Estimating Pasture Biomass from Top-View Images: A Dataset for Precision Agriculture

Accurate estimation of pasture biomass is important for decision-making in livestock production systems. Estimates of pasture biomass can be used to manage stocking rates to maximise pasture utilisation, while minimising the risk of overgrazing and promoting overall system health. We present a comprehensive dataset of 1,162 annotated top-view images of pastures collected across 19 locations in Australia. The images were taken across multiple seasons and include a range of temperate pasture species. Each image captures a 70cm * 30cm quadrat and is paired with on-ground measurements including biomass sorted by component (green, dead, and legume fraction), vegetation height, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Active Optical Sensors (AOS). The multidimensional nature of the data, which combines visual, spectral, and structural information, opens up new possibilities for advancing the use of precision grazing management. The dataset is released and hosted in a Kaggle competition that challenges the international Machine Learning community with the task of pasture biomass estimation. The dataset is available on the official Kaggle webpage: https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/csiro-biomass

GroupSHAP-Guided Integration of Financial News Keywords and Technical Indicators for Stock Price Prediction

Recent advances in finance-specific language models such as FinBERT have enabled the quantification of public sentiment into index-based measures, yet compressing diverse linguistic signals into single metrics overlooks contextual nuances and limits interpretability. To address this limitation, explainable AI techniques, particularly SHAP (SHapley Additive Explanations), have been employed to identify influential features. However, SHAP's computational cost grows exponentially with input features, making it impractical for large-scale text-based financial data. This study introduces a GRU-based forecasting framework enhanced with GroupSHAP, which quantifies contributions of semantically related keyword groups rather than individual tokens, substantially reducing computational burden while preserving interpretability. We employed FinBERT to embed news articles from 2015 to 2024, clustered them into coherent semantic groups, and applied GroupSHAP to measure each group's contribution to stock price movements. The resulting group-level SHAP variables across multiple topics were used as input features for the prediction model. Empirical results from one-day-ahead forecasting of the S&P 500 index throughout 2024 demonstrate that our approach achieves a 32.2% reduction in MAE and a 40.5% reduction in RMSE compared with benchmark models without the GroupSHAP mechanism. This research presents the first application of GroupSHAP in news-driven financial forecasting, showing that grouped sentiment representations simultaneously enhance interpretability and predictive performance.

RETuning: Upgrading Inference-Time Scaling for Stock Movement Prediction with Large Language Models

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement prediction-remains underexplored. We study a three-class classification problem (up, hold, down) and, by analyzing existing reasoning responses, observe that: (1) LLMs follow analysts' opinions rather than exhibit a systematic, independent analytical logic (CoTs). (2) LLMs list summaries from different sources without weighing adversarial evidence, yet such counterevidence is crucial for reliable prediction. It shows that the model does not make good use of its reasoning ability to complete the task. To address this, we propose Reflective Evidence Tuning (RETuning), a cold-start method prior to reinforcement learning, to enhance prediction ability. While generating CoT, RETuning encourages dynamically constructing an analytical framework from diverse information sources, organizing and scoring evidence for price up or down based on that framework-rather than on contextual viewpoints-and finally reflecting to derive the prediction. This approach maximally aligns the model with its learned analytical framework, ensuring independent logical reasoning and reducing undue influence from context. We also build a large-scale dataset spanning all of 2024 for 5,123 A-share stocks, with long contexts (32K tokens) and over 200K samples. In addition to price and news, it incorporates analysts' opinions, quantitative reports, fundamental data, macroeconomic indicators, and similar stocks. Experiments show that RETuning successfully unlocks the model's reasoning ability in the financial domain. Inference-time scaling still works even after 6 months or on out-of-distribution stocks, since the models gain valuable insights about stock movement prediction.

Aligning Multilingual News for Stock Return Prediction

News spreads rapidly across languages and regions, but translations may lose subtle nuances. We propose a method to align sentences in multilingual news articles using optimal transport, identifying semantically similar content across languages. We apply this method to align more than 140,000 pairs of Bloomberg English and Japanese news articles covering around 3500 stocks in Tokyo exchange over 2012-2024. Aligned sentences are sparser, more interpretable, and exhibit higher semantic similarity. Return scores constructed from aligned sentences show stronger correlations with realized stock returns, and long-short trading strategies based on these alignments achieve 10\% higher Sharpe ratios than analyzing the full text sample.

On Evaluating Loss Functions for Stock Ranking: An Empirical Analysis With Transformer Model

Quantitative trading strategies rely on accurately ranking stocks to identify profitable investments. Effective portfolio management requires models that can reliably order future stock returns. Transformer models are promising for understanding financial time series, but how different training loss functions affect their ability to rank stocks well is not yet fully understood. Financial markets are challenging due to their changing nature and complex relationships between stocks. Standard loss functions, which aim for simple prediction accuracy, often aren't enough. They don't directly teach models to learn the correct order of stock returns. While many advanced ranking losses exist from fields such as information retrieval, there hasn't been a thorough comparison to see how well they work for ranking financial returns, especially when used with modern Transformer models for stock selection. This paper addresses this gap by systematically evaluating a diverse set of advanced loss functions including pointwise, pairwise, listwise for daily stock return forecasting to facilitate rank-based portfolio selection on S&P 500 data. We focus on assessing how each loss function influences the model's ability to discern profitable relative orderings among assets. Our research contributes a comprehensive benchmark revealing how different loss functions impact a model's ability to learn cross-sectional and temporal patterns crucial for portfolio selection, thereby offering practical guidance for optimizing ranking-based trading strategies.

FinAI Data Assistant: LLM-based Financial Database Query Processing with the OpenAI Function Calling API

We present FinAI Data Assistant, a practical approach for natural-language querying over financial databases that combines large language models (LLMs) with the OpenAI Function Calling API. Rather than synthesizing complete SQL via text-to-SQL, our system routes user requests to a small library of vetted, parameterized queries, trading generative flexibility for reliability, low latency, and cost efficiency. We empirically study three questions: (RQ1) whether LLMs alone can reliably recall or extrapolate time-dependent financial data without external retrieval; (RQ2) how well LLMs map company names to stock ticker symbols; and (RQ3) whether function calling outperforms text-to-SQL for end-to-end database query processing. Across controlled experiments on prices and fundamentals, LLM-only predictions exhibit non-negligible error and show look-ahead bias primarily for stock prices relative to model knowledge cutoffs. Ticker-mapping accuracy is near-perfect for NASDAQ-100 constituents and high for S\&P~500 firms. Finally, FinAI Data Assistant achieves lower latency and cost and higher reliability than a text-to-SQL baseline on our task suite. We discuss design trade-offs, limitations, and avenues for deployment.

Bayesian Optimization for Dynamic Pricing and Learning

Dynamic pricing is the practice of adjusting the selling price of a product to maximize a firm's revenue by responding to market demand. The literature typically distinguishes between two settings: infinite inventory, where the firm has unlimited stock and time to sell, and finite inventory, where both inventory and selling horizon are limited. In both cases, the central challenge lies in the fact that the demand function -- how sales respond to price -- is unknown and must be learned from data. Traditional approaches often assume a specific parametric form for the demand function, enabling the use of reinforcement learning (RL) to identify near-optimal pricing strategies. However, such assumptions may not hold in real-world scenarios, limiting the applicability of these methods. In this work, we propose a Gaussian Process (GP) based nonparametric approach to dynamic pricing that avoids restrictive modeling assumptions. We treat the demand function as a black-box function of the price and develop pricing algorithms based on Bayesian Optimization (BO) -- a sample-efficient method for optimizing unknown functions. We present BO-based algorithms tailored for both infinite and finite inventory settings and provide regret guarantees for both regimes, thereby quantifying the learning efficiency of our methods. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our BO-based methods outperform several state-of-the-art RL algorithms in terms of revenue, while requiring fewer assumptions and offering greater robustness. This highlights Bayesian Optimization as a powerful and practical tool for dynamic pricing in complex, uncertain environments.

Trade in Minutes! Rationality-Driven Agentic System for Quantitative Financial Trading

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) and agentic systems have shown exceptional decision-making capabilities, revealing significant potential for autonomic finance. Current financial trading agents predominantly simulate anthropomorphic roles that inadvertently introduce emotional biases and rely on peripheral information, while being constrained by the necessity for continuous inference during deployment. In this paper, we pioneer the harmonization of strategic depth in agents with the mechanical rationality essential for quantitative trading. Consequently, we present TiMi (Trade in Minutes), a rationality-driven multi-agent system that architecturally decouples strategy development from minute-level deployment. TiMi leverages specialized LLM capabilities of semantic analysis, code programming, and mathematical reasoning within a comprehensive policy-optimization-deployment chain. Specifically, we propose a two-tier analytical paradigm from macro patterns to micro customization, layered programming design for trading bot implementation, and closed-loop optimization driven by mathematical reflection. Extensive evaluations across 200+ trading pairs in stock and cryptocurrency markets empirically validate the efficacy of TiMi in stable profitability, action efficiency, and risk control under volatile market dynamics.

Modular and Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Sequential Models via Residual Decomposition

Conformal prediction offers finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions. However, existing methods treat the entire modeling process as a black box, overlooking opportunities to exploit modular structure. We introduce a conformal prediction framework for two-stage sequential models, where an upstream predictor generates intermediate representations for a downstream model. By decomposing the overall prediction residual into stage-specific components, our method enables practitioners to attribute uncertainty to specific pipeline stages. We develop a risk-controlled parameter selection procedure using family-wise error rate (FWER) control to calibrate stage-wise scaling parameters, and propose an adaptive extension for non-stationary settings that preserves long-run coverage guarantees. Experiments on synthetic distribution shifts, as well as real-world supply chain and stock market data, demonstrate that our approach maintains coverage under conditions that degrade standard conformal methods, while providing interpretable stage-wise uncertainty attribution. This framework offers diagnostic advantages and robust coverage that standard conformal methods lack.

From News to Returns: A Granger-Causal Hypergraph Transformer on the Sphere

We propose the Causal Sphere Hypergraph Transformer (CSHT), a novel architecture for interpretable financial time-series forecasting that unifies \emph{Granger-causal hypergraph structure}, \emph{Riemannian geometry}, and \emph{causally masked Transformer attention}. CSHT models the directional influence of financial news and sentiment on asset returns by extracting multivariate Granger-causal dependencies, which are encoded as directional hyperedges on the surface of a hypersphere. Attention is constrained via angular masks that preserve both temporal directionality and geometric consistency. Evaluated on S\&P 500 data from 2018 to 2023, including the 2020 COVID-19 shock, CSHT consistently outperforms baselines across return prediction, regime classification, and top-asset ranking tasks. By enforcing predictive causal structure and embedding variables in a Riemannian manifold, CSHT delivers both \emph{robust generalisation across market regimes} and \emph{transparent attribution pathways} from macroeconomic events to stock-level responses. These results suggest that CSHT is a principled and practical solution for trustworthy financial forecasting under uncertainty.