Deconfounding Duration Bias in Watch-time Prediction for Video Recommendation

Watch-time prediction remains to be a key factor in reinforcing user engagement via video recommendations. It has become increasingly important given the ever-growing popularity of online videos. However, prediction of watch time not only depends on the match between the user and the video but is often mislead by the duration of the video itself. With the goal of improving watch time, recommendation is always biased towards videos with long duration. Models trained on this imbalanced data face the risk of bias amplification, which misguides platforms to over-recommend videos with long duration but overlook the underlying user interests. This paper presents the first work to study duration bias in watch-time prediction for video recommendation. We employ a causal graph illuminating that duration is a confounding factor that concurrently affects video exposure and watch-time prediction -- the first effect on video causes the bias issue and should be eliminated, while the second effect on watch time originates from video intrinsic characteristics and should be preserved. To remove the undesired bias but leverage the natural effect, we propose a Duration Deconfounded Quantile-based (D2Q) watch-time prediction framework, which allows for scalability to perform on industry production systems. Through extensive offline evaluation and live experiments, we showcase the effectiveness of this duration-deconfounding framework by significantly outperforming the state-of-the-art baselines. We have fully launched our approach on Kuaishou App, which has substantially improved real-time video consumption due to more accurate watch-time predictions.

ResAct: Reinforcing Long-term Engagement in Sequential Recommendation with Residual Actor

Long-term engagement is preferred over immediate engagement in sequential recommendation as it directly affects product operational metrics such as daily active users (DAUs) and dwell time. Meanwhile, reinforcement learning (RL) is widely regarded as a promising framework for optimizing long-term engagement in sequential recommendation. However, due to expensive online interactions, it is very difficult for RL algorithms to perform state-action value estimation, exploration and feature extraction when optimizing long-term engagement. In this paper, we propose ResAct which seeks a policy that is close to, but better than, the online-serving policy. In this way, we can collect sufficient data near the learned policy so that state-action values can be properly estimated, and there is no need to perform online exploration. Directly optimizing this policy is difficult due to the huge policy space. ResAct instead solves it by first reconstructing the online behaviors and then improving it. Our main contributions are fourfold. First, we design a generative model which reconstructs behaviors of the online-serving policy by sampling multiple action estimators. Second, we design an effective learning paradigm to train the residual actor which can output the residual for action improvement. Third, we facilitate the extraction of features with two information theoretical regularizers to confirm the expressiveness and conciseness of features. Fourth, we conduct extensive experiments on a real world dataset consisting of millions of sessions, and our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in various of long term engagement optimization tasks.

Constrained Reinforcement Learning for Short Video Recommendation

The wide popularity of short videos on social media poses new opportunities and challenges to optimize recommender systems on the video-sharing platforms. Users provide complex and multi-faceted responses towards recommendations, including watch time and various types of interactions with videos. As a result, established recommendation algorithms that concern a single objective are not adequate to meet this new demand of optimizing comprehensive user experiences. In this paper, we formulate the problem of short video recommendation as a constrained Markov Decision Process (MDP), where platforms want to optimize the main goal of user watch time in long term, with the constraint of accommodating the auxiliary responses of user interactions such as sharing/downloading videos. To solve the constrained MDP, we propose a two-stage reinforcement learning approach based on actor-critic framework. At stage one, we learn individual policies to optimize each auxiliary response. At stage two, we learn a policy to (i) optimize the main response and (ii) stay close to policies learned at the first stage, which effectively guarantees the performance of this main policy on the auxiliaries. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate effectiveness of our approach over alternatives in both optimizing the main goal as well as balancing the others. We further show the advantage of our approach in live experiments of short video recommendations, where it significantly outperforms other baselines in terms of watch time and interactions from video views. Our approach has been fully launched in the production system to optimize user experiences on the platform.

PASTO: Strategic Parameter Optimization in Recommendation Systems -- Probabilistic is Better than Deterministic

Real-world recommendation systems often consist of two phases. In the first phase, multiple predictive models produce the probability of different immediate user actions. In the second phase, these predictions are aggregated according to a set of 'strategic parameters' to meet a diverse set of business goals, such as longer user engagement, higher revenue potential, or more community/network interactions. In addition to building accurate predictive models, it is also crucial to optimize this set of 'strategic parameters' so that primary goals are optimized while secondary guardrails are not hurt. In this setting with multiple and constrained goals, this paper discovers that a probabilistic strategic parameter regime can achieve better value compared to the standard regime of finding a single deterministic parameter. The new probabilistic regime is to learn the best distribution over strategic parameter choices and sample one strategic parameter from the distribution when each user visits the platform. To pursue the optimal probabilistic solution, we formulate the problem into a stochastic compositional optimization problem, in which the unbiased stochastic gradient is unavailable. Our approach is applied in a popular social network platform with hundreds of millions of daily users and achieves +0.22% lift of user engagement in a recommendation task and +1.7% lift in revenue in an advertising optimization scenario comparing to using the best deterministic parameter strategy.