Weak Collocation Regression for Inferring Stochastic Dynamics with Lévy Noise

With the rapid increase of observational, experimental and simulated data for stochastic systems, tremendous efforts have been devoted to identifying governing laws underlying the evolution of these systems. Despite the broad applications of non-Gaussian fluctuations in numerous physical phenomena, the data-driven approaches to extracting stochastic dynamics with L\'{e}vy noise are relatively few. In this work, we propose a Weak Collocation Regression (WCR) to explicitly reveal unknown stochastic dynamical systems, i.e., the Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) with both $\alpha$-stable L\'{e}vy noise and Gaussian noise, from discrete aggregate data. This method utilizes the evolution equation of the probability distribution function, i.e., the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation. With the weak form of the FP equation, the WCR constructs a linear system of unknown parameters where all integrals are evaluated by Monte Carlo method with the observations. Then, the unknown parameters are obtained by a sparse linear regression. For a SDE with L\'{e}vy noise, the corresponding FP equation is a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE), which contains nonlocal terms, and is difficult to deal with. The weak form can avoid complicated multiple integrals. Our approach can simultaneously distinguish mixed noise types, even in multi-dimensional problems. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method is accurate and computationally efficient.

Which LLM to Play? Convergence-Aware Online Model Selection with Time-Increasing Bandits

Web-based applications such as chatbots, search engines and news recommendations continue to grow in scale and complexity with the recent surge in the adoption of LLMs. Online model selection has thus garnered increasing attention due to the need to choose the best model among a diverse set while balancing task reward and exploration cost. Organizations faces decisions like whether to employ a costly API-based LLM or a locally finetuned small LLM, weighing cost against performance. Traditional selection methods often evaluate every candidate model before choosing one, which are becoming impractical given the rising costs of training and finetuning LLMs. Moreover, it is undesirable to allocate excessive resources towards exploring poor-performing models. While some recent works leverage online bandit algorithm to manage such exploration-exploitation trade-off in model selection, they tend to overlook the increasing-then-converging trend in model performances as the model is iteratively finetuned, leading to less accurate predictions and suboptimal model selections. In this paper, we propose a time-increasing bandit algorithm TI-UCB, which effectively predicts the increase of model performances due to finetuning and efficiently balances exploration and exploitation in model selection. To further capture the converging points of models, we develop a change detection mechanism by comparing consecutive increase predictions. We theoretically prove that our algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret upper bound in a typical increasing bandit setting, which implies a fast convergence rate. The advantage of our method is also empirically validated through extensive experiments on classification model selection and online selection of LLMs. Our results highlight the importance of utilizing increasing-then-converging pattern for more efficient and economic model selection in the deployment of LLMs.