Enhancing Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Mutual Information-driven Cross-Variable and Temporal Modeling

Recent advancements have underscored the impact of deep learning techniques on multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). Generally, these techniques are bifurcated into two categories: Channel-independence and Channel-mixing approaches. Although Channel-independence methods typically yield better results, Channel-mixing could theoretically offer improvements by leveraging inter-variable correlations. Nonetheless, we argue that the integration of uncorrelated information in channel-mixing methods could curtail the potential enhancement in MTSF model performance. To substantiate this claim, we introduce the Cross-variable Decorrelation Aware feature Modeling (CDAM) for Channel-mixing approaches, aiming to refine Channel-mixing by minimizing redundant information between channels while enhancing relevant mutual information. Furthermore, we introduce the Temporal correlation Aware Modeling (TAM) to exploit temporal correlations, a step beyond conventional single-step forecasting methods. This strategy maximizes the mutual information between adjacent sub-sequences of both the forecasted and target series. Combining CDAM and TAM, our novel framework significantly surpasses existing models, including those previously considered state-of-the-art, in comprehensive tests.

Exploiting Counter-Examples for Active Learning with Partial labels

This paper studies a new problem, \emph{active learning with partial labels} (ALPL). In this setting, an oracle annotates the query samples with partial labels, relaxing the oracle from the demanding accurate labeling process. To address ALPL, we first build an intuitive baseline that can be seamlessly incorporated into existing AL frameworks. Though effective, this baseline is still susceptible to the \emph{overfitting}, and falls short of the representative partial-label-based samples during the query process. Drawing inspiration from human inference in cognitive science, where accurate inferences can be explicitly derived from \emph{counter-examples} (CEs), our objective is to leverage this human-like learning pattern to tackle the \emph{overfitting} while enhancing the process of selecting representative samples in ALPL. Specifically, we construct CEs by reversing the partial labels for each instance, and then we propose a simple but effective WorseNet to directly learn from this complementary pattern. By leveraging the distribution gap between WorseNet and the predictor, this adversarial evaluation manner could enhance both the performance of the predictor itself and the sample selection process, allowing the predictor to capture more accurate patterns in the data. Experimental results on five real-world datasets and four benchmark datasets show that our proposed method achieves comprehensive improvements over ten representative AL frameworks, highlighting the superiority of WorseNet. The source code will be available at \url{https://github.com/Ferenas/APLL}.

MTS-Mixers: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting via Factorized Temporal and Channel Mixing

Multivariate time series forecasting has been widely used in various practical scenarios. Recently, Transformer-based models have shown significant potential in forecasting tasks due to the capture of long-range dependencies. However, recent studies in the vision and NLP fields show that the role of attention modules is not clear, which can be replaced by other token aggregation operations. This paper investigates the contributions and deficiencies of attention mechanisms on the performance of time series forecasting. Specifically, we find that (1) attention is not necessary for capturing temporal dependencies, (2) the entanglement and redundancy in the capture of temporal and channel interaction affect the forecasting performance, and (3) it is important to model the mapping between the input and the prediction sequence. To this end, we propose MTS-Mixers, which use two factorized modules to capture temporal and channel dependencies. Experimental results on several real-world datasets show that MTS-Mixers outperform existing Transformer-based models with higher efficiency.

Ti-MAE: Self-Supervised Masked Time Series Autoencoders

Multivariate Time Series forecasting has been an increasingly popular topic in various applications and scenarios. Recently, contrastive learning and Transformer-based models have achieved good performance in many long-term series forecasting tasks. However, there are still several issues in existing methods. First, the training paradigm of contrastive learning and downstream prediction tasks are inconsistent, leading to inaccurate prediction results. Second, existing Transformer-based models which resort to similar patterns in historical time series data for predicting future values generally induce severe distribution shift problems, and do not fully leverage the sequence information compared to self-supervised methods. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework named Ti-MAE, in which the input time series are assumed to follow an integrate distribution. In detail, Ti-MAE randomly masks out embedded time series data and learns an autoencoder to reconstruct them at the point-level. Ti-MAE adopts mask modeling (rather than contrastive learning) as the auxiliary task and bridges the connection between existing representation learning and generative Transformer-based methods, reducing the difference between upstream and downstream forecasting tasks while maintaining the utilization of original time series data. Experiments on several public real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework of masked autoencoding could learn strong representations directly from the raw data, yielding better performance in time series forecasting and classification tasks.