WeatherQA: Can Multimodal Language Models Reason about Severe Weather?

Severe convective weather events, such as hail, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, often occur quickly yet cause significant damage, costing billions of dollars every year. This highlights the importance of forecasting severe weather threats hours in advance to better prepare meteorologists and residents in at-risk areas. Can modern large foundation models perform such forecasting? Existing weather benchmarks typically focus only on predicting time-series changes in certain weather parameters (e.g., temperature, moisture) with text-only features. In this work, we introduce WeatherQA, the first multimodal dataset designed for machines to reason about complex combinations of weather parameters (a.k.a., ingredients) and predict severe weather in real-world scenarios. The dataset includes over 8,000 (multi-images, text) pairs for diverse severe weather events. Each pair contains rich information crucial for forecasting -- the images describe the ingredients capturing environmental instability, surface observations, and radar reflectivity, and the text contains forecast analyses written by human experts. With WeatherQA, we evaluate state-of-the-art vision language models , including GPT4, Claude3, Gemini-1.5, and a fine-tuned Llama3-based VLM, by designing two challenging tasks: (1) multi-choice QA for predicting affected area and (2) classification of the development potential of severe convection. These tasks require deep understanding of domain knowledge (e.g., atmospheric dynamics) and complex reasoning over multimodal data (e.g., interactions between weather parameters). We show a substantial gap between the strongest VLM, GPT4o, and human reasoning. Our comprehensive case study with meteorologists further reveals the weaknesses of the models, suggesting that better training and data integration are necessary to bridge this gap. WeatherQA link: https://github.com/chengqianma/WeatherQA.

Flow of Reasoning: Efficient Training of LLM Policy with Divergent Thinking

Divergent thinking, the cognitive process of generating diverse solutions, is a hallmark of human creativity and problem-solving. For machines, sampling diverse solution trajectories in complex reasoning problems is crucial for robust outcomes, data augmentation, and enhanced model generalization. Large language models (LLMs) often struggle with generating high-quality, diverse reasoning. While supervised fine-tuning helps with quality, it requires extensive supervision data to capture the full diversity of solutions. Alternatively, reinforcement learning methods like PPO aim to find limited highest-reward solutions while neglecting the solution diversity, akin to convergent thinking. To address these limitations, we propose Flow of Reasoning (FoR) -- an efficient LLM training approach enabling diverse reasoning with minimal data. FoR formulates multi-step LLM reasoning as a Markovian flow from an initial state to terminal states. The formulation allows to adapt principled GFlowNet approaches to train the LLM as a policy, which is able to sample multiple reasoning paths with probabilities proportional to the unnormalized reward. Empirical results show that, with limited training data (e.g., 15 examples), FoR can discover diverse high-quality solutions that excel greatly beyond current state-of-the-art methods across three tasks, including embodied reasoning (BlocksWorld), math puzzle solving (Game24), and logical reasoning (PrOntoQA). Code is available at https://github.com/Yu-Fangxu/FoR.

Capabilities of Large Language Models in Control Engineering: A Benchmark Study on GPT-4, Claude 3 Opus, and Gemini 1.0 Ultra

In this paper, we explore the capabilities of state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-4, Claude 3 Opus, and Gemini 1.0 Ultra in solving undergraduate-level control problems. Controls provides an interesting case study for LLM reasoning due to its combination of mathematical theory and engineering design. We introduce ControlBench, a benchmark dataset tailored to reflect the breadth, depth, and complexity of classical control design. We use this dataset to study and evaluate the problem-solving abilities of these LLMs in the context of control engineering. We present evaluations conducted by a panel of human experts, providing insights into the accuracy, reasoning, and explanatory prowess of LLMs in control engineering. Our analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of each LLM in the context of classical control, and our results imply that Claude 3 Opus has become the state-of-the-art LLM for solving undergraduate control problems. Our study serves as an initial step towards the broader goal of employing artificial general intelligence in control engineering.

LLMs-based Few-Shot Disease Predictions using EHR: A Novel Approach Combining Predictive Agent Reasoning and Critical Agent Instruction

Electronic health records (EHRs) contain valuable patient data for health-related prediction tasks, such as disease prediction. Traditional approaches rely on supervised learning methods that require large labeled datasets, which can be expensive and challenging to obtain. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of applying Large Language Models (LLMs) to convert structured patient visit data (e.g., diagnoses, labs, prescriptions) into natural language narratives. We evaluate the zero-shot and few-shot performance of LLMs using various EHR-prediction-oriented prompting strategies. Furthermore, we propose a novel approach that utilizes LLM agents with different roles: a predictor agent that makes predictions and generates reasoning processes and a critic agent that analyzes incorrect predictions and provides guidance for improving the reasoning of the predictor agent. Our results demonstrate that with the proposed approach, LLMs can achieve decent few-shot performance compared to traditional supervised learning methods in EHR-based disease predictions, suggesting its potential for health-oriented applications.

COLD-Attack: Jailbreaking LLMs with Stealthiness and Controllability

Jailbreaks on Large language models (LLMs) have recently received increasing attention. For a comprehensive assessment of LLM safety, it is essential to consider jailbreaks with diverse attributes, such as contextual coherence and sentiment/stylistic variations, and hence it is beneficial to study controllable jailbreaking, i.e. how to enforce control on LLM attacks. In this paper, we formally formulate the controllable attack generation problem, and build a novel connection between this problem and controllable text generation, a well-explored topic of natural language processing. Based on this connection, we adapt the Energy-based Constrained Decoding with Langevin Dynamics (COLD), a state-of-the-art, highly efficient algorithm in controllable text generation, and introduce the COLD-Attack framework which unifies and automates the search of adversarial LLM attacks under a variety of control requirements such as fluency, stealthiness, sentiment, and left-right-coherence. The controllability enabled by COLD-Attack leads to diverse new jailbreak scenarios which not only cover the standard setting of generating fluent suffix attacks, but also allow us to address new controllable attack settings such as revising a user query adversarially with minimal paraphrasing, and inserting stealthy attacks in context with left-right-coherence. Our extensive experiments on various LLMs (Llama-2, Mistral, Vicuna, Guanaco, GPT-3.5) show COLD-Attack's broad applicability, strong controllability, high success rate, and attack transferability. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yu-Fangxu/COLD-Attack.

From Classification to Clinical Insights: Towards Analyzing and Reasoning About Mobile and Behavioral Health Data With Large Language Models

Passively collected behavioral health data from ubiquitous sensors holds significant promise to provide mental health professionals insights from patient's daily lives; however, developing analysis tools to use this data in clinical practice requires addressing challenges of generalization across devices and weak or ambiguous correlations between the measured signals and an individual's mental health. To address these challenges, we take a novel approach that leverages large language models (LLMs) to synthesize clinically useful insights from multi-sensor data. We develop chain of thought prompting methods that use LLMs to generate reasoning about how trends in data such as step count and sleep relate to conditions like depression and anxiety. We first demonstrate binary depression classification with LLMs achieving accuracies of 61.1% which exceed the state of the art. While it is not robust for clinical use, this leads us to our key finding: even more impactful and valued than classification is a new human-AI collaboration approach in which clinician experts interactively query these tools and combine their domain expertise and context about the patient with AI generated reasoning to support clinical decision-making. We find models like GPT-4 correctly reference numerical data 75% of the time, and clinician participants express strong interest in using this approach to interpret self-tracking data.

MacGyver: Are Large Language Models Creative Problem Solvers?

We explore the creative problem-solving capabilities of modern large language models (LLMs) in a constrained setting. The setting requires circumventing a cognitive bias known in psychology as ''functional fixedness'' to use familiar objects in innovative or unconventional ways. To this end, we create MacGyver, an automatically generated dataset consisting of 1,600 real-world problems that deliberately trigger functional fixedness and require thinking 'out-of-the-box'. We then present our collection of problems to both LLMs and humans to compare and contrast their problem-solving abilities. We show that MacGyver is challenging for both groups, but in unique and complementary ways. For example, humans typically excel in solving problems that they are familiar with but may struggle with tasks requiring domain-specific knowledge, leading to a higher variance. On the other hand, LLMs, being exposed to a variety of highly specialized knowledge, attempt broader problems but are prone to overconfidence and propose actions that are physically infeasible or inefficient. We also provide a detailed error analysis of LLMs, and demonstrate the potential of enhancing their problem-solving ability with novel prompting techniques such as iterative step-wise reflection and divergent-convergent thinking. This work provides insight into the creative problem-solving capabilities of humans and AI and illustrates how psychological paradigms can be extended into large-scale tasks for comparing humans and machines.

Structured Chemistry Reasoning with Large Language Models

This paper studies the problem of solving complex chemistry problems with large language models (LLMs). Despite the extensive general knowledge in LLMs (such as GPT-4), they struggle with chemistry reasoning that requires faithful grounded reasoning with diverse chemical knowledge and an integrative understanding of chemical interactions. We propose InstructChem, a new structured reasoning approach that substantially boosts the LLMs' chemical reasoning capabilities. InstructChem explicitly decomposes the reasoning into three critical phrases, including chemical formulae generation by LLMs that offers the basis for subsequent grounded reasoning, step-by-step reasoning that makes multi-step derivations with the identified formulae for a preliminary answer, and iterative review-and-refinement that steers LLMs to progressively revise the previous phases for increasing confidence, leading to the final high-confidence answer. We conduct extensive experiments on four different chemistry challenges, including quantum chemistry, quantum mechanics, physical chemistry, and chemistry kinetics. Our approach significantly enhances GPT-4 on chemistry reasoning, yielding an 8% average absolute improvement and a 30% peak improvement. We further use the generated reasoning by GPT-4 to fine-tune smaller LMs (e.g., Vicuna) and observe strong improvement of the smaller LMs. This validates our approach and enables LLMs to generate high-quality reasoning.

Inference-Time Policy Adapters (IPA): Tailoring Extreme-Scale LMs without Fine-tuning

Large language models excel at a variety of language tasks when prompted with examples or instructions. Yet controlling these models through prompting alone is limited. Tailoring language models through fine-tuning (e.g., via reinforcement learning) can be effective, but it is expensive and requires model access. We propose Inference-time Policy Adapters (IPA), which efficiently tailors a language model such as GPT-3 without fine-tuning it. IPA guides a large base model during decoding time through a lightweight policy adaptor trained to optimize an arbitrary user objective with reinforcement learning. On five challenging text generation tasks, such as toxicity reduction and open-domain generation, IPA consistently brings significant improvements over off-the-shelf language models. It outperforms competitive baseline methods, sometimes even including expensive fine-tuning. In particular, tailoring GPT-2 with IPA can outperform GPT-3, while tailoring GPT- 3 with IPA brings a major performance boost over GPT-3 (and sometimes even over GPT-4). Our promising results highlight the potential of IPA as a lightweight alternative to tailoring extreme-scale language models.

Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 442 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.