LISA: Laplacian In-context Spectral Analysis

We propose Laplacian In-context Spectral Analysis (LISA), a method for inference-time adaptation of Laplacian-based time-series models using only an observed prefix. LISA combines delay-coordinate embeddings and Laplacian spectral learning to produce diffusion-coordinate state representations, together with a frozen nonlinear decoder for one-step prediction. We introduce lightweight latent-space residual adapters based on either Gaussian-process regression or an attention-like Markov operator over context windows. Across forecasting and autoregressive rollout experiments, LISA improves over the frozen baseline and is often most beneficial under changing dynamics. This work links in-context adaptation to nonparametric spectral methods for dynamical systems.

Deep Modeling and Interpretation for Bladder Cancer Classification

Deep models based on vision transformer (ViT) and convolutional neural network (CNN) have demonstrated remarkable performance on natural datasets. However, these models may not be similar in medical imaging, where abnormal regions cover only a small portion of the image. This challenge motivates this study to investigate the latest deep models for bladder cancer classification tasks. We propose the following to evaluate these deep models: 1) standard classification using 13 models (four CNNs and eight transormer-based models), 2) calibration analysis to examine if these models are well calibrated for bladder cancer classification, and 3) we use GradCAM++ to evaluate the interpretability of these models for clinical diagnosis. We simulate $\sim 300$ experiments on a publicly multicenter bladder cancer dataset, and the experimental results demonstrate that the ConvNext series indicate limited generalization ability to classify bladder cancer images (e.g., $\sim 60\%$ accuracy). In addition, ViTs show better calibration effects compared to ConvNext and swin transformer series. We also involve test time augmentation to improve the models interpretability. Finally, no model provides a one-size-fits-all solution for a feasible interpretable model. ConvNext series are suitable for in-distribution samples, while ViT and its variants are suitable for interpreting out-of-distribution samples.

AWGformer: Adaptive Wavelet-Guided Transformer for Multi-Resolution Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting requires capturing patterns across multiple temporal scales while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper introduces AWGformer, a novel architecture that integrates adaptive wavelet decomposition with cross-scale attention mechanisms for enhanced multi-variate time series prediction. Our approach comprises: (1) an Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition Module (AWDM) that dynamically selects optimal wavelet bases and decomposition levels based on signal characteristics; (2) a Cross-Scale Feature Fusion (CSFF) mechanism that captures interactions between different frequency bands through learnable coupling matrices; (3) a Frequency-Aware Multi-Head Attention (FAMA) module that weights attention heads according to their frequency selectivity; (4) a Hierarchical Prediction Network (HPN) that generates forecasts at multiple resolutions before reconstruction. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that AWGformer achieves significant average improvements over state-of-the-art methods, with particular effectiveness on multi-scale and non-stationary time series. Theoretical analysis provides convergence guarantees and establishes the connection between our wavelet-guided attention and classical signal processing principles.

Sample Complexity of Causal Identification with Temporal Heterogeneity

Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data is an ill-posed problem because multiple generating mechanisms can lead to the same observational distribution. This problem becomes solvable only by exploiting specific structural or distributional assumptions. While recent work has separately utilized time-series dynamics or multi-environment heterogeneity to constrain this problem, we integrate both as complementary sources of heterogeneity. This integration yields unified necessary identifiability conditions and enables a rigorous analysis of the statistical limits of recovery under thin versus heavy-tailed noise. In particular, temporal structure is shown to effectively substitute for missing environmental diversity, possibly achieving identifiability even under insufficient heterogeneity. Extending this analysis to heavy-tailed (Student's t) distributions, we demonstrate that while geometric identifiability conditions remain invariant, the sample complexity diverges significantly from the Gaussian baseline. Explicit information-theoretic bounds quantify this cost of robustness, establishing the fundamental limits of covariance-based causal graph recovery methods in realistic non-stationary systems. This work shifts the focus from whether causal structure is identifiable to whether it is statistically recoverable in practice.

TS-Debate: Multimodal Collaborative Debate for Zero-Shot Time Series Reasoning

Recent progress at the intersection of large language models (LLMs) and time series (TS) analysis has revealed both promise and fragility. While LLMs can reason over temporal structure given carefully engineered context, they often struggle with numeric fidelity, modality interference, and principled cross-modal integration. We present TS-Debate, a modality-specialized, collaborative multi-agent debate framework for zero-shot time series reasoning. TS-Debate assigns dedicated expert agents to textual context, visual patterns, and numerical signals, preceded by explicit domain knowledge elicitation, and coordinates their interaction via a structured debate protocol. Reviewer agents evaluate agent claims using a verification-conflict-calibration mechanism, supported by lightweight code execution and numerical lookup for programmatic verification. This architecture preserves modality fidelity, exposes conflicting evidence, and mitigates numeric hallucinations without task-specific fine-tuning. Across 20 tasks spanning three public benchmarks, TS-Debate achieves consistent and significant performance improvements over strong baselines, including standard multimodal debate in which all agents observe all inputs.

Time-to-Event Transformer to Capture Timing Attention of Events in EHR Time Series

Automatically discovering personalized sequential events from large-scale time-series data is crucial for enabling precision medicine in clinical research, yet it remains a formidable challenge even for contemporary AI models. For example, while transformers capture rich associations, they are mostly agnostic to event timing and ordering, thereby bypassing potential causal reasoning. Intuitively, we need a method capable of evaluating the "degree of alignment" among patient-specific trajectories and identifying their shared patterns, i.e., the significant events in a consistent sequence. This necessitates treating timing as a true \emph{computable} dimension, allowing models to assign ``relative timestamps'' to candidate events beyond their observed physical times. In this work, we introduce LITT, a novel Timing-Transformer architecture that enables temporary alignment of sequential events on a virtual ``relative timeline'', thereby enabling \emph{event-timing-focused attention} and personalized interpretations of clinical trajectories. Its interpretability and effectiveness are validated on real-world longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients to predict the onset timing of cardiotoxicity-induced heart disease. Furthermore, LITT outperforms both the benchmark and state-of-the-art survival analysis methods on public datasets, positioning it as a significant step forward for precision medicine in clinical AI.

Statistical benchmarking of transformer models in low signal-to-noise time-series forecasting

We study the performance of transformer architectures for multivariate time-series forecasting in low-data regimes consisting of only a few years of daily observations. Using synthetically generated processes with known temporal and cross-sectional dependency structures and varying signal-to-noise ratios, we conduct bootstrapped experiments that enable direct evaluation via out-of-sample correlations with the optimal ground-truth predictor. We show that two-way attention transformers, which alternate between temporal and cross-sectional self-attention, can outperform standard baselines-Lasso, boosting methods, and fully connected multilayer perceptrons-across a wide range of settings, including low signal-to-noise regimes. We further introduce a dynamic sparsification procedure for attention matrices applied during training, and demonstrate that it becomes significantly effective in noisy environments, where the correlation between the target variable and the optimal predictor is on the order of a few percent. Analysis of the learned attention patterns reveals interpretable structure and suggests connections to sparsity-inducing regularization in classical regression, providing insight into why these models generalize effectively under noise.

Changepoint Detection As Model Selection: A General Framework

This dissertation presents a general framework for changepoint detection based on L0 model selection. The core method, Iteratively Reweighted Fused Lasso (IRFL), improves upon the generalized lasso by adaptively reweighting penalties to enhance support recovery and minimize criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The approach allows for flexible modeling of seasonal patterns, linear and quadratic trends, and autoregressive dependence in the presence of changepoints. Simulation studies demonstrate that IRFL achieves accurate changepoint detection across a wide range of challenging scenarios, including those involving nuisance factors such as trends, seasonal patterns, and serially correlated errors. The framework is further extended to image data, where it enables edge-preserving denoising and segmentation, with applications spanning medical imaging and high-throughput plant phenotyping. Applications to real-world data demonstrate IRFL's utility. In particular, analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 time series reveals changepoints that align with volcanic eruptions and ENSO events, yielding a more accurate trend decomposition than ordinary least squares. Overall, IRFL provides a robust, extensible tool for detecting structural change in complex data.

Tabular Foundation Models Can Do Survival Analysis

While tabular foundation models have achieved remarkable success in classification and regression, adapting them to model time-to-event outcomes for survival analysis is non-trivial due to right-censoring, where data observations may end before the event occurs. We develop a classification-based framework that reformulates both static and dynamic survival analysis as a series of binary classification problems by discretizing event times. Censored observations are naturally handled as examples with missing labels at certain time points. This classification formulation enables existing tabular foundation models to perform survival analysis through in-context learning without explicit training. We prove that under standard censoring assumptions, minimizing our binary classification loss recovers the true survival probabilities as the training set size increases. We demonstrate through evaluation across $53$ real-world datasets that off-the-shelf tabular foundation models with this classification formulation outperform classical and deep learning baselines on average over multiple survival metrics.

DA-SPS: A Dual-stage Network based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Patching-strategy and Spearman-correlation for Multivariate Time-series Prediction

Multivariate time-series forecasting, as a typical problem in the field of time series prediction, has a wide range of applications in weather forecasting, traffic flow prediction, and other scenarios. However, existing works do not effectively consider the impact of extraneous variables on the prediction of the target variable. On the other hand, they fail to fully extract complex sequence information based on various time patterns of the sequences. To address these drawbacks, we propose a DA-SPS model, which adopts different modules for feature extraction based on the information characteristics of different variables. DA-SPS mainly consists of two stages: the target variable processing stage (TVPS) and the extraneous variables processing stage (EVPS). In TVPS, the model first uses Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to process the target variable sequence and then uses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and P-Conv-LSTM which deploys a patching strategy to extract features from trend and seasonality components, respectively. In EVPS, the model filters extraneous variables that have a strong correlation with the target variate by using Spearman correlation analysis and further analyses them using the L-Attention module which consists of LSTM and attention mechanism. Finally, the results obtained by TVPS and EVPS are combined through weighted summation and linear mapping to produce the final prediction. The results on four public datasets demonstrate that the DA-SPS model outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, its performance in real-world scenarios is further validated using a private dataset collected by ourselves, which contains the test items' information on laptop motherboards.