Topic:Trajectory Prediction
What is Trajectory Prediction? Trajectory prediction is the process of forecasting the future path of moving objects based on historical trajectory data.
Papers and Code
Apr 07, 2025
Abstract:Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a widely adopted control paradigm that leverages predictive models to estimate future system states and optimize control inputs accordingly. However, while MPC excels in planning and control, it lacks the capability for environmental perception, leading to failures in complex and unstructured scenarios. To address this limitation, we introduce Vision-Language Model Predictive Control (VLMPC), a robotic manipulation planning framework that integrates the perception power of vision-language models (VLMs) with MPC. VLMPC utilizes a conditional action sampling module that takes a goal image or language instruction as input and leverages VLM to generate candidate action sequences. These candidates are fed into a video prediction model that simulates future frames based on the actions. In addition, we propose an enhanced variant, Traj-VLMPC, which replaces video prediction with motion trajectory generation to reduce computational complexity while maintaining accuracy. Traj-VLMPC estimates motion dynamics conditioned on the candidate actions, offering a more efficient alternative for long-horizon tasks and real-time applications. Both VLMPC and Traj-VLMPC select the optimal action sequence using a VLM-based hierarchical cost function that captures both pixel-level and knowledge-level consistency between the current observation and the task input. We demonstrate that both approaches outperform existing state-of-the-art methods on public benchmarks and achieve excellent performance in various real-world robotic manipulation tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/PPjmchen/VLMPC.
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Apr 17, 2025
Abstract:This paper proposes a genetic algorithm-based kinodynamic planning algorithm (GAKD) for car-like vehicles navigating uneven terrains modeled as triangular meshes. The algorithm's distinct feature is trajectory optimization over a fixed-length receding horizon using a genetic algorithm with heuristic-based mutation, ensuring the vehicle's controls remain within its valid operational range. By addressing challenges posed by uneven terrain meshes, such as changing face normals, GAKD offers a practical solution for path planning in complex environments. Comparative evaluations against Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) and log-MPPI methods show that GAKD achieves up to 20 percent improvement in traversability cost while maintaining comparable path length. These results demonstrate GAKD's potential in improving vehicle navigation on challenging terrains.
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Apr 01, 2025
Abstract:Collision avoidance capability is an essential component in an autonomous vessel navigation system. To this end, an accurate prediction of dynamic obstacle trajectories is vital. Traditional approaches to trajectory prediction face limitations in generalizability and often fail to account for the intentions of other vessels. While recent research has considered incorporating the intentions of dynamic obstacles, these efforts are typically based on the own-ship's interpretation of the situation. The current state-of-the-art in this area is a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model, which infers target vessel intentions by considering multiple underlying causes and allowing for different interpretations of the situation by different vessels. However, since its inception, there have not been any significant structural improvements to this model. In this paper, we propose enhancing the DBN model by incorporating considerations for grounding hazards and vessel waypoint information. The proposed model is validated using real vessel encounters extracted from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data.
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Mar 31, 2025
Abstract:Understanding human motion is crucial for accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction. Conventional methods typically rely on supervised learning, where ground-truth labels are directly optimized against predicted trajectories. This amplifies the limitations caused by long-tailed data distributions, making it difficult for the model to capture abnormal behaviors. In this work, we propose a self-supervised pedestrian trajectory prediction framework that explicitly models position, velocity, and acceleration. We leverage velocity and acceleration information to enhance position prediction through feature injection and a self-supervised motion consistency mechanism. Our model hierarchically injects velocity features into the position stream. Acceleration features are injected into the velocity stream. This enables the model to predict position, velocity, and acceleration jointly. From the predicted position, we compute corresponding pseudo velocity and acceleration, allowing the model to learn from data-generated pseudo labels and thus achieve self-supervised learning. We further design a motion consistency evaluation strategy grounded in physical principles; it selects the most reasonable predicted motion trend by comparing it with historical dynamics and uses this trend to guide and constrain trajectory generation. We conduct experiments on the ETH-UCY and Stanford Drone datasets, demonstrating that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both datasets.
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Apr 14, 2025
Abstract:An agent's intention often remains hidden behind the black-box nature of embodied policies. Communication using natural language statements that describe the next action can provide transparency towards the agent's behavior. We aim to insert transparent behavior directly into the learning process, by transforming the problem of policy learning into a language generation problem and combining it with traditional autoregressive modelling. The resulting model produces transparent natural language statements followed by tokens representing the specific actions to solve long-horizon tasks in the Language-Table environment. Following previous work, the model is able to learn to produce a policy represented by special discretized tokens in an autoregressive manner. We place special emphasis on investigating the relationship between predicting actions and producing high-quality language for a transparent agent. We find that in many cases both the quality of the action trajectory and the transparent statement increase when they are generated simultaneously.
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Apr 11, 2025
Abstract:This paper presents a Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) filter for multi-target filtering based on sensor measurements that are sets of trajectories in the last two-time step window. The proposed filter, the trajectory measurement PMBM (TM-PMBM) filter, propagates a PMBM density on the set of target states. In prediction, the filter obtains the PMBM density on the set of trajectories over the last two time steps. This density is then updated with the set of trajectory measurements. After the update step, the PMBM posterior on the set of two-step trajectories is marginalised to obtain a PMBM density on the set of target states. The filter provides a closed-form solution for multi-target filtering based on sets of trajectory measurements, estimating the set of target states at the end of each time window. Additionally, the paper proposes computationally lighter alternatives to the TM-PMBM filter by deriving a Poisson multi-Bernoulli (PMB) density through Kullback-Leibler divergence minimisation in an augmented space with auxiliary variables. The performance of the proposed filters are evaluated in a simulation study.
* 16 pages, 7 figures, journal paper
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Apr 14, 2025
Abstract:Foundation models (FMs) trained on electronic health records (EHRs) have shown strong performance on a range of clinical prediction tasks. However, adapting these models to local health systems remains challenging due to limited data availability and resource constraints. In this study, we investigated what these models learn and evaluated the transferability of an FM trained on MIMIC-IV to an institutional EHR dataset at the University of Chicago Medical Center. We assessed their ability to identify outlier patients and examined representation-space patient trajectories in relation to future clinical outcomes. We also evaluated the performance of supervised fine-tuned classifiers on both source and target datasets. Our findings offer insights into the adaptability of FMs across different healthcare systems, highlight considerations for their effective implementation, and provide an empirical analysis of the underlying factors that contribute to their predictive performance.
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Apr 09, 2025
Abstract:Data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) has recently emerged as a powerful data-driven approach for efficient system controls with constraints handling capabilities. It performs optimal controls by directly harnessing input-output (I/O) data, bypassing the process of explicit model identification that can be costly and time-consuming. However, its high computational complexity, driven by a large-scale optimization problem (typically in a higher dimension than its model-based counterpart--Model Predictive Control), hinders real-time applications. To overcome this limitation, we propose the data-enabled neighboring extremal (DeeNE) framework, which significantly reduces computational cost while preserving control performance. DeeNE leverages first-order optimality perturbation analysis to efficiently update a precomputed nominal DeePC solution in response to changes in initial conditions and reference trajectories. We validate its effectiveness on a 7-DoF KINOVA Gen3 robotic arm, demonstrating substantial computational savings and robust, data-driven control performance.
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Apr 18, 2025
Abstract:Soft robots exhibit inherent compliance and safety, which makes them particularly suitable for applications requiring direct physical interaction with humans, such as surgical procedures. However, their nonlinear and hysteretic behavior, resulting from the properties of soft materials, presents substantial challenges for accurate modeling and control. In this study, we present a soft robotic system designed for surgical applications and propose a hysteresis-aware whole-body neural network model that accurately captures and predicts the soft robot's whole-body motion, including its hysteretic behavior. Building upon the high-precision dynamic model, we construct a highly parallel simulation environment for soft robot control and apply an on-policy reinforcement learning algorithm to efficiently train whole-body motion control strategies. Based on the trained control policy, we developed a soft robotic system for surgical applications and validated it through phantom-based laser ablation experiments in a physical environment. The results demonstrate that the hysteresis-aware modeling reduces the Mean Squared Error (MSE) by 84.95 percent compared to traditional modeling methods. The deployed control algorithm achieved a trajectory tracking error ranging from 0.126 to 0.250 mm on the real soft robot, highlighting its precision in real-world conditions. The proposed method showed strong performance in phantom-based surgical experiments and demonstrates its potential for complex scenarios, including future real-world clinical applications.
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Apr 03, 2025
Abstract:This paper presents novel Machine Learning (ML) methodologies for Multi-Object Tracking (MOT), specifically designed to meet the increasing complexity and precision demands of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). We introduce three Neural Network (NN) models that address key challenges in MOT: (i) the Single-Prediction Network (SPENT) for trajectory prediction, (ii) the Single-Association Network (SANT) for mapping individual Sensor Object (SO) to existing tracks, and (iii) the Multi-Association Network (MANTa) for associating multiple SOs to multiple tracks. These models are seamlessly integrated into a traditional Kalman Filter (KF) framework, maintaining the system's modularity by replacing relevant components without disrupting the overall architecture. Importantly, all three networks are designed to be run in a realtime, embedded environment. Each network contains less than 50k trainable parameters. Our evaluation, conducted on the public KITTI tracking dataset, demonstrates significant improvements in tracking performance. SPENT reduces the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 50% compared to a standard KF, while SANT and MANTa achieve up to 95% accuracy in sensor object-to-track assignments. These results underscore the effectiveness of incorporating task-specific NNs into traditional tracking systems, boosting performance and robustness while preserving modularity, maintainability, and interpretability.
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