has been hindered by computational constraints, stochasticity, sparsity, and noise. Existing methods either rely on low-dimensional representations or make strong simplifying assumptions, limiting their ability to model transcriptional dynamics at scale. We introduce a Functional and Learnable model of Cell dynamicS, FLeCS, that incorporates gene network structure into coupled differential equations to model gene regulatory functions. Given (pseudo)time-series single-cell data, FLeCS accurately infers cell dynamics at scale, provides improved functional insights into transcriptional mechanisms perturbed by gene knockouts, both in myeloid differentiation and K562 Perturb-seq experiments, and simulates single-cell trajectories of A549 cells following small-molecule perturbations.

Preference-Guided Diffusion for Multi-Objective Offline Optimization

Offline multi-objective optimization aims to identify Pareto-optimal solutions given a dataset of designs and their objective values. In this work, we propose a preference-guided diffusion model that generates Pareto-optimal designs by leveraging a classifier-based guidance mechanism. Our guidance classifier is a preference model trained to predict the probability that one design dominates another, directing the diffusion model toward optimal regions of the design space. Crucially, this preference model generalizes beyond the training distribution, enabling the discovery of Pareto-optimal solutions outside the observed dataset. We introduce a novel diversity-aware preference guidance, augmenting Pareto dominance preference with diversity criteria. This ensures that generated solutions are optimal and well-distributed across the objective space, a capability absent in prior generative methods for offline multi-objective optimization. We evaluate our approach on various continuous offline multi-objective optimization tasks and find that it consistently outperforms other inverse/generative approaches while remaining competitive with forward/surrogate-based optimization methods. Our results highlight the effectiveness of classifier-guided diffusion models in generating diverse and high-quality solutions that approximate the Pareto front well.

Panopticon: Advancing Any-Sensor Foundation Models for Earth Observation

Earth observation (EO) data features diverse sensing platforms with varying spectral bands, spatial resolutions, and sensing modalities. While most prior work has constrained inputs to fixed sensors, a new class of any-sensor foundation models able to process arbitrary sensors has recently emerged. Contributing to this line of work, we propose Panopticon, an any-sensor foundation model built on the DINOv2 framework. We extend DINOv2 by (1) treating images of the same geolocation across sensors as natural augmentations, (2) subsampling channels to diversify spectral input, and (3) adding a cross attention over channels as a flexible patch embedding mechanism. By encoding the wavelength and modes of optical and synthetic aperture radar sensors, respectively, Panopticon can effectively process any combination of arbitrary channels. In extensive evaluations, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on GEO-Bench, especially on the widely-used Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 sensors, while out-competing other any-sensor models, as well as domain adapted fixed-sensor models on unique sensor configurations. Panopticon enables immediate generalization to both existing and future satellite platforms, advancing sensor-agnostic EO.

Learning Decision Trees as Amortized Structure Inference

Building predictive models for tabular data presents fundamental challenges, notably in scaling consistently, i.e., more resources translating to better performance, and generalizing systematically beyond the training data distribution. Designing decision tree models remains especially challenging given the intractably large search space, and most existing methods rely on greedy heuristics, while deep learning inductive biases expect a temporal or spatial structure not naturally present in tabular data. We propose a hybrid amortized structure inference approach to learn predictive decision tree ensembles given data, formulating decision tree construction as a sequential planning problem. We train a deep reinforcement learning (GFlowNet) policy to solve this problem, yielding a generative model that samples decision trees from the Bayesian posterior. We show that our approach, DT-GFN, outperforms state-of-the-art decision tree and deep learning methods on standard classification benchmarks derived from real-world data, robustness to distribution shifts, and anomaly detection, all while yielding interpretable models with shorter description lengths. Samples from the trained DT-GFN model can be ensembled to construct a random forest, and we further show that the performance of scales consistently in ensemble size, yielding ensembles of predictors that continue to generalize systematically.

Measuring temporal effects of agent knowledge by date-controlled tool use

Temporal progression is an integral part of knowledge accumulation and update. Web search is frequently adopted as grounding for agent knowledge, yet its inappropriate configuration affects the quality of agent responses. Here, we construct a tool-based out-of-sample testing framework to measure the knowledge variability of large language model (LLM) agents from distinct date-controlled tools (DCTs). We demonstrate the temporal effects of an LLM agent as a writing assistant, which can use web search to help complete scientific publication abstracts. We show that temporal effects of the search engine translates into tool-dependent agent performance but can be alleviated with base model choice and explicit reasoning instructions such as chain-of-thought prompting. Our results indicate that agent evaluation should take a dynamical view and account for the temporal influence of tools and the updates of external resources.

Causal machine learning for predicting treatment outcomes

Causal machine learning (ML) offers flexible, data-driven methods for predicting treatment outcomes including efficacy and toxicity, thereby supporting the assessment and safety of drugs. A key benefit of causal ML is that it allows for estimating individualized treatment effects, so that clinical decision-making can be personalized to individual patient profiles. Causal ML can be used in combination with both clinical trial data and real-world data, such as clinical registries and electronic health records, but caution is needed to avoid biased or incorrect predictions. In this Perspective, we discuss the benefits of causal ML (relative to traditional statistical or ML approaches) and outline the key components and steps. Finally, we provide recommendations for the reliable use of causal ML and effective translation into the clinic.

Exploring the Effectiveness of Object-Centric Representations in Visual Question Answering: Comparative Insights with Foundation Models

Object-centric (OC) representations, which represent the state of a visual scene by modeling it as a composition of objects, have the potential to be used in various downstream tasks to achieve systematic compositional generalization and facilitate reasoning. However, these claims have not been thoroughly analyzed yet. Recently, foundation models have demonstrated unparalleled capabilities across diverse domains from language to computer vision, marking them as a potential cornerstone of future research for a multitude of computational tasks. In this paper, we conduct an extensive empirical study on representation learning for downstream Visual Question Answering (VQA), which requires an accurate compositional understanding of the scene. We thoroughly investigate the benefits and trade-offs of OC models and alternative approaches including large pre-trained foundation models on both synthetic and real-world data, and demonstrate a viable way to achieve the best of both worlds. The extensiveness of our study, encompassing over 800 downstream VQA models and 15 different types of upstream representations, also provides several additional insights that we believe will be of interest to the community at large.

Challenges and Considerations in the Evaluation of Bayesian Causal Discovery

Representing uncertainty in causal discovery is a crucial component for experimental design, and more broadly, for safe and reliable causal decision making. Bayesian Causal Discovery (BCD) offers a principled approach to encapsulating this uncertainty. Unlike non-Bayesian causal discovery, which relies on a single estimated causal graph and model parameters for assessment, evaluating BCD presents challenges due to the nature of its inferred quantity - the posterior distribution. As a result, the research community has proposed various metrics to assess the quality of the approximate posterior. However, there is, to date, no consensus on the most suitable metric(s) for evaluation. In this work, we reexamine this question by dissecting various metrics and understanding their limitations. Through extensive empirical evaluation, we find that many existing metrics fail to exhibit a strong correlation with the quality of approximation to the true posterior, especially in scenarios with low sample sizes where BCD is most desirable. We highlight the suitability (or lack thereof) of these metrics under two distinct factors: the identifiability of the underlying causal model and the quantity of available data. Both factors affect the entropy of the true posterior, indicating that the current metrics are less fitting in settings of higher entropy. Our findings underline the importance of a more nuanced evaluation of new methods by taking into account the nature of the true posterior, as well as guide and motivate the development of new evaluation procedures for this challenge.

Amortized Active Causal Induction with Deep Reinforcement Learning

We present Causal Amortized Active Structure Learning (CAASL), an active intervention design policy that can select interventions that are adaptive, real-time and that does not require access to the likelihood. This policy, an amortized network based on the transformer, is trained with reinforcement learning on a simulator of the design environment, and a reward function that measures how close the true causal graph is to a causal graph posterior inferred from the gathered data. On synthetic data and a single-cell gene expression simulator, we demonstrate empirically that the data acquired through our policy results in a better estimate of the underlying causal graph than alternative strategies. Our design policy successfully achieves amortized intervention design on the distribution of the training environment while also generalizing well to distribution shifts in test-time design environments. Further, our policy also demonstrates excellent zero-shot generalization to design environments with dimensionality higher than that during training, and to intervention types that it has not been trained on.