Multi-Integration of Labels across Categories for Component Identification (MILCCI)

Many fields collect large-scale temporal data through repeated measurements (trials), where each trial is labeled with a set of metadata variables spanning several categories. For example, a trial in a neuroscience study may be linked to a value from category (a): task difficulty, and category (b): animal choice. A critical challenge in time-series analysis is to understand how these labels are encoded within the multi-trial observations, and disentangle the distinct effect of each label entry across categories. Here, we present MILCCI, a novel data-driven method that i) identifies the interpretable components underlying the data, ii) captures cross-trial variability, and iii) integrates label information to understand each category's representation within the data. MILCCI extends a sparse per-trial decomposition that leverages label similarities within each category to enable subtle, label-driven cross-trial adjustments in component compositions and to distinguish the contribution of each category. MILCCI also learns each component's corresponding temporal trace, which evolves over time within each trial and varies flexibly across trials. We demonstrate MILCCI's performance through both synthetic and real-world examples, including voting patterns, online page view trends, and neuronal recordings.

From Signals to Causes: A Causal Signal Processing Framework for Robust and Interpretable Clinical Risk Prediction

Learning-based signal processing systems increasingly support high-stakes medical decisions using heterogeneous biomedical signals, including medical images, physiological time series, and clinical records. Despite strong predictive performance, many models rely on statistical correlations that are unstable across acquisition settings, patient populations, and institutional practices, limiting robustness, interpretability, and clinical trust. We advocate a causal signal processing perspective in which biomedical signals are treated as effects of latent generative mechanisms rather than as isolated predictive inputs. Using clinical risk prediction as a motivating example, we show how disease-related factors generate observable biomarkers, while acquisition processes act as confounders influencing signal appearance. In clinical disease risk prediction from chest CT scans and patient risk factors, correlational models may fail under scanner changes, whereas causal abstractions remain invariant. Building on this view, we propose a unifying conceptual framework integrating causal modeling with learning-based signal processing and neuro-symbolic reasoning. Statistical models extract multimodal representations that are mapped to interpretable causal abstractions and combined with symbolic knowledge encoding clinical risk factors and guidelines. This structure enables clinically grounded explanations, counterfactual reasoning about hypothetical interventions, and improved robustness to distribution shifts arising from changes in acquisition conditions or screening policies. Rather than introducing a specific algorithm, this article presents schematic causal structures and a comparative analysis of correlation-based, causal, and neuro-symbolic approaches to guide the design of robust and interpretable medical decision-support systems.

Learning Unknown Interdependencies for Decentralized Root Cause Analysis in Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Root cause analysis (RCA) in networked industrial systems, such as supply chains and power networks, is notoriously difficult due to unknown and dynamically evolving interdependencies among geographically distributed clients. These clients represent heterogeneous physical processes and industrial assets equipped with sensors that generate large volumes of nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heterogeneous IoT data. Classical RCA methods require partial or full knowledge of the system's dependency graph, which is rarely available in these complex networks. While federated learning (FL) offers a natural framework for decentralized settings, most existing FL methods assume homogeneous feature spaces and retrainable client models. These assumptions are not compatible with our problem setting. Different clients have different data features and often run fixed, proprietary models that cannot be modified. This paper presents a federated cross-client interdependency learning methodology for feature-partitioned, nonlinear time-series data, without requiring access to raw sensor streams or modifying proprietary client models. Each proprietary local client model is augmented with a Machine Learning (ML) model that encodes cross-client interdependencies. These ML models are coordinated via a global server that enforces representation consistency while preserving privacy through calibrated differential privacy noise. RCA is performed using model residuals and anomaly flags. We establish theoretical convergence guarantees and validate our approach on extensive simulations and a real-world industrial cybersecurity dataset.

From Classical to Topological Neural Networks Under Uncertainty

This chapter explores neural networks, topological data analysis, and topological deep learning techniques, alongside statistical Bayesian methods, for processing images, time series, and graphs to maximize the potential of artificial intelligence in the military domain. Throughout the chapter, we highlight practical applications spanning image, video, audio, and time-series recognition, fraud detection, and link prediction for graphical data, illustrating how topology-aware and uncertainty-aware models can enhance robustness, interpretability, and generalization.

Low Rank Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection and Localization

Multivariate time series (MTS) anomaly diagnosis, which encompasses both anomaly detection and localization, is critical for the safety and reliability of complex, large-scale real-world systems. The vast majority of existing anomaly diagnosis methods offer limited theoretical insights, especially for anomaly localization, which is a vital but largely unexplored area. The aim of this contribution is to study the learning process of a Transformer when applied to MTS by revealing connections to statistical time series methods. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose the Attention Low-Rank Transformer (ALoRa-T) model, which applies low-rank regularization to self-attention, and we introduce the Attention Low-Rank score, effectively capturing the temporal characteristics of anomalies. Finally, to enable anomaly localization, we propose the ALoRa-Loc method, a novel approach that associates anomalies to specific variables by quantifying interrelationships among time series. Extensive experiments and real data analysis, show that the proposed methodology significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.

Continuous-Time Piecewise-Linear Recurrent Neural Networks

In dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) we aim to recover the dynamical system (DS) underlying observed time series. Specifically, we aim to learn a generative surrogate model which approximates the underlying, data-generating DS, and recreates its long-term properties (`climate statistics'). In scientific and medical areas, in particular, these models need to be mechanistically tractable -- through their mathematical analysis we would like to obtain insight into the recovered system's workings. Piecewise-linear (PL), ReLU-based RNNs (PLRNNs) have a strong track-record in this regard, representing SOTA DSR models while allowing mathematical insight by virtue of their PL design. However, all current PLRNN variants are discrete-time maps. This is in disaccord with the assumed continuous-time nature of most physical and biological processes, and makes it hard to accommodate data arriving at irregular temporal intervals. Neural ODEs are one solution, but they do not reach the DSR performance of PLRNNs and often lack their tractability. Here we develop theory for continuous-time PLRNNs (cPLRNNs): We present a novel algorithm for training and simulating such models, bypassing numerical integration by efficiently exploiting their PL structure. We further demonstrate how important topological objects like equilibria or limit cycles can be determined semi-analytically in trained models. We compare cPLRNNs to both their discrete-time cousins as well as Neural ODEs on DSR benchmarks, including systems with discontinuities which come with hard thresholds.

MuRAL-CPD: Active Learning for Multiresolution Change Point Detection

Change Point Detection (CPD) is a critical task in time series analysis, aiming to identify moments when the underlying data-generating process shifts. Traditional CPD methods often rely on unsupervised techniques, which lack adaptability to task-specific definitions of change and cannot benefit from user knowledge. To address these limitations, we propose MuRAL-CPD, a novel semi-supervised method that integrates active learning into a multiresolution CPD algorithm. MuRAL-CPD leverages a wavelet-based multiresolution decomposition to detect changes across multiple temporal scales and incorporates user feedback to iteratively optimize key hyperparameters. This interaction enables the model to align its notion of change with that of the user, improving both accuracy and interpretability. Our experimental results on several real-world datasets show the effectiveness of MuRAL-CPD against state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios where minimal supervision is available.

Position: Why a Dynamical Systems Perspective is Needed to Advance Time Series Modeling

Time series (TS) modeling has come a long way from early statistical, mainly linear, approaches to the current trend in TS foundation models. With a lot of hype and industrial demand in this field, it is not always clear how much progress there really is. To advance TS forecasting and analysis to the next level, here we argue that the field needs a dynamical systems (DS) perspective. TS of observations from natural or engineered systems almost always originate from some underlying DS, and arguably access to its governing equations would yield theoretically optimal forecasts. This is the promise of DS reconstruction (DSR), a class of ML/AI approaches that aim to infer surrogate models of the underlying DS from data. But models based on DS principles offer other profound advantages: Beyond short-term forecasts, they enable to predict the long-term statistics of an observed system, which in many practical scenarios may be the more relevant quantities. DS theory furthermore provides domain-independent theoretical insight into mechanisms underlying TS generation, and thereby will inform us, e.g., about upper bounds on performance of any TS model, generalization into unseen regimes as in tipping points, or potential control strategies. After reviewing some of the central concepts, methods, measures, and models in DS theory and DSR, we will discuss how insights from this field can advance TS modeling in crucial ways, enabling better forecasting with much lower computational and memory footprints. We conclude with a number of specific suggestions for translating insights from DSR into TS modeling.

Real time fault detection in 3D printers using Convolutional Neural Networks and acoustic signals

The reliability and quality of 3D printing processes are critically dependent on the timely detection of mechanical faults. Traditional monitoring methods often rely on visual inspection and hardware sensors, which can be both costly and limited in scope. This paper explores a scalable and contactless method for the use of real-time audio signal analysis for detecting mechanical faults in 3D printers. By capturing and classifying acoustic emissions during the printing process, we aim to identify common faults such as nozzle clogging, filament breakage, pully skipping and various other mechanical faults. Utilizing Convolutional neural networks, we implement algorithms capable of real-time audio classification to detect these faults promptly. Our methodology involves conducting a series of controlled experiments to gather audio data, followed by the application of advanced machine learning models for fault detection. Additionally, we review existing literature on audio-based fault detection in manufacturing and 3D printing to contextualize our research within the broader field. Preliminary results demonstrate that audio signals, when analyzed with machine learning techniques, provide a reliable and cost-effective means of enhancing real-time fault detection.

AgriWorld:A World Tools Protocol Framework for Verifiable Agricultural Reasoning with Code-Executing LLM Agents

Foundation models for agriculture are increasingly trained on massive spatiotemporal data (e.g., multi-spectral remote sensing, soil grids, and field-level management logs) and achieve strong performance on forecasting and monitoring. However, these models lack language-based reasoning and interactive capabilities, limiting their usefulness in real-world agronomic workflows. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) excel at interpreting and generating text, but cannot directly reason over high-dimensional, heterogeneous agricultural datasets. We bridge this gap with an agentic framework for agricultural science. It provides a Python execution environment, AgriWorld, exposing unified tools for geospatial queries over field parcels, remote-sensing time-series analytics, crop growth simulation, and task-specific predictors (e.g., yield, stress, and disease risk). On top of this environment, we design a multi-turn LLM agent, Agro-Reflective, that iteratively writes code, observes execution results, and refines its analysis via an execute-observe-refine loop. We introduce AgroBench, with scalable data generation for diverse agricultural QA spanning lookups, forecasting, anomaly detection, and counterfactual "what-if" analysis. Experiments outperform text-only and direct tool-use baselines, validating execution-driven reflection for reliable agricultural reasoning.